ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[supercane]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 090545
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 9 2013

<snip>

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
GABRIELLE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE DISPLACING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE EAST OF THE LOW...AND NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE LOW MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

<snip>

Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/090545_MIATWOAT.shtml

[HurricaneHunter914]

Deep convection firing again. Still has a bit of a fight left in it.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/imagery/avn0-lalo.jpg

[ninel conde]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 9m

Great precipitable water loop shows ridging try to get in front of Gabrielle, Elongated system in front of Humberto

jb still not giving up. on gab or 98L.

[Aric Dunn]

I dont normally agree with him.. but its pretty straight forward.. the front already flattening out.. the massive ridge is coming of the east coast.. there is a upper low beginning to cut off north of the bahamas.. the low and mid level steering really tells the story.. if it does no move out today or die its trapped and will likely end up moving west over even wsw as that large ridge moves off the coast.. to be honest i dont normally compare previous systems but that ridge very reminiscent of jeanne... and no I dont think its going to bomb out like that ( atm) but the large ridge reminds me of it.


compare these images with 24 to 36 hours and you cant refute the ridge building..
then looking at satellite and soudings from the east coast and burmuda.. if its going out to sea better do it today..
low level
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF

mid level
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm2.GIF

[ninel conde]

yea, could get interesting if its still around on weds.

[gatorcane]

According to the RAL site, it is not moving that quickly at all:

At 0600 UTC, 09 September 2013, LOW GABRIELLE (AL92) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 25.4°N and 67.8°W. The current intensity was 25 kt and the center was moving at 4 kt at a bearing of 55 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2013/al922013/

Looking at the latest VIS floater this morning, I detect hardly any movement as it continues to linger around in weak steering:

[Hurricane_Luis]

Invest 92L, The Remnants of TS Gabrielle.

[Aric Dunn]

since the cut of upper low is trying to form over the bahamas check out the upper winds over it in the last 12 hours very nice upper high good outflow regime setting up over it.

[Blown Away]

Aric, I guess anything is possible, but there is no hint of model support for anything but out to sea?

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, I guess anything is possible, but there is no hint of model support for anything but out to sea?

true.. but it was already supposed to be out to sea 2 days ago... clearly the trough was not as deep as originally thought

[HurricaneHunter914]

Looking at satellite, movement seems to have come to a halt as well.

[cycloneye]

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
GABRIELLE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO DISPLACE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE EAST OF THE LOW...AND SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE LOW
MOVES GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Aric Dunn]

You can see the llc pop out from under the convection at 26.6n 66w moving to the wnw not N or nne .. already feeling the low and mid lvl ridging ..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[cycloneye]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 31m

Named or not, Tropical storm conditions likely on Bermuda tom into Wednesday as Gabrielle is making a comeback.

[Riptide]

6 more hours of convection and this will be a tropical cyclone again. NHC would hopefully call it as it is rather than backtrack on 20% probabilities.

[Aric Dunn]

6 more hours of convection and this will be a tropical cyclone again. NHC would hopefully call it as it is rather than backtrack on 20% probabilities.

looking a t microwave and sat. its very likely a TD or TS atm
nice convection popping

shear lowering
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[NDG]

Gabrielle's remnants finally got some break from the shear, LLC is very close to the deep convection, clearly seen on hd vis sat loop near 26.6N & 65.5W

[Aric Dunn]

Gabrielle's remnants finally got some break from the shear, LLC is very close to the deep convection, clearly seen on hd vis sat loop near 26.6N & 65.5W

center nearly fully covered very nice burst of convection

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[blp]

Looks NNW movement to me and does not look be stalled. It will be close, but the models are quite persistent on this heading out. We will know tomorrow for sure because all the models have it heading out tomorrow.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/flash-rgb-long.html

[HurricaneDREW92]

If its a TD/TS advisory at 11pm?