I'd agree with that Weather Channel meteorologist. Very good chance Erin will weaken back to a wave in 5 days and very unlikely to be any threat to the East U.S. Coast. Just looked at the high-res 12Z Euro and it weakens Erin back to a wave in 3-4 days, as does the GFS and Canadian. Though wind shear isn't too much of an issue presently, the GFS indicates 35-45 kts of shear in a couple of days and persistent shear beyond then. Same with Canadian & Euro. You can see the interaction of Erin and the shear on Levi's page:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.htmlJust for fun, I went over to the Coastal Services Center and set a location where Erin currently is with a circle of radius 75 miles. Plotted all storms that have come within 75 miles of Erin's current location. I see the big 1915 Galveston hurricane in there, a big 1947 Miami hurricane in there, the 1928 Lake Okeechobee hurricane in there and 3-4 East Coast hurricanes. Over 90% missed the Caribbean and the U.S., though. And those that did hit the U.S. probably didn't have the same flow pattern that exists out there today.
http://csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#