ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

Yellow "X" where I would put the center (though I'm not sure it has one).

[artist]

The latest video update on Tropical Storm Dorian and the other global cyclone threats. Still a lot of uncertainty in the forecast track and how much it will affect land. Hopefully the G-4 mission will help answer those questions, but will the latest weakening trend cancel or delay recon?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SghNDcstMEU

thanks Mike

[cycloneye]

57,still barely hanging there.

TXNT28 KNES 261209
TCSNTL

A. 04L (DORIAN)

B. 26/1145Z

C. 17.6N

D. 42.6W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/2.0/W1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMI/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM ORGANIZATION HAS DECREASED MARKEDLY OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS AND IT HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO DISCERN LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS
IN ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY BUT MOST RECENT SSMIS AT 0906Z SUGGESTED
LLCC STILL EXISTED. 3/10 BROKEN CONVECTION RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5 AND
THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE PT. MET IS 2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

26/0635Z 16.9N 40.8W SSMI
26/0753Z 17.0N 41.1W SSMIS
26/0906Z 17.2N 41.9W SSMIS


...TURK

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/20 ... 4504L.html

[NDG]

I guess the NHC is going by this in estimating their COC, which still looks to have a weak circulation, not sure if it is closed all the way.

[wxman57]

I'd put it well WNW of that position. But I am thinking it no longer has an LLC.

[ROCK]

Might be nothing left but a TW when it reaches the islands.....

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Once it gets past the shear in a couple of days, could whatever this currently is regenerate back into a storm? Will the conditions where this will be in a few days be more conducive to cyclogenesis?

in other words...will this be able to start all over again downstream?

[tolakram]

The latest Euro run shows what appears to be a tropical depression very close to the Miami area in 192h. It gains strength from a wave to a TD in the Bahamas, but stays very weak.

The latest GFS dissipates it near the islands.

So right now very little model support for much if anything.

[Alyono]

clearly a wave now. I would pull the plug on advisories

[Blown Away]

My estimate based on latest position estimate, current movement, and time or IR frame...

[ROCK]

Someone threw some dynogel on top of it ....lol....or it ate enough stable air to open up

[wxman57]

Let's pretend it was never Dorian and we look at the satellite loop and see this strong wave moving westward across the Atlantic that looks like Dorian. We'd be debating its development chances. Some would be saying it's already a TD or even a TS. Others would point out that it's heading for increased shear and it doesn't have a chance. Sure, once it passes the shear zone in 2-3 days it may encounter a more hospitable environment. But what will be left of it then? A tropical wave void of most convection? Sure, we'll need to continue to monitor it as it continues westward.

[HurrMark]

This season is starting to remind me of the last two seasons...a lot of TSs that can't seem to get their act together, especially early on (remember that in 2011, it took until Irene for a hurricane to form). And it appears to be a trend over the last ten or fifteen years...so this might explain why when we do get a memorable storm, it starts with an 'I' or something way down the alphabet. A lot of quantity in the early part of the season, but not so much quality.

[NDG]

Big shift northward from the southern outliers, now most models back closer to the NHC track after the shift northwards by the Oper GFS at its 06z run.

[ROCK]

clearly a wave now. I would pull the plug on advisories

And leave the islands out to dry? You saw how quickly it formed in the beginning that no model picked up on......glad they are not pulling the plug just yet....IMO

[tolakram]

The 0Z euro, higher rez, shows Dorian bouncing off the Miami area at 168 hours and recurving up the coast. The previous run had Dorian just SE of Key West at the same time.

It appears to be a moderate tropical storm on the higher rez images, but I'm not too good at reading them.

Correction to the above, the 0Z euro shows a TD, or well defined wave, near Miami. It appears to gain some strength in the Bahamas, but never becomes more than a TD, if that.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

So it seems that the people who were saying this was dying last night were correct.

[tolakram]

Saved RGB Loop.

Even if it has an LLC I don't see it surviving the dry air slamming into it from the NE.

[NDG]

:uarrow: SHIP/DSHP winds start going up after day 3...Slight change from 06z...


http://img199.imageshack.us/img199/2390/q1lu.jpg
12z...Models lifting slightly N of PR/Hispaniola now...Targetting east/central Cuba...Survival is Dorian's immediate concern...

12z SHIPS is not showing the near 30 knot shear forecast down the road it was showing the last couple of runs.

[wxman57]

clearly a wave now. I would pull the plug on advisories

And leave the islands out to dry? You saw how quickly it formed in the beginning that no model picked up on......glad they are not pulling the plug just yet....IMO

How would that leave the islands out to dry? Aren't weather forecasts still being produced several times a day? Can the forecasters there not predict increasing rain chances without the tropical system having a name and/or an LLC? Caribbean weather is quite predictable in the path of Dorian, even if the NHC is not issuing a track. As a remnant low or wave, the NHC would still issue updates 4 times a day. Meteorologists across the Caribbean would know to expect increasing rain chances in a few days. No harm done.