ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

maybe some convection coming back can see a little red back in there.

[ozonepete]

Now I hope a lot of this is joking around. I wasn't around here today when it was sheared for a few hours. Was everyone on here declaring it dead then? I hope not, because they would have been really wrong a few hours later. I think we all need to take a little more time than 3 hours of a satellite loop before coming up with a drastically different forecast than the NHC has and declaring that shear has gotten huge and it's ingesting a ton of dry air.

[tailgater]

I'm no pro med But he still has good structure and a nice outflow in all directions.
It's trying to fight off a few things that are not enough to kill it off individually but combined might. probably just pulse up and down for the next couple days.IMHO

[wxman57]

Definitely struggling with dry air. Not sure it will survive the next 2-3 days. If it does, then I think it'll strengthen near the Bahamas.

[TheStormExpert]

Local mets. in my area too have been saying it might not survive the next 2-3 days as well.

[RL3AO]

Now I hope a lot of this is joking around. I wasn't around here today when it was sheared for a few hours. Was everyone on here declaring it dead then? I hope not, because they would have been really wrong a few hours later. I think we all need to take a little more time than 3 hours of a satellite loop before coming up with a drastically different forecast than the NHC has and declaring that shear has gotten huge and it's ingesting a ton of dry air.

This happens every evening with weak storms. It is declared dead when convection wanes. Come morning it will be declared to be a major within 36 hours.

[cycloneye]

Surprise as 00z Best Track stays at 50kts.

AL, 04, 2013072600, , BEST, 0, 164N, 387W, 50, 999, TS

[cycloneye]

00z guidance.

WHXX01 KWBC 260036
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0036 UTC FRI JUL 26 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN (AL042013) 20130726 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130726 0000 130726 1200 130727 0000 130727 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.4N 38.7W 17.4N 42.9W 18.0N 47.1W 18.5N 51.1W
BAMD 16.4N 38.7W 17.4N 41.6W 18.2N 44.3W 18.9N 46.7W
BAMM 16.4N 38.7W 17.5N 42.1W 18.3N 45.3W 18.8N 48.3W
LBAR 16.4N 38.7W 17.2N 42.1W 18.1N 45.8W 18.7N 49.5W
SHIP 50KTS 50KTS 50KTS 51KTS
DSHP 50KTS 50KTS 50KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130728 0000 130729 0000 130730 0000 130731 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.8N 54.9W 19.1N 62.0W 19.3N 68.9W 18.7N 76.2W
BAMD 19.3N 48.7W 19.3N 52.1W 18.1N 54.8W 16.8N 57.5W
BAMM 19.3N 51.0W 19.7N 56.3W 19.6N 61.1W 19.8N 65.6W
LBAR 19.3N 52.9W 19.5N 59.3W 18.9N 65.1W 0.0N 0.0W
SHIP 51KTS 54KTS 54KTS 48KTS
DSHP 51KTS 54KTS 54KTS 48KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.4N LONCUR = 38.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 15.6N LONM12 = 35.3W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 14.9N LONM24 = 32.4W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 999MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 40NM

[Decomdoug]

Ah the evening. Like clockwork the "it looks like garbage" posts come.

Would you like to make a wager on how soon before the "Bones, McCoy" post start?

[ozonepete]

Now I hope a lot of this is joking around. I wasn't around here today when it was sheared for a few hours. Was everyone on here declaring it dead then? I hope not, because they would have been really wrong a few hours later. I think we all need to take a little more time than 3 hours of a satellite loop before coming up with a drastically different forecast than the NHC has and declaring that shear has gotten huge and it's ingesting a ton of dry air.

This happens every evening with weak storms. It is declared dead when convection wanes. Come morning it will be declared to be a major within 36 hours.

Lol, yeah I saw your earlier post. Since convection is beginning to fire right over the center again I guess we might not even have to wait until morning for the major declarations.

[torrea40]

Surprise as 00z Best Track stays at 50kts.

AL, 04, 2013072600, , BEST, 0, 164N, 387W, 50, 999, TS

Advisory # 7 Dorian was on 16.5......

[chaser1]

So what is your opinion, is it turning into bones you think? or the 'calm before the storm' so to speak.. you think it will strengthen?

Yep..., I think I'm seeing bones......

"...but Jim, he's still breathing?! You're not gonna just leave him for dead!
"...Bones, there's an entire season to worry about; Dorian will be well remembered...
"...Jim, you can't leave him exposed to the elements - the dry air will kill him within 36 hr.'s. That's simply murder!

[ozonepete]

Surprise as 00z Best Track stays at 50kts.

AL, 04, 2013072600, , BEST, 0, 164N, 387W, 50, 999, TS

Advisory # 7 Dorian was on 16.5......

It sure looks like the center readjusted a little more westward over the last few hours. And it looks pretty good to me after a brief symmetry problem.

[northjaxpro]

DecomDoug, now lwt's not get to far out there yet. We have a long way out yet before we even start mentioning Bones LOL.. Come on people.

I noticed that the pressure has also dropped with Dorian, now at 999 mb compared to 1002 mb from earlier this afternoon.

[blp]

This thing nearly has 0 model support at the moment.

I would not go that far. There is a lot of model support in the 5 day period. After the 5 days the 18z GFS loses it because it get's shredded by Hispaniola. The other models have it but clearly there has been a weakening trend today overall. This is not Chantal which really did have little to no model support during most of its life. I am highly suspect of the GFS though, interested to see if the 00z keeps this trend going. I think it will come back north of Hispaniola with the rest of the models.

[chaser1]

Ah the evening. Like clockwork the "it looks like garbage" posts come.

Would you like to make a wager on how soon before the "Bones, McCoy" post start?

...but Captain, we have no more force fields to protect him.......

[ozonepete]

It is also detaching from the last connection it had with the ITCZ and becoming a completely separate entity. Seems to be accomplishing that nicely.

[Decomdoug]

[quote="northjaxpro"]DecomDoug, now lwt's not get to far out there yet. We have a long way out yet before we even start mentioning Bones LOL.. Come on people.

That was my dry attempt at humor, not a serious conjecture.

[Hammy]

To throw in my two cents, if it is detaching from the ITCZ, I assume this could potentially cause a temporary reduction in convective intensity as its shedding a source of energy, similar to how many convection-heavy subtropical cyclones seem to flare down in convection as they separate from the frontal system before strengthening.

[blp]

I think it still has a nice pocket of moisture and it seems to have handled the westerly dry air intrusion pretty good today. Yes the easterly based dry air is creeping up fast but Dorian is moving at good clip to keep it at bay. I not ready to let my guard down on this one.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif