CPAC: FLOSSIE - Post-Tropical

[HURAKAN]

All TDs at landfall

[Alyono]

very surprised there is no recon planned for this. Hawaii is supposed to get the same coverage as is the mainland

They're sending out 3 planes, tomorrow or Sunday.

no missions are planned

[HURAKAN]

Tough road ahead

[Kingarabian]

very surprised there is no recon planned for this. Hawaii is supposed to get the same coverage as is the mainland

They're sending out 3 planes, tomorrow or Sunday.

no missions are planned

“Three we can't do. Two, I can do for a short time. We're going to test that theory here this weekend. We're going to send three aircraft to Hawaii to fly that Eastern Pacifc storm, and we're going to send three aircraft to the east to St. Croix. But the two storm scenario is only sustainable for about five or six days. After that, we'll run out of people, essentially. So, we're okay now at the beginning, but the problem is that if at the end of that period if another wave rolls off, and we've already burned off our crews on the first couple of storms. That's when the real problems come up,” said Col. Craig LaFave.

Read More at: http://www.local15tv.com/shared/news/fe ... 1226.shtml

[Yellow Evan]

What was the last tropical cyclone which made landfall over the Big Island?

Eugene 93.

I searched— Eugene made landfall as a tropical depression. What was the last tropical storm? It seems that Flossie has chances to make landfall as a TS.

You ask for "tropical cyclone". Well, the last storm of at least gale winds was Iniki 92, which just happened to be a Cat 4. In 2009, however, the northwestern Hawaiian islands had a near-miss, Neki 09.

[Yellow Evan]

http://img850.imageshack.us/img850/5254/fcly.png

All TDs at landfall

Uhh, there appears to be a TS in that picture. Not in the dataset, but there was 1870 hurricane that hit the Big Island.

[HURAKAN]

http://img850.imageshack.us/img850/5254/fcly.png

All TDs at landfall

Uhh, there appears to be a TS in that picture. Not in the dataset, but there was 1870 hurricane that hit the Big Island.

I thought so too, but it was a TD at landfall. The graphic makes it look like it was TS at landfall.

CPHC doesn't say it was a hurricane or gives any specific intensity for the cyclone in 1870.

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/summaries/1800s.php

[supercane4867]

Some serious dry air intrusion going on, probably won't make it to landfall

[Yellow Evan]

Down to 45 knts per ATCF.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062013
1100 AM HST SAT JUL 27 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.
CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED NEAR THE
CENTER. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR JUST AHEAD OF FLOSSIE APPEARS TO BE THE
GREATEST FACTOR IN ITS WEAKENING TREND. MARGINAL SSTS AS WELL AS
SOME DRY AIR INTRUSION ALSO APPEARS TO BE A FACTOR IN ITS
WEAKENING. THESE FACTORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PLAY A ROLL IN A
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF FLOSSIE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CPHC
FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH WHICH HAS
CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW DOWN SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AND MAKE A GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE
WEST DUE TO A RETROGRADING RIDGE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
ALMOST ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW FLOSSIE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND IN 60-72
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD
FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK BUT IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 18.7N 141.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 19.3N 143.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 19.8N 147.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 20.1N 150.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 20.0N 153.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 20.1N 159.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 31/1800Z 20.5N 165.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

[Yellow Evan]

Surprised they keep it as a TC for 4 more days.

[Kingarabian]

On ITCZ life support.

[Yellow Evan]

On ITCZ life support.

Not a bad looking storm though.

[Kingarabian]

On ITCZ life support.

[img]..[/img]

Not a bad looking storm though.

That's what I was thinking. I mean Dorian looked pathetic and somehow was considered a TS... Flossie looks really good. Great structure for 45 knot storm.

[Yellow Evan]

On ITCZ life support.

[img]..[/img]

Not a bad looking storm though.

That's what I was thinking. I mean Dorian looked pathetic and somehow was considered a TS... Flossie looks really good. Great structure for 45 knot storm.

CPHC won't raise is to 50 knts though. I'd think they'd keep at 45 knots for the 3z advisory. They are very conservative. I do not however that they will keep it at a TS till it gets to the islands, largely due to the CPHC's tendency to keep remnant lows at low-end tropical storms (see Hilda and Guillermo 09).

Still, Flossie is a quite cool storm.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks as if this years Flossie might have a somewhat bigger impact on Hawaii than 2007's Hurricane Flossie which went south of Hawaii. It's such a coincidence that both Flossie's are threatening Hawaii and only in a 6 year difference.

[supercane4867]

00z ATCF Stays at 45kt
EP, 06, 2013072800, , BEST, 0, 189N, 1423W, 45, 1000, TS

Flossie really deserves more attention
US is facing a direct hit from tropical cyclone and most people don't even realize lol

[cycloneye]

Hawaii will have some squally weather but nothing more as Flossie is forecast to weaken due to cooler sst's and shear.

[supercane4867]

Actually 18z GFS showed slight strengthening when it approaching Hawaii

[Hurricane Alexis]

00z ATCF Stays at 45kt
EP, 06, 2013072800, , BEST, 0, 189N, 1423W, 45, 1000, TS

Flossie really deserves more attention
US is facing a direct hit from tropical cyclone and most people don't even realize lol

Probably cause Flossie is gonna be weak by the time it gets to Hawaii....lol now if it was something like Iniki it would be known.