WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon
This is simply ghastly. And to know that they had a 7.1 earthquake not too long ago. By the way, has anyone heard from our fellow member, xtyphooncyclonex?
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Re: Re:
RL3AO wrote:Alyono wrote:http://news.yahoo.com/philippines-says-least-100-dead-typhoon-haiyan-014400919.html
bodies are in the streets
Surge surge surge. Water water water. Flooding flooding flooding.
Those are the words that should be mentioned over and over again before a storm hits.
Not 190 mph, category 5, and record winds.
In this case, there will likely be numerous killed due to wind, since we were reaching Joplin tornado levels. Often,people are now evacuating for those types of winds in tornadoes as we've seen what happened. So I wouldn't be surprised if many of the deaths this time were wind (also numerous surge as well)
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Re: Re:
Alyono wrote:
In this case, there will likely be numerous killed due to wind, since we were reaching Joplin tornado levels. Often,people are now evacuating for those types of winds in tornadoes as we've seen what happened. So I wouldn't be surprised if many of the deaths this time were wind (also numerous surge as well)
Likely a higher then usual amount of wind deaths. However this is the outlier IMO. Too many die from surge/flooding compared to the attention winds/SSHS rating get beforehand.
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Re: Re:
RL3AO wrote:Alyono wrote:
In this case, there will likely be numerous killed due to wind, since we were reaching Joplin tornado levels. Often,people are now evacuating for those types of winds in tornadoes as we've seen what happened. So I wouldn't be surprised if many of the deaths this time were wind (also numerous surge as well)
Likely a higher then usual amount of wind deaths. However this is the outlier IMO. Too many die from surge/flooding compared to the attention winds/SSHS rating get beforehand.
No question this is the outlier. It's just when these extreme storms come, whether or not an area gets a surge won't matter. Total destruction and large loss of life will occur regardless.
Probably given the wind, most of the damage will be from wind in this storm, similar to Andrew despite its 17 foot surge
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon
hurricanes1234 wrote:This is simply ghastly. And to know that they had a 7.1 earthquake not too long ago. By the way, has anyone heard from our fellow member, xtyphooncyclonex?
Power went back. Worst typhoon I have ever experienced! My grandfather was in Tacloban and we never heard of him. Winds were howling us eve if we are far.
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- xtyphooncyclonex
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Fallen trees and no water. Cebu was also terribly affected... Thank God it is sunny!
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xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Fallen trees and no water. Cebu was also terribly affected... Thank God it is sunny!
We are thankful that you are fine after this event.
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- xtyphooncyclonex
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We cannot call anyone! Cell sites in Cebu are also broken. I was able to post at 4pm because of the iPhone's wiFi.
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Effects in Cebu: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IsnerNRkLTY
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Re:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Effects in Cebu: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IsnerNRkLTY
Thank God you are okay!!!!!
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Re: Re:
Alyono wrote:RL3AO wrote:Alyono wrote:
In this case, there will likely be numerous killed due to wind, since we were reaching Joplin tornado levels. Often,people are now evacuating for those types of winds in tornadoes as we've seen what happened. So I wouldn't be surprised if many of the deaths this time were wind (also numerous surge as well)
Likely a higher then usual amount of wind deaths. However this is the outlier IMO. Too many die from surge/flooding compared to the attention winds/SSHS rating get beforehand.
No question this is the outlier. It's just when these extreme storms come, whether or not an area gets a surge won't matter. Total destruction and large loss of life will occur regardless.
Probably given the wind, most of the damage will be from wind in this storm, similar to Andrew despite its 17 foot surge
That seems quite likely, but the surge area will be much larger than the wind area. Even if they missed the eyewall, there is no missing such a massive storm surge.
The pics from Ormoc (50 miles inland from the Leyte landfall) show the wind damage well. Trees debarked and buildings flattened - and that is as it was emerging back over water - clearly Category 4-5 level wind damage (I don't remember seeing debarked trees anywhere during Katrina, and even during Charley I can't remember reading about such in the landfall zone), and not even from exposure over water. That would be equivalent to such levels of damage in Houston from a Galveston landfall.
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon
Vietnamese people need to start or rather, finish preparing now, as this typhoon is going to make landfall there soon.
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PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
Power restored here in Batangas. Very strong wind gusts throughout the evening. Some roofing of our balcony got flown away! Batangas is not even at the direct path of the storm.
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Re: Re:
Alyono wrote:RL3AO wrote:Alyono wrote:
In this case, there will likely be numerous killed due to wind, since we were reaching Joplin tornado levels. Often,people are now evacuating for those types of winds in tornadoes as we've seen what happened. So I wouldn't be surprised if many of the deaths this time were wind (also numerous surge as well)
Likely a higher then usual amount of wind deaths. However this is the outlier IMO. Too many die from surge/flooding compared to the attention winds/SSHS rating get beforehand.
No question this is the outlier. It's just when these extreme storms come, whether or not an area gets a surge won't matter. Total destruction and large loss of life will occur regardless.
Probably given the wind, most of the damage will be from wind in this storm, similar to Andrew despite its 17 foot surge
Wind, even in this situation, is still more survivable than a storm surge is. Hide from wind, run from surge has always been the mantra of emergency management authorities. Even the most well-constructed bunker is a deathtrap if it's overtaken by water.
RL3AO wrote:Alyono wrote:http://news.yahoo.com/philippines-says-least-100-dead-typhoon-haiyan-014400919.html
bodies are in the streets
Surge surge surge. Water water water. Flooding flooding flooding.
Those are the words that should be mentioned over and over again before a storm hits.
Not 190 mph, category 5, and record winds.
Reports I saw before the storm suggested most of the coastal residents just didn't comprehend what a storm surge was or why they had to leave. Even the authorities - not blaming PAGASA as they did forecast a 15 foot surge - didn't seem to understand the threat well, or at least they didn't communicate it well. Think about it - in most of the Philippines, there's a sharp drop-off to the Philippine Trench right offshore, which mitigates surges. The Leyte Gulf is one of the few natural "surge traps" and at such a low latitude, strong typhoons are pretty rare in that location. I suspect it's just a foreign concept to many Philippine people. There isn't even a Tagalog word for "storm surge".
When we were talking to Stormstrike from Tacloban earlier in this thread (around Page 25) he was concerned about Haiyan, but only about the winds and maybe rain flooding, and he felt somewhat safe because his house is concrete, his trees were tripped back, and he has supplies. I asked him his elevation above sea level and he had no idea and didn't realize it was even a concern. I told him the storm surge will be like a tsunami and he freaked out. Everybody around the world understands tsunamis after all the videos of the past few years, and that's the type of visceral language that needs to be used to communicate the threat of storm surge flooding in the future.
I hope Stormstrike is safe and checks in soon, and I'm glad to see many of you others from the region are checking back in now.
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon
JMA forecast is for Haiyan to follow the Vietnamese coastline with eventual landfall in Northern Vietnam - meaning no severe landfall.
The JTWC forecast is unavailable and the direct links are not viewable here.
Can someone copy the JTWC forecast graphic and post a follow up in this thread
Thanks
The JTWC forecast is unavailable and the direct links are not viewable here.
Can someone copy the JTWC forecast graphic and post a follow up in this thread
Thanks
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon
madness wrote:JMA forecast is for Haiyan to follow the Vietnamese coastline with eventual landfall in Northern Vietnam - meaning no severe landfall.
The JTWC forecast is unavailable and the direct links are not viewable here.
Can someone copy the JTWC forecast graphic and post a follow up in this thread
Thanks
Here is the 03:00 UTC warning.
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon
cycloneye wrote:madness wrote:JMA forecast is for Haiyan to follow the Vietnamese coastline with eventual landfall in Northern Vietnam - meaning no severe landfall.
The JTWC forecast is unavailable and the direct links are not viewable here.
Can someone copy the JTWC forecast graphic and post a follow up in this thread
Thanks
Here is the 03:00 UTC warning.
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R ... wp3113.gif
How in the world did they get a position of 12.3N. Did they even bother looking at a satellite image? It is clearly at 13N. That is off by about 45NM!
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My prayers and thoughts to everyone who had to live through this monster. I think we can argue how much preparation and which was more deadly wind or surge, but in the end when you have something as intense as Haiyan was it's just unavoidable and we knew there was going to be a death toll if not significant.
As a weather enthusiast Haiyan definitely opened doors to us westerners that understand little about this basin. It is the world's largest basin and storms like this (maybe not this kind of record breaking yearly) is much more common than we are accustomed to seeing. Perhaps this will open doors to more posters frequenting the WPAC to see these majestic storms that are amongst the most powerful than anywhere else on earth on a yearly basis.
As a weather enthusiast Haiyan definitely opened doors to us westerners that understand little about this basin. It is the world's largest basin and storms like this (maybe not this kind of record breaking yearly) is much more common than we are accustomed to seeing. Perhaps this will open doors to more posters frequenting the WPAC to see these majestic storms that are amongst the most powerful than anywhere else on earth on a yearly basis.
Last edited by Ntxw on Fri Nov 08, 2013 10:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:
Ntxw wrote:My prayers and thoughts to everyone who had to live through this monster. I think we can argue how much preparation and which was more deadly wind or surge, but in the end when you have something as intense as Haiyan was it's just unavoidable and we knew there was going to be a death toll if not significant.
As a weather enthusiast Haiyan definitely open doors to us westerners that understand little about this basin. It is the world's largest basin and storms like this (maybe not this kind of record breaking yearly) is much more common than we are accustomed to seeing. Perhaps this will open doors to more posters frequenting the WPAC to see these majestic storms that are amongst the most powerful than anywhere else on earth on a yearly basis.
Well said.
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