EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013

...RAYMOND CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 102.0W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM TECPAN
DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-
STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAYMOND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.0 WEST. RAYMOND IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A GENERAL NORTHWARD
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION ON TUESDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF
MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...AND RAYMOND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR MONDAY.

RAYMOND IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA BY LATE MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATE
OF GUERRERO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
UP TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ADJACENT BORDERING STATES OF
OAXACA AND MICHOACAN.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAYMOND ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

[hurricanes1234]

Let me make sure I am seated on a chair. Right...


1. Henriette has been surpassed!
2. This is now forecast to be a MAJOR!


Is there anything else I missed? Because this is the most stunning storm of 2013 in both ATL and EPAC!!!

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013

RAYMOND HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING AT AN ASTOUNDING RATE SINCE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE
PICTURES...AND WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO THE SMALL EYE HAS CLEARED
AND WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY. ALTHOUGH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AT
0000 UTC WERE 65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AN EARLIER CIMSS AMSU
INTENSITY INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 74 KT. GIVEN THE MUCH
IMPROVED SATELLITE PRESENTATION SINCE EARLY THIS EVENING...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 85 KT...WHICH MIGHT BE CONSERVATIVE.
THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
NOW CALLS FOR RAYMOND TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 12
HOURS...AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. LATER IN THE
FOREAST PERIOD...THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND IS LIKELY TO INITIATE
WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/5 KT. RAYMOND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS WHILE A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
OUT...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...AND RAYMOND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY. THE PRIMARY
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND HOW
CLOSE RAYMOND WILL GET TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WHETHER LANDFALL WILL OCCUR. THE GFDL
AND HWRF MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE RAYMOND TO THE COAST WITHIN 48
HOURS....WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL
NORTHWARD MOTION. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN LIE IN BETWEEN AND
SO DOES THE NHC FORECAST. IT CANNOT BE STRESSED ENOUGH THAT ONLY A
SMALL NORTHWARD DEVIATION OF RAYMOND FROM THE NHC FOREAST WOULD
BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE VERY NEAR THE COAST. THE UPDATED
NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...HWRF...AND
GFS MODELS.

GIVEN THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...RECENT STRENGTHENING...AND POSSIBLE
EXPANSION OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM TECPAN DE
GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 15.9N 102.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 16.3N 102.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 16.6N 101.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 16.8N 101.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 17.0N 101.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 16.7N 103.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 16.2N 105.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 16.0N 109.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[supercane4867]

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.6N 101.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

Forecasting to peak at 110kt？wow...

[hurricanes1234]

The discussion states that it has been intensifying at an astounding rate!! And it is forecast to peak just below Category 4 status! And 100 mph could be conservative?! What craziness is this?! Truly an unexpectedly amazing storm!

[cycloneye]

Let's see if they change their plans to fly recon on Monday instead of Tuesday. I don't think it will happen but you never know if they decide to go earlier than planned.

[supercane4867]

This year made 110kt seems like a dream intensity to me lol

[Yellow Evan]

The discussion states that it has been intensifying at an astounding rate!! And it is forecast to peak just below Category 4 status! And 100 mph could be conservative?! What craziness is this?! Truly an unexpectedly amazing storm!

Models were showing this. But I have not been this excited for an EPAC storm since Paul 12, an epic late seaosn monster, last year.

[Yellow Evan]

Let's see if they change their plans to fly recon on Monday instead of Tuesday. I don't think it will happen but you never know if they decide to go earlier than planned.

I highly doubt it. BTW, I think recon is an overrated tool, the AUS lacks recon, but gets along fine.

[Fyzn94]

Goodbye, western hemisphere major hurricane dry spell.

[Yellow Evan]

Goodbye, western hemisphere major hurricane dry spell.

It's not a major yet. It's over when it reaches 100 knts.

[hurricanes1234]

Goodbye, western hemisphere major hurricane dry spell.

It's not a major yet. It's over when it reaches 100 knts.

Fyzn94 meant that the major hurricane dry spell would likely be over very soon.

[hurricanes1234]

This should add quite a few units to the ACE. EPAC was active this year, especially in terms of count.

[supercane4867]

Nice structure

[Yellow Evan]

This should add quite a few units to the ACE. EPAC was active this year, especially in terms of count.

Right now, our ACE is the 7th lowest on record.

[dexterlabio]

With that structure, it's hard to think it won't be a major. Lucky for Lorenzo, it's in a spot with minimal dry air and low VWS. One lucky spot to sprout a major hurricane. And I have to say at this early, Euro nailed this one.

[dexterlabio]

This should add quite a few units to the ACE. EPAC was active this year, especially in terms of count.

Right now, our ACE is the 7th lowest on record.

I really go for the ACE to say how active the season is. This year's hurricane season is a dud IMO. The only impressive fact about this year is the possibility of having the 'S' storm. Having Raymond in the 21st century is interesting enough, and would be more interesting if it becomes the only major hurricane of the Western Hemisphere this year.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[euro6208]

ADT at 5.0 = 90 knots...