ATL: KAREN - Models

[stormlover2013]

Euro has been stuck on LA for a couple runs now

[ROCK]

Euro has been stuck on LA for a couple runs now

yep, doesnt want to develop it once in the GOM, neither does the 12Z CMC/NAM/NAVGEM which are all pretty close in track so far.

[stormlover2013]

That trough or front thats coming its been delayed more and more so who knows

[LaBreeze]

That trough or front thats coming its been delayed more and more so who knows

Local mets have been saying this for the past day or so - the front may be delayed a bit and not as strong as once thought.

[Dean4Storms]

18z NAVGEM much further east and develops this and 18z GFS still ramping up and between Panama City and Appalachicola.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2013100218/navgem_mslp_wind_watl.html

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013100218/gfs_mslp_wind_watl.html

[Frank P]

NAVGEM takes it right over the MS coast Biloxi/Gulfport area...

[MGC]

Thanks for that good news (not) Frank! We have Cruising the Coast starting this weekend, a week long classic car show, so that would not be good......MGC

[Frank P]

Hopefully this will be outta here NLT Sunday... if it even comes... Cruisin really doesn't get cranked up until later in the week... one day of bad weather would be OK if the rest of the week is good... me, I'm -removed- for a more eastern solution.... send it to the pandhandle... sorry FL...

[Aric Dunn]

GFS actually farther east again and stronger.

[Pearl River]

For what it's worth, the 18z NAM has it over LA. Again, I preface it with for what it's worth.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2013100218/namconus_reflectivity_us.html

[Javlin]

Hopefully this will be outta here NLT Sunday... if it even comes... Cruisin really doesn't get cranked up until later in the week... one day of bad weather would be OK if the rest of the week is good... me, I'm -removed- for a more eastern solution.... send it to the pandhandle... sorry FL...

Come on Frank ! We need to test out that beach front property

[ROCK]

18z NAVGEM much further east and develops this and 18z GFS still ramping up and between Panama City and Appalachicola.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2013100218/navgem_mslp_wind_watl.html

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013100218/gfs_mslp_wind_watl.html

actually the NAVGEM goes into LA before going east....just like the 12Z run and ends up at the same place.... no difference in development either with 1008mbish.....

18Z NAM a smidge east than last run but not by much....still 1005-1010ish looking....not much to look at...

[Janie2006]

Gah. Nothing like a sheared tropical system to ruin Cruisin' on the Coast. I'm looking forward to spying a VW Cabriolet. Still, it's hard to tell atm with no real center to focus on.

[ROCK]

18Z HWRF doesnt have much into FL. Weak TS now than earlier run.

18Z GFDL has a fairly strong TS skirting LA before going up into MS / AL area.

only model showing any significant intensity is the GFS. No other model, not even the CMC, show a deep storm. At 84-90hrs out models seem to be pretty good. Somethings got to give with the EURO though as it doesnt really develop it at all whereas the GFS does.....

[Janie2006]

If I'm not mistaken the Euro has been very consistent with this system, hasn't it?

[caneman]

Can someone post the GFS run that Aric is referring to?

[Frank P]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013100218/gfs_mslp_wind_watl.html[/quote]

[Alyono]

the EC has predicted 2 of the 10 storms so far

How long before a few here stop hugging the euro?

[caneman]

the EC has predicted 2 of the 10 storms so far

How long before a few here stop hugging the euro?

Glad a Met said it. I've been saying this all along. Euro is way over hyped on here. A blend of models should always be used.

[caneman]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013100218/gfs_mslp_wind_watl.html

Thanks Frank