ATL: FERNAND - Renmants - Discussion

[Hammy]

If they wait too much longer for takeoff the system will be inland before they arrive...

[RL3AO]

What would the NHC do if recon couldn't fly? They're going to have to make upgrade decisions without recon confirmation occasionally. And with ASCAT so sporadic, there may not be that data either.

Looks like SSD is even being conservative.

TXNT26 KNES 251758
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95L)

B. 25/1745Z

C. 19.5N

D. 94.9W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=2.0 BASED ON .3 BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.5. MET=1.5. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

[tropicwatch]

This station has been consistent all morning long.

Station SACV4 - Sacrifice Island, Mexico
Wind Direction (WDIR): NNW ( 330 deg true )
Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 32.1 kts
Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 36.9 kts
Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.83 in
Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )

[wxman57]

It would be interesting if another group besides the NHC forecasters verified development.

As for this system, if it has an LLC at all then it has winds at least 40 kts. Great to use recon when you have it, but it can't be the determining factor as to when to upgrade.

[NDG]

If they wait too much longer for takeoff the system will be inland before they arrive...

95L has really slowed down today, it should not move inland until late tonight or early tomorrow morning, IMO.

[Hammy]

live radar loop http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/fernand13/Fernand_26Aug13_alva.gif

also listed as "Fernand" so I'm not sure if that was in error or if the guy knows something we don't.

[NDG]

This station has been consistent all morning long.

Station SACV4 - Sacrifice Island, Mexico
Wind Direction (WDIR): NNW ( 330 deg true )
Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 32.1 kts
Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 36.9 kts
Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.83 in
Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )

Even at the Int'l airport of Veracruz which is a good 5 miles inland they had a wind gust of 35 mph earlier today.

[Alyono]

no clue why this has yet to be upgraded. This is as clear as day

[Ikester]

This station has been consistent all morning long.

Station SACV4 - Sacrifice Island, Mexico
Wind Direction (WDIR): NNW ( 330 deg true )
Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 32.1 kts
Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 36.9 kts
Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.83 in
Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )

Even at the Int'l airport of Veracruz which is a good 5 miles inland they had a wind gust of 35 mph earlier today.

To me, the perception is the rules have changed. Since when does a gust qualify a system to be named? So many times I've seen on this board ''oh, there was a gust to 40! This should be Tropical Storm _______!" No. The definition is a storm with a sustained 1-minute wind of 39+. I'm sure JonathanBelles can elaborate more, but I'm pretty sure that the reduction of 10 to 20% is just an average reduction from 850 and 700 mb. How reliable is the reduction in translating to surface winds anyway? This has been an ongoing discussion in our weather office as of late being that few times do tropical storms or hurricanes make landfall and the maximum sustained wind is rarely observed (and i'm not talking gusts). Latest example I believe was Andrea with a 65 mph sustained wind and I don't think I saw any observed reading over 40 mph...not to say it didn't happen.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

AL, 95, 2013082518, , BEST, 0, 194N, 951W, 25, 1007, LO

[Alyono]

This station has been consistent all morning long.

Station SACV4 - Sacrifice Island, Mexico
Wind Direction (WDIR): NNW ( 330 deg true )
Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 32.1 kts
Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 36.9 kts
Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.83 in
Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )

Even at the Int'l airport of Veracruz which is a good 5 miles inland they had a wind gust of 35 mph earlier today.

To me, the perception is the rules have changed. Since when does a gust qualify a system to be named? So many times I've seen on this board ''oh, there was a gust to 40! This should be Tropical Storm _______!" No. The definition is a storm with a sustained 1-minute wind of 39+. I'm sure JonathanBelles can elaborate more, but I'm pretty sure that the reduction of 10 to 20% is just an average reduction from 850 and 700 mb. How reliable is the reduction in translating to surface winds anyway? This has been an ongoing discussion in our weather office as of late being that few times do tropical storms or hurricanes make landfall and the maximum sustained wind is rarely observed (and i'm not talking gusts). Latest example I believe was Andrea with a 65 mph sustained wind and I don't think I saw any observed reading over 40 mph...not to say it didn't happen.

In THIS case, they may have a point though. Sustained winds near Veracruz have been near 35 KT. A reasonable argument can be made of stronger winds near the center

[boca]

In my humble opinion this should already be a depression especially by the looks on sat and the radar presentation.

[RL3AO]

I measured 4/10 banding for a T2.5

I'll be quite surprised if recon doesn't close off a center.

[Gustywind]

Increasing numbers for 95L...


25/1745 UTC 19.5N 94.9W T1.5/1.5 95L
25/1145 UTC 19.4N 93.9W T1.0/1.0 95L

[cycloneye]

TAFB is at T2.0.

TAFB, MN, VI, 5, 2020 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T,
AL, 95, 201308251745, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1950N, 9490W, , 3, 25, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

[SunnyThoughts]

This was from Nicole Mitchell an hour ago on her facebook. Apparently she's going on the recon mission. Dont see where she said it was cancelled or anything...but her last post was like an hour ago. https://www.facebook.com/pages/Nicole-M ... ion=stream

[Hurricaneman]

I don't even know if recon has taken off yet, maybe they have but no HDOBs are available

[Dave]

Hdobs #2 came in almost an hour ago and they were still on the runway at that time and may be because #3 hasn't been sent yet.

With recon flights one learns patience...fast.

[NDG]

Even at the Int'l airport of Veracruz which is a good 5 miles inland they had a wind gust of 35 mph earlier today.

To me, the perception is the rules have changed. Since when does a gust qualify a system to be named? So many times I've seen on this board ''oh, there was a gust to 40! This should be Tropical Storm _______!" No. The definition is a storm with a sustained 1-minute wind of 39+. I'm sure JonathanBelles can elaborate more, but I'm pretty sure that the reduction of 10 to 20% is just an average reduction from 850 and 700 mb. How reliable is the reduction in translating to surface winds anyway? This has been an ongoing discussion in our weather office as of late being that few times do tropical storms or hurricanes make landfall and the maximum sustained wind is rarely observed (and i'm not talking gusts). Latest example I believe was Andrea with a 65 mph sustained wind and I don't think I saw any observed reading over 40 mph...not to say it didn't happen.

In THIS case, they may have a point though. Sustained winds near Veracruz have been near 35 KT. A reasonable argument can be made of stronger winds near the center

That's exactly my point, Veracruz is good 70-80 miles west of 95L with wind gusts close to 40 mph by two stations just offshore, wich would indicate to me that closer to the apparent COC there should be true tropical force winds possible.

[HurricaneDREW92]

You have to give the people of Mexico a warning quick. To the average person this is just an area of clouds that might become a TC