WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

JTWC 03:00 UTC warning.

[tolakram]

According to this analysis available energy will be rising in 12 hours.

[ozonepete]

ADT is obsessed with an defined eye on satellite imagery that it tends to reject any storm without one

Lol, well that's a little exaggerated. It has multiple programs to assess TCs without an eye. It just tends to do best with ones that do. The problem is that we don't have any other particular product to use that has shown to do better. There are scatterometer products such as OSCAT and windsat and satellite cloud motion derived wind products that do a decent job with weaker storms but get too much back-scattering from heavy rain to do well with stronger ones. It is only ADT that told us that Haiyan was the strongest TC to ever make landfall. Every other product only played a supporting role. That's just the way the state of the art is right now - it is just the way it is.

Subjective human-based Dvorak estimates also had a T8.0 as Haiyan approached landfall. Right now, it looks like between a T4.5 and T5.0.

Hi crazy. And subjective human-based interpretations of Dvorak numbers are still the ones I trust most, my friend. T4.5 to T5.0 gives us 77 knots to 90 knots, the average of which is 84 knots. That's reasonable, although I prefer to average that with the automated ADT such as CIMSS uses; that would give us 60 knots from CIMSS averaged with 84 knots from subjective ADT which is 72 knots. We always have the 2 estimates as it landfalls when we can use station winds to get an idea of how the 2 compare. Even though station winds are often sporadic and unreliable themselves they frequently support the lower numbers. As we know, it's only RECON that really confirms things for us in an undisputed way. Unfortunately we don't get them out there in the Westpac.

[ozonepete]

ADT is obsessed with an defined eye on satellite imagery that it tends to reject any storm without one

Lol, well that's a little exaggerated. It has multiple programs to assess TCs without an eye. It just tends to do best with ones that do. The problem is that we don't have any other particular product to use that has shown to do better. There are scatterometer products such as OSCAT and windsat and satellite cloud motion derived wind products that do a decent job with weaker storms but get too much back-scattering from heavy rain to do well with stronger ones. It is only ADT that told us that Haiyan was the strongest TC to ever make landfall. Every other product only played a supporting role. That's just the way the state of the art is right now - it is just the way it is.

Subjective human-based Dvorak estimates also had a T8.0 as Haiyan approached landfall. Right now, it looks like between a T4.5 and T5.0.

Supporting my explanation that Dvorak estimate numbers are all we have, whether they're interpreted or raw output.

[ozonepete]

According to this analysis available energy will be rising in 12 hours.
http://img203.imageshack.us/img203/3397/6d1.gif

But too much land interaction will mitigate that. Which is very hopeful for Viet Nam.

[stormkite]

[stormkite]

[dexterlabio]

Christ, if initially there are 10000 people feared dead in Leyte alone, how about those in Eastern Samar area? There are also reports of casualties coming in from the rest of Visayas, Bicol and Southern Luzon. This may not only be the strongest tropical cyclone in decades, but also the deadliest who ever hit land.

[madness]

Aug 22, 2011 - In November 1970, the Bhola Cyclone smashed into East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) and West Bengal (India) and killed at least 500000

There have been extremely horrific natural disasters in the past, but I don't think anything off this scale has affected the Philippines in the last 100 years.

[apocalypt-flyer]

Yeah, pretty much my line of thought, too, dexterlabio. If that's 10,000 in Leyte alone I'd hate to know the final number once the other dozen or so provinces are adeed, especially the ones hit hardest by Haiyan like Eastern Samar.

I hate to join the ones in the doomsday camp but I'm in line with their thinking in that the casualties will be in the several 10,000s range once more detailed information emerges or rather once the Red Cross and the government have a clear overall impression in a few days' time. Awful awful stuff.

I think it's fair to say there hasn't been a Typhoon as deadly as this one this side of the century mark, Nargis aside.

[Sanibel]

Right of track and showing TS expected for landfall.


The small islands of Calicoan and Suluan south of Guiuan have little villages on them. Those islands took the full ocean brunt of Haiyan. The good thing is they are volcanic islands so maybe the people could go uphill and hide behind rocks or in caves but the stories from there have to be brutal.

[FireRat]

I am aghast at what I have seen on the news regarding this killer typhoon's devastation! I also agree that more than 10,000 fatalities is unfortunately a high likelihood.

This storm spelled doom for real.

The link below has several impactful images of the latest we know about Haiyan's epic destruction:

http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/09/world/asia/philippines-tacloban/

With all that has become clear so far, this month's devastating event has undoubtedly become the world's worst natural disaster since the 2011 Japan Tsunami, and the worst hurricane/typhoon/cyclone disaster since 2008's Myanmar Cyclone.

[ozonepete]

This is just so horrific, so depressing. It just seems so certain now that the death toll will be very, very high. It's hard to even look at the news reports.

[euro6208]

i'm thinking around 25,000 might have perished but i still might be on the low side.

[wxmann_91]

It looks like Haiyan is about to make landfall on Hainan Island in China. This is much further east than any of the model guidance has been showing. Surprise, surprise.

[ozonepete]

It looks like Haiyan is about to make landfall on Hainan Island in China. This is much further east than any of the model guidance has been showing. Surprise, surprise.

Yeah 91, I posted earlier this evening that it looked like it was going north and east of the forecast track and might clip Hainan. Now it looks like it indeed might plow right into it.

[Alyono]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/11/0 ... l?ir=World

300 confirmed dead in Basey with 2,000 missing. This in Semar

[supercane4867]

My friend in Hainan said there's typhoon force wind occuring in Sanya, they are definitely taking a direct hit

[ozonepete]

My friend in Hainan said there's typhoon force wind occuring in Sanya, they are definitely taking a direct hit

The eye is making landfall just to their west so they are in the worst part of it - the right front quadrant. I hope they are ok my friend.

[Alyono]

made a slight west wobble. Looks like the eye will avoid Hainan, but they are getting the eyewall