ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

I think there's a decent chance this is an open wave. Both the visible and the MIMIC-TPW show Dorian losing circulation.

Kind of hard to tell from that angle of the satellite and with only just a few frames of vis satellite, IMO, to conclude that it is an open wave this morning, which I doubt it would had done so quickly.

Edit:
BTW, MIMIC's TPW loop still shows a vigorous circulation.

[tolakram]

The 0Z euro, higher rez, shows Dorian bouncing off the Miami area at 168 hours and recurving up the coast. The previous run had Dorian just SE of Key West at the same time.

So the GFS now dissipates and the Euro starts to strengthen in about the same area.

This lower rez image shows it moving up the east coast of Florida. It appears to be a moderate tropical storm on the higher rez images, but I'm not too good at reading them.

[Blown Away]

Dorian just now moving into 80 degree waters...Convection has been building last few frames...Weak TS is all his is for now and satellite presentation should look rough
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-avn.html

1000+ miles from the islands and 2000+ miles from the CONUS...Lot can happen in between...

[NDG]

I get the feeling that this new GFS is not as good as the old one.
Very suspecious of it, for now, unless it proves me otherwise.
From what I have read it has been showing total different solutions before going live with it yesterday.

[tolakram]

Live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

I think there's a decent chance this is an open wave. Both the visible and the MIMIC-TPW show Dorian losing circulation.

Kind of hard to tell from that angle of the satellite and with only just a few frames of vis satellite, IMO, to conclude that it is an open wave this morning, which I doubt it would had done so quickly.

Edit:
BTW, MIMIC's TPW loop still shows a vigorous circulation.

MIMIC-TPW shows an elongated circulation very similar to what can be seen when a storm falls apart. Last few frames, again, but I still think there's a decent change the LLC is very weak to non existent.

We shall see, I'm usually wrong.

[cycloneye]

Saved closeup image.

[wxman57]

I'm looking at visible Meteosat images coming in every 15 minutes and can't tell if Dorian still has an LLC. Any LLC is west of all the convection. It's possible there may be some weak westerly winds on the south side. Conditions in its immediate path are not as favorable as they have been over the past 2 days, so it may degenerate into a wave soon.

[NDG]

As mentioned by the NHC at their advisory, the ECMWF does indeed shows better UL winds for Dorian as it tracks near of just north of the Lesser Antilles on Monday and Tuesday.

[TheStormExpert]

As mentioned by the NHC at their advisory, the ECMWF does indeed shows better UL winds for Dorian as it tracks near of just north of the Lesser Antilles on Monday and Tuesday.

Knowing the ECMWF has been doing kind of horrible for some time now I really just might as well wait and see what everyone else thinks about the shear levels in the future.

[tolakram]

Knowing the ECMWF has been doing kind of horrible for some time now I really just might as well wait and see what everyone else thinks about the shear levels in the future.

Too narrow a viewpoint. The models have their strong and weak points. The euro does pretty well with the overall environmental conditions, while the GFS sometimes fails miserably at this.

[tolakram]

The floater view shows how disorganized Dorian has become: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 251715.GIF

Mid level circulation very hard to find now, if it even exists.

[hurricaneCW]

Given Dorians current state and add in more unfavorable conditions coming up, there may not be much by the time he makes it that far west, it's looking like it could meet the fate of Chantal and open into a wave.

[NDG]

Knowing the ECMWF has been doing kind of horrible for some time now I really just might as well wait and see what everyone else thinks about the shear levels in the future.

Too narrow a viewpoint. The models have their strong and weak points. The euro does pretty well with the overall environmental conditions, while the GFS sometimes fails miserably at this.

Very true, I remember a few weeks ago with the invest at the BOC that moved northward towards the TX coast, the ECMWF was right about keeping a sheared environment unlike the GFS which proved to be wrong.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track.

AL, 04, 2013072612, , BEST, 0, 175N, 424W, 45, 1006, TS

[cycloneye]

12z Guidance.

WHXX01 KWBC 261227
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1227 UTC FRI JUL 26 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN (AL042013) 20130726 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130726 1200 130727 0000 130727 1200 130728 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.5N 42.4W 18.8N 46.9W 19.8N 51.1W 20.9N 55.1W
BAMD 17.5N 42.4W 18.3N 45.2W 18.8N 47.7W 19.1N 49.9W
BAMM 17.5N 42.4W 18.5N 45.8W 19.2N 49.1W 19.8N 52.1W
LBAR 17.5N 42.4W 18.2N 45.9W 18.9N 49.6W 19.6N 53.1W
SHIP 45KTS 44KTS 44KTS 44KTS
DSHP 45KTS 44KTS 44KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130728 1200 130729 1200 130730 1200 130731 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.9N 58.9W 23.9N 65.3W 25.4N 70.9W 26.4N 75.9W
BAMD 18.9N 51.8W 17.3N 55.3W 15.2N 58.9W 14.0N 62.1W
BAMM 20.2N 55.0W 20.5N 59.8W 20.4N 64.2W 20.2N 68.1W
LBAR 20.1N 56.2W 20.8N 61.3W 19.4N 63.8W 24.8N 59.8W
SHIP 46KTS 52KTS 55KTS 57KTS
DSHP 46KTS 52KTS 55KTS 57KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.5N LONCUR = 42.4W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 16.4N LONM12 = 38.7W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 15.6N LONM24 = 35.3W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 40NM

[senorpepr]

The latest video update on Tropical Storm Dorian and the other global cyclone threats. Still a lot of uncertainty in the forecast track and how much it will affect land. Hopefully the G-4 mission will help answer those questions, but will the latest weakening trend cancel or delay recon?

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SghNDcstMEU[/youtube]

[NDG]

12z Best Track.

AL, 04, 2013072612, , BEST, 0, 175N, 424W, 45, 1006, TS

I put an X on the spot they are estimating the COC to be:

[Blown Away]

SHIP/DSHP winds start going up after day 3...Slight change from 06z...



12z...Models lifting slightly N of PR/Hispaniola now...Targetting east/central Cuba...Survival is Dorian's immediate concern...

[Gustywind]

Steady decreasing numbers for TS Dorian.


DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
26/1145 UTC 17.6N 42.6W T1.5/2.0 DORIAN
26/0545 UTC 16.9N 40.7W T2.0/2.0 DORIAN
25/2345 UTC 16.9N 38.0W T2.0/3.0 DORIAN

[Frank2]

July systems usually don't get this far west - too much easterly or westerly shear, depending (not to mention the ULL's) - I can't say anyone here in South Florida is disappointed...

Getting ready for a hurricane is easy on paper, but in reality it's like preparing to evacuate from a forest fire - very stressful...

Frank