BOB : Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

hurricanes1234 · #141 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 7:46 pm

2 mph away from Category 5 status on Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. This definitely has the potential to become a C5, and even if the pressure doesn't fall to <912 mbar, I am sure this will have the highest wind speed of any tropical cyclone in the Indian Ocean. Very very amazing indeed. Maximum preparations should at least be going up right now.

supercane4867 · #142 Postby **supercane4867** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 7:46 pm

JTWC says Phailin has peaked...as a Cat 4

TPIO10 PGTW 110012
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN)
B. 10/2330Z
C. 15.7N
D. 88.9E
E. ONE/MET7
F. T6.5/7.0/D2.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS AN
E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT OF 6.5.
MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/2141Z 14.4N 91.6E MMHS
BERMEA

#143 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 7:53 pm

The size of the storm is just as worrisome as the intensity...that thing basically covers the Bay of Bengal!

#144 Postby **stormkite** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 7:56 pm

2013OCT11 000000 6.9 924.6 137.4 6.8 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT ON OFF 6.44 -78.45 EYE 14

hurricanes1234 · #145 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 7:57 pm

Peaked or peaking?

#146 Postby **stormkite** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 8:00 pm

supercane4867 wrote:JTWC says Phailin has peaked...as a Cat 4

TPIO10 PGTW 110012
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN)
B. 10/2330Z
C. 15.7N
D. 88.9E
E. ONE/MET7
F. T6.5/7.0/D2.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS AN
E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT OF 6.5.
MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/2141Z 14.4N 91.6E MMHS
BERMEA

It's a cat 5 cyclone it's at 6.9

supercane4867 · #147 Postby **supercane4867** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 8:10 pm

stormkite wrote:It's a cat 5 cyclone it's at 6.9

But the king JTWC disagrees, we can do nothing about it

#148 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 8:10 pm

Looks to be peaking now perhaps, at least for the moment. But an ERC could make the storm even larger in size and enhance the storm surge threat.

supercane4867 · #149 Postby **supercane4867** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 8:27 pm

Maybe a hint of concentric eyewall

#150 Postby **ozonepete** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 8:56 pm

Definitely concentric eyewalls visible. This is clearly starting an ERC. What's scary is that it looks like it has more than enough time to complete the ERC before landfall so it could still make cat 5 and could do it unequivocally.

HurricaneBill · #151 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 9:23 pm

Striking power employees in S. India call off strike for approaching cyclone

HurricaneBill · #152 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 9:26 pm

In case anybody was wondering, Phailin is pronounced "pie-leen".

#153 Postby **ozonepete** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 9:29 pm

Part of latest discussion from JTWC:

REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 88.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B (PHAILIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 409 NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY HOWS THE INTENSE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED A SYMMETRIC EYE AS IT CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. ADDITIONALLY, A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES, INCLUDING A 102343Z SSMI/S PASS, SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, COMMONLY OBSERVED IN TROPICAL CYCLONES WITH MINIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 120 KNOTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES.

#154 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 9:40 pm

Minimum sustained winds of 120 knots Pete? I'd hate to see what the maximum sustained winds are!

hurricanes1234 · #155 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 9:57 pm

They're saying it could still become a C5 before landfall. :eek:

#156 Postby **Alyono** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 10:03 pm

JT is not king of anything

One thing to keep note of, this is approaching the western edge of MTSAT. May be best to use meteosat7 going forward

wxmann_91 · #157 Postby **wxmann_91** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 10:06 pm

HurricaneBill wrote:In case anybody was wondering, Phailin is pronounced "pie-leen".

Dangit, guess I was failin' to pronounce it right this entire time.

#158 Postby **ozonepete** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 10:45 pm

Alyono wrote:JT is not king of anything

One thing to keep note of, this is approaching the western edge of MTSAT. May be best to use meteosat7 going forward

Woops. There are a lot of former JTWC employees on here so tread lightly.

And yes, I'm using MTSAT now. The loops are already every half hour and much better for analyzing.

#159 Postby **ozonepete** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 10:47 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:Minimum sustained winds of 120 knots Pete? I'd hate to see what the maximum sustained winds are!

Ha ha you are very funny and I missed that one, lol. That's why we love you here - a keen eye for everything.

supercane4867 · #160 Postby **supercane4867** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 10:49 pm

Spectacular

BOB : Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

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