ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[hurricaneCW]

Almost a classic developing system that we haven't seen too often, except that it's over land. Storms that looks this good over land generally do very well as soon as they hit the water pending any violent shear.

How is the shear expected to be anyway?

[floridasun78]

HWRF show going into boc and moving ne few day later but i dont see be strong as HWRF show

[floridasun78]

my weatherman say we could see second low could form west of florida like west of tampa area what he show on map

[TheStormExpert]

I'm still not going to jump the gun with this one and assume it will take off once it hits water sometime tomorrow. Look at what many on here were saying about Ingrid exploding in intensity and becoming possibly a major hurricane. It barely was a minimal hurricane, and did not even make landfall as one! I'm just still in shock after all the storms we've had this season have ended up underplaying.

[Annie Oakley]

my weatherman say we could see second low could form west of florida like west of tampa area what he show on map

That's messed up for Tampa floridasun-you said there's enough rain already.
Have to wait and see what happens.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Almost a classic developing system that we haven't seen too often, except that it's over land. Storms that looks this good over land generally do very well as soon as they hit the water pending any violent shear.

How is the shear expected to be anyway?

Less than 10 knots.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I'm still not going to jump the gun with this one and assume it will take off once it hits water sometime tomorrow. Look at what many on here were saying about Ingrid exploding in intensity and becoming possibly a major hurricane. It barely was a minimal hurricane, and did not even make landfall as one! I'm just still in shock after all the storms we've had this season have ended up underplaying.

To be fair, the only reason Ingrid didn't become a major hurricane was due to Tropical Storm Manuel. Global models underestimated the intensity of Manuel. There is no competing tropical cyclone here.

However, upper-level diffluence won't be focused for 95L like it was for Ingrid either. We should expect steady development in the BOC.

[Hurricaneman]

This is one of those systems that Joe Bastardi would say will cause great wailing and gnashing of teeth, it has the type of setup that could either head right into Mexico to nail the Tampa area so its going to be a long week ahead for the pros and non pros alike

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ozonepete]

I have read before that when some poorly-defined systems move over land, the friction (or some other forces) can cause the system to tighten up and look a little better. Maybe one of our more experienced posters can elaborate.

Well I've never seen that in the literature myself, but it seems sensible in a way. When a hurricane makes landfall, besides the loss of the moist air fuel of the ocean, the land friction causes the winds to turn inward more towards the center and this fills the rain-free, relatively drier warm eye with moist wind and so the hurricane is said to "fill and dissipate." A tropical depression or developing disturbance like this with a COC doesn't have an eye so friction won't "fill in" the center. Rather it could concentrate winds toward the center and this could add to vorticity (spin) so that it can maintain its mid and low level circulations pretty well. That in turn would allow thunderstorms to keep building over the center.
What's more important here that I see is that it is not only keeping its vorticity very well but thunderstorms (convection) are blowing up nicely near the center and there is a lot of good outflow over it (the feathery high cirrus clouds spinning clockwise over it). And the thunderstorms are maintaining near the center (low shear). All of this happening over land is pretty impressive. Though it's important to note that both Florida and the Yucatan are very flat and usually very moist so they offer little inhibition to tropical cyclone development. I will never forget Katrina passing over Florida and strengthening as it went towards its destiny in the GOM.

[tailgater]

I'm not sure exactly when (7-10 yrs ago) the NHC name a disturbance a TD while ove the Yucatan. Nice explaination.

[chaser1]

:uarrow: I'm not sure exactly when (7-10 yrs ago) the NHC name a disturbance a TD while ove the Yucatan. Nice explaination.

Tailgater, you beat me to it LOL; I was also trying to remember which systems but seem to beleive there were more than one that was either newly tagged a depression while crossing the "Y" and am pretty sure at least one or two that were upgraded from depression to storm while doing the same.

[Evil Jeremy]

:uarrow: I'm not sure exactly when (7-10 yrs ago) the NHC name a disturbance a TD while ove the Yucatan. Nice explaination.

[psyclone]

Evil Jeremy beat me to it! Good job,lol

[psyclone]

I'm not convinced we will see a coherent TC threat in the states from this (of course it can't be ruled out either) but I do think a more meaningful heavy rain threat may eventually materialize for someone and that risk may involve a wide geographic area if an east/west oriented front resides across the south to serve as a lifting mechanism. a big dumping of heavy rain in areas that have already experienced a wet summer and would therefore be more prone to flooding (including main stem, big watershed rivers) is my biggest concern at this point.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[supercane4867]

Another inland TCFA


SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.6N 90.8W TO 21.5N
95.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 180139Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.8N 88.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING INTENSIFICATION OF
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS APPROXIMATELY 814 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BROWNSVILLE, TX. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT
APPROXIMATELY 5 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM
IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAK SURFACE
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 83 TO 85 DEGREES WILL AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE. WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 5 TO
10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTER OF THIS CIRCULATION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR MORE INFORMATION REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
HUMBERTO (09L) WARNINGS (WTNT01 KNGU) FOR SIX HOURLY UPDATES.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
190200Z.//

[supercane4867]

70/80%

SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR DATA FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE LOW
IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE LATER TODAY...WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE THE LOW MEANDERS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY SPREAD HEAVY
RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS ALREADY IMPACTED BY
TORRENTIAL RAINS DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS.

[northjaxpro]

The system looks impressive right now. Convection continues to build near the LLC, even over land. Shear looks to be very low and conditions look rather favorable the next several days for this system to develop.

[GCANE]

Looks like that mid-level dry slot, running from the BOC to Tampa Bay, may be the effect of a large upper-tropospheric PV anomaly.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+24

It appears to me, convection over the Yucatan is raining itself out and could be more shear-induced MCS.

Rain-rate is low. This makes sense, particularly with the 200mb vorticity over it.

The dry slot seems to be filling in with convective debris from the Mexico TC remnants.

However, this will be a slow process.

I am not expecting much development for at least 24 to 36 hrs.

That dry slot needs to fill in so that the PV anomaly can dissipate.

[stormkite]

Based on all of the information thus far, IMO further strengthening, slow at first entrance into the BOC, and steadier once the upper air pattern becomes more conducive. All of this could change, depending on whether a center reformation takes place as we saw with Ingrid. Actual track is going to rely on 2 major items right now…whether or not the steering forecast remains the same, and the forward speed of the system. The faster, then more toward Mexico. Slower, and the threat for the U.S. Gulf Coast increases.

Given the uncertainty of this developing system, Residents from the TX/MEX border to the Central Louisiana coast should monitor the progress of this system closel

http://stormw.files.wordpress.com/2013/ ... est95l.gif




Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE
THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR THE WEST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE.....70 PERCENT OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY SPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN MEXICO AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS ALREADY IMPACTED BY TORRENTIAL RAINS DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.