WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

[PaulR]

My wife and I are hearing so many horror stories -- in addition to those found here -- it makes little sense to post them all here. I had to take a break from it for a while today, tho' even that makes me feel guilty.

However, this article in particular seems to have a lot of information:

http://www.sunstar.com.ph/breaking-news ... 000-313028

In particular, this line struck me:

The water was as high as a coconut tree," said 44-year-old Sandy Torotoro

There's also a picture of the devasted Tacloban airport, and a slide show of pictures from Ormoc City.

I sure hope our (US) military can get in there quickly, and help in a big way, or the aftermath effects will get even worse. The Philippines just doesn't have the heavy air lift capability to get enough supplies in, fast enough.

[ozonepete]

made a slight west wobble. Looks like the eye will avoid Hainan, but they are getting the eyewall

did you mean east wobble?

[Alyono]

made a slight west wobble. Looks like the eye will avoid Hainan, but they are getting the eyewall

did you mean east wobble?

no, the eye is passing just west of Hainan. Figures Haiyan decided to wallop Hainan Island while remaining offshore. It seems determined to do as much damage as possible

[ozonepete]

made a slight west wobble. Looks like the eye will avoid Hainan, but they are getting the eyewall

did you mean east wobble?

no, the eye is passing just west of Hainan. Figures Haiyan decided to wallop Hainan Island while remaining offshore. It seems determined to do as much damage as possible

Ok I can see that. It was heading for western Hainan and has just wobbled slightly west. We can see that in the latest satellite images from the Navy website. On the first one you can see that the eye is coming on shore in western Hainan. In the second you can see that it wobbled west in the following one hour period. I would say if you smooth out the track locations from these two images that the eye is strafing the west coast of Hainan and is or will probably be onshore at times. And indeed, Alyono, it is taking the worst path possible wherever it can. Just bad news all around.

At 0516 UTC:


At 0630 UTC:

[mrbagyo]

Because of Typhoon Haiyan - WPAC ACE is now up to 266.418 or 99% of the Normal ACE to date... and HAIYAN is still alive, still collecting some ACE points and we have 90W coming.
Haiyan also snatched the title of being the most energetic storm of 2013 from TY Francisco:
current ACE of TY Haiyan : 35.2725
ACE of TY Francisco : 34.6475

I wonder what's the lowest sea level pressure of HAIYAN
Typhoon Betty (1987) was able to attain a MSLP of 891 as confirmed by recon mission(recon ended in 1987, so Betty is one of those last storms to be penetrated by regular recon mission in WPAC) . Typhoon Betty was much smaller and more compact than Haiyan, had winds of 140 knots , and it happened in August , and there is also ridging to its north as stated in the 1987 JTWC ATCR. Typhoon Betty made landfall in Northern Samar as a borderline cat 4 or 5 , not extremely far north from the landfall site of Haiyan.

it's very possible that Haiyan does have a much lower pressure than Betty, maybe at 860-880mb level

[Alyono]

Photos from Guiuan

https://twitter.com/LorshO_o/status/399448839435726848
https://twitter.com/abraham_bormate/sta ... 3965167616
https://twitter.com/TyphoonHaiyan/statu ... 4838062081

the good news is... there are some survivors. Other than that... the photos speak for themselves

[Alyono]

a few more photos

https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set ... 403&type=1

[ozonepete]

Photos from Guiuan

https://twitter.com/LorshO_o/status/399448839435726848
https://twitter.com/abraham_bormate/sta ... 3965167616
https://twitter.com/TyphoonHaiyan/statu ... 4838062081

the good news is... there are some survivors. Other than that... the photos speak for themselves

Thanks for posting. Just heart-breaking stuff. This damage could only have been caused by a cat 5. Virtually every tree has been blown down or snapped in half. The city looks like it's been smashed.

[ozonepete]

Boy, this storm just won't quit. The eye just skirted the western Hainan coast and that seems to have prevented it from weakening. Now that they eye is over the open water it looks like it's intensifying again.

[somethingfunny]

This loop is really remarkable. I wonder if the typhoon's wind moving through the passes between the mountains of Hainan Island created temporary vorticies that attracted Typhoon Haiyan. Maybe the typhoon resumed its' northwestward course once the vorticies dissipated (different angle of wind as the storm gets closer?)

I know such phenomena have been observed or at least theorized in other cases.

[somethingfunny]

Ok folks.Prepare to read this first news from Guiuan.

2 Eastern Samar towns in ruins
by Rupert Ambil, posted on 11/10/2013 9:20 AM | Updated 11/10/2013 9:45 AM

CATBALOGAN CITY, Philippines - Giporlos and Guiuan in Eastern Samar are in ruins, with typhoon Yolanda damaging 95 percent of the two towns, according to eyewitness accounts on Sunday, November 10.

Because of the devastation, there are no clear estimates of casualties or survivors, they added.

Mark Biong, mayor of Giporlos, travelled 8 hours via a motorbike from his town to this city to report the devastation in Giporlos. In normal times, the road trip from Giporlos to Tacloban takes only one-and-half hours.

"It's total destruction," Biong told government officials and reporters here. At least 95% of the town has been damaged, he added. Giporlos is a coastal town, one of 22 municipalities of Eastern Samar. A 2010 census puts its population at 12,000.

Biong has no estimates of casualties or survivors.

The more remote town of Guiuan has also been flattened, leaving survivors helpless and triggering looting, according to Solar TV News reporter David Santos, who finally reached Tacloban City Sunday morning, November 9, after his communication lines were cut off for more than two days. He rode a motorbike

http://www.rappler.com/nation/43345-eas ... ns-yolanda

This catastrophe is beyond words for me. Awful, horrifying, apocalyptic, I can't find words to really express it.

Something that jumps out at me from the story of those two mayors riding motorbikes in (aside from happy surprise at the fact that both the mayor and a salvageable motorbike survived in Guiuan) is that they came to Tacloban on Day 3 without aid or communication from the outside world.

[euro6208]

it's very possible that Haiyan does have a much lower pressure than Betty, maybe at 860-880mb level

Very likely the peak intensity is 180 knots with a central pressure of 850-860's. 840's could be a possibility.

[mrbagyo]

this is PAGASA's weather station in GUIAN, SAMAR... looks like the globe containing the doppler radar at the top of the building didn't survive the brunt of HAIYAN... notice the vegetation surrounding of the station... it's wiped out!!!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I hope our member, stormstrike, is fine after this storm and his family will recover quickly. And not only him, but all those affected over Cebu, Negros, Samar, Bohol, Biliran, Panay, Mindoro and Palawan.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Our relatives' places in Ormoc and Tacloban are destroyed!!!! Pag-ampo palihug!!!!! Diri na maupay it nanghitabo ha Leyte ngan Samar tapos sa makusog ng bagyo!!!!

Pray for us.. I am almost in tears.

[cycloneye]

There are no words to describe this scene from the air looking at Guiuan.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

If you guys want to know Yolanda's effects in Cebu City: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKXODwI3gYc

Still not spared from typhoon-force winds and torrential rainfall.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

There are no words to describe this scene from the air looking at Guiuan.

http://img268.imageshack.us/img268/8972/tkwr.jpg

I pray for those affected that they can have a fast, full recovery!

#BangonVisayas
#BangonLeyte
#BangonSamar

[hurricanes1234]

Our relatives' places in Ormoc and Tacloban are destroyed!!!! Pag-ampo palihug!!!!! Diri na maupay it nanghitabo ha Leyte ngan Samar tapos sa makusog ng bagyo!!!!

Pray for us.. I am almost in tears.

I am extremely sorry to hear this. I can't express in much words how painful it must be to lose a loved one, and in this case, multiple. I will pray for you.

[cycloneye]

JTWC 15:00 UTC warning down to 75kts.