ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[ROCK]

If you squint real hard and wish cast just a little, it almost seems to be heading WNW. Personally, I have a cruise leaving from Galveston on Sun so I hope Karen doesn't make too much trouble over this way!!!

You might get a shower as the front pushes up moisture from the GOM...might be somewhat breezy out there but for a cruise ship your not going to feel a thing.... Karen is toast and will be nothing but a bunch of clouds if she even makes it this far.....

[floridasun78]

it look like area rain moving toward fl west coast not northern gulf so may good weather in north fl and northern gulf coast

[ROCK]

I don't think I have ever been in a naked LLC before so this would kinda cool...

[MGC]

40mph at 1am,,,,might be a TD or remnant low when and if Karen crosses the coast.....MGC

[Texashawk]

Thanks, guys. I'm pulling for a decent cyclone like the rest... Just not the week of my vacation, darn it!!!

[Hammy]

Recon data seems to support at least 50 mph o.o

[Airboy]

From recon it looks like it have started to move a bit north, maybe the turn to NE.

Edit: or maybe not, looks like the center took a "jump" to the west again.
I wonder if the center just broke down.... no clear or weak circulation on the NW side of the center.

[wxman57]

40mph at 1am,,,,might be a TD or remnant low when and if Karen crosses the coast.....MGC

I think it's already there. Recon not finding any TS wind. Squalls are displaced over 100 miles ESE of the swirl. This swirl would not qualify for upgrade to a TD.

[Airboy]

If it keeps this trend it will not be much left soon. I wonder how the wind field around the connections SE of the LLC looks like, if a new center could form in that if the first one breaks down.

[johngaltfla]

From 10 PM discussion:

KAREN HAS BEEN DECAPITATED BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND NOW
CONSISTS OF A VERY TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME LINEAR
CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

What a great disco. That has to be a first for the NHC.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

How is this still a storm much less a depression? If this wasn't already named this would be an invest at best. This thing is done. Low level swirl headed towards sw LA and no storms anywhere close to it nor will there be. What a season to remember

Well off to the golf course. Who would of ever thought being able to play golf with no rain the day a tropical storm was 150 miles off our coast

[Ntxw]

Well the famed dmax did give her a new blob on the SE side. Unfortunately they are still being blown off by shear. I'd put up naked swirl warnings for the LA coast.

[MONTEGUT_LA]

That's ridiculous. I guess people just like the rush or whatever you want to call it of being in the mix. Kind of like shopping at 3 in the morning on black friday. Dumb.

I agree. It is stupid. This storm will prob not even blow a few branches of my trees. Chances are slim to none that I will loose power here in Thibodaux esp being on the west side of a naked swirl.

We went last night to pull up our boats in cocodrie. It felt so good. I love Tropical winds and on my Birthday!!! Anyway, the waters were a little rough but not coming up yet. I serious think a few branches down the bayou will fall, but people down here still have memories of Gustav/Ike. No food or water in Houma. We had to travel to Bayou Vista and they were limited. And Hurricane Cindy where we were told only light rain. Trust me, it wasnt just light rain. The house was shaking and you could see things flying around. Upper Terrebonne and Lafourche didnt get nothing to talk about, but the lower parsihes, will tell a different story. So if you ever been in a situation (especially with kids), you kinda use caution no matter what the weather people say. I don't see a reason to fight over supplies, but I can see the reason behind no supplies left on the shelves.

[wxman57]

How is this still a storm much less a depression? If this wasn't already named this would be an invest at best. This thing is done. Low level swirl headed towards sw LA and no storms anywhere close to it nor will there be. What a season to remember

Well off to the golf course. Who would of ever thought being able to play golf with no rain the day a tropical storm was 150 miles off our coast

Of course, it isn't a tropical storm. But the NHC's primary goal is public safety. They can see there is no evidence that Karen is a TS, but they appear to be calling it a TS so that the public do not let their guards down just in case it regains TS strength before landfall. They can only do this for so long, however, as even TWC is questioning the continued TS classification. NHC will have to relent and admit there is no longer any tropical storm threat on the Gulf Coast sometime today.

[Storm Rider]

Well off to the golf course. Who would of ever thought being able to play golf with no rain the day a tropical storm was 150 miles off our coast

Better unpack your golf cart Mike...I'm just a few miles down Airline Hwy from you and Karen's steadily raining on me.

"Naked Swirl", lol, is that really an official meteorological term? Sounds like a good time to me.

[Dean4Storms]

A little life popping up just east of the center this morning.

[CrazyC83]

What are the chances of a center relocation in the convection?

[Dean4Storms]

What are the chances of a center relocation in the convection?

Very slim with this front approaching, just not much time.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm still thinking there is a very small chance it tries to get its act together once it begins to move east. Andrea proved back in early June that a sheared system moving in tandem with the shear can deepen.

[Dean4Storms]

This went down with cooler SST's...... Although Karen is battling very dry air as well!


TROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
400 AM CDT THU JUN 06 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT ANDREA IS STRONGER. THE PLANE REPORTED
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 63 KNOTS AT 5000 FEET AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR
WINDS OF 49 KNOTS IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE CENTRAL PRESSURES
REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WERE 997 MB FROM A DROP AND 996 MB
EXTRAPOLATED. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS. WE MUST EMPHASIZE THAT THESE STRONG WINDS
ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

ANDREA IS PROBABLY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY SINCE STRONG SHEAR SHOULD
HALT ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL. ANDREA WILL
INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...BUT TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.