ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

[South Texas Storms]

NHC 1 am Outlook: 30%-70%

"A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND BELIZE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OVER LAND TODAY AND ENTER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ON THURSDAY. SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AFTER THE
SYSTEM EMERGES OVER WATER...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ASSUMING THE SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER IN THE WEEK...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO."

[Extratropical94]

Large CDO now developing over the circulation.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[caneman]

Very impressive this morning.

[Alyono]

center west of the convection

[Extratropical94]

center west of the convection

Is it already inland?

EDIT: I've been looking at the BT positions. 87.1 to 88.0 W gives a 0.9 deg/6 hrs movement which leads to a current extrapolated position of about 18N 88.7W (about 40 miles inland).

[Javlin]

Hey I hope we all get some rain but not buying serious development with three (big)ULL's floating around in the Atlantic/Carib ATTM.These are spawning like cat litters!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

ULL's can also help vent and create outflow channels.....


here is another analog storm "Audrey"....if 93L is going to make a run at a hurricane in 2013 conditions why not try to be all it can be!!!

Understand Rock just that this year there proximity to the developing systems has been abit to much.There always seems to be two in the GOM/Carib region at any given time this year.

[KatDaddy]

A burst of convection ongoing with Invest 93L this morning. Tropical cyclone development remains high over the Bay of Campeche over the weekend. Models have trended back S overnight into MX well S of TX.

From the Ft Worth NWS morning AFD explains the scenario very well:

AGAIN NEXT WEEK/S FORECAST IS HIGHLY
SENSITIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT/TRACK OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM...WHICH IS
DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF AN UPPER HIGH...WHICH IN TURN IS
SENSITIVE TO THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN THE DATA VOID REGION BETWEEN ALASKA AND HAWAII.

[tailgater]

center west of the convection

Why do you think the center is west of the convection. I can't find any OB's showing that. Seems right along coast according to radar maybe slightly inland. Still looks a little troughy to me.

[Alyono]

extrapolation from the 6Z position places the center west of the convection

[cycloneye]

40%-70%

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD MOVE OVER LAND TODAY
AND ENTER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON THURSDAY WHEN SOME DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IF THE
SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE WEEK...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVER BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.

[wxman57]

I think 70% is about 30% too low. And if it stays over the BoC/SW Gulf as long as GFS is indicating not only will it almost certainly be a hurricane, but possibly a major hurricane.

[ninel conde]

I think 70% is about 30% too low. And if it stays over the BoC/SW Gulf as long as GFS is indicating not only will it almost certainly be a hurricane, but possibly a major hurricane.

conditions are favorable there.

[cycloneye]

I think 70% is about 30% too low. And if it stays over the BoC/SW Gulf as long as GFS is indicating not only will it almost certainly be a hurricane, but possibly a major hurricane.

You go that far about being a major?

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track.

AL, 93, 2013091112, , BEST, 0, 180N, 888W, 25, 1008, DB

[CrazyC83]

11/0545 UTC 17.5N 86.9W TOO WEAK 93L -- Atlantic

[ROCK]

extrapolation from the 6Z position places the center west of the convection

yeah but thats going off Best Track positions which at best is a guess....looking at 1km scan...no way that center is over land blowing up -80C tops in the morning....


I would go major for sure...

[Macrocane]

A very complex pattern is going to develop between 93L, the monsoon trough and another low pressure in the gulf of Tehuantepec. I'm eager to see how all they interact, a little Fujiwhara may take place and that's going to keep 93L a long time over water but it can cause some upwelling slowing the intensification process. Interesting days have alreday begun.

[cycloneye]

11/1215 UTC 17.6N 88.0W T1.0/1.0 93L -- Atlantic

[RL3AO]

Could get quite strong if its spends that much time over the BOC. Look at what those storms that have had 18 hours did.

[Alyono]

if it lingers in the BOC, it wont get above cat 2... too much upwelling would occur. See Nate from 2 years ago