ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Black dot is approximate 06z position... Best looking anything in a long time...

[stormlover2013]

Hard to go against euro

[HeeBGBz]

I'm a little surprised that there isn't more interest in this storm brewing to the south .

[floridasun78]

what did euro show?

[stormlover2013]

La weak wave

[floridasun78]

La weak wave

ty

[cycloneye]

40%/50% at 8 AM TWO

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATER TODAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AFTER THAT...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS COULD AFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

[caneman]

Hard to go against euro

Why is it hard to go against the Euro?

[Dean4Storms]

I have to go against the Euro from what we are seeing this morning. The ECM has nothing closed and drifts it into the central Gulf steered by the lower level flow. Any TC development will turn into the shrinking ridge over the eastern US sooner ala GFS.

[Pearl River]

New Orleans AFD this morning:

.LONG TERM...
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST COMES IN THE LONG RANGE
PERIOD AS SEVERAL FACTORS PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE FORECAST
FOR THIS WEEKEND.A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS LATER THIS WEEK.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THIS FEATURE WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS IT TRACKS
ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE
MARCHING SOUTH AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TOWARDS THE CWA THIS WEEKEND.
AT THE SAME TIME MODELS DEPICT A TROPICAL LOW MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING
THIS FEATURE AND PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLE WITH IT
UNTIL IT GETS MORE DEVELOPED. THE HURRICANE CENTER HIGHLIGHTS THIS
AREA AND HAS THIS DISTURBANCE AT A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS.

TAKING A PEEP AT THE MODELS AGAIN TODAY IT LOOKS LIKE THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND WOULD
ALLOW THE TROPICAL FEATURE TO GET FURTHER WEST AND MUCH CLOSER TO
THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE FRONT BY ABOUT 12 HOURS AND KEEPS THE TROPICAL FEATURE TO
THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT THE
SAME FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS BUT HAVE BUMPED UP POPS SOME
THIS WEEKEND. AFTER THE FRONT FALL WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE AND YOU
WILL DEFINITELY FEEL THE DIFFERENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AS THY
WILL DIP INTO THE 50S EARLY NEXT WEEK AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 80S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT YIELDING FOR
SOME CLEAR DAYS. 13/MH

[Aric Dunn]

From the looks of available data... appears be a more defined surface circ that has developed over night. May end up with a TD by days end...

[wxman57]

Looks more impressive than Jerry, to me. Circulation is developing. Convection more circular and more depression-like looking. I think it'll make a weak TS by tomorrow. Sheared, weak TS making landfall near western FL panhandle Saturday afternoon. No TS winds over land, just over water. Rainfall will be main threat. Not much for FL Peninsula.

[GCANE]

Developing a warm core

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track.

AL, 97, 2013100212, , BEST, 0, 181N, 853W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S

[GCANE]

Can't beat the UL conditions over it.

Only hang up is a small 200mb PV anomaly over Cancun.

[GCANE]

12z Best Track.

AL, 97, 2013100212, , BEST, 0, 181N, 853W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S

Overshooting top just about over the COC

[Dean4Storms]

The 06z GFS continues to lose the current LL Vort and develops another in the northern area of convection which closes off at the surface over the southern Gulf.

[tolakram]

It's in that area where the terrain really helps low level circulations get established.

Live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-84&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

[Dean4Storms]

The 06z GFS losing the current low as the main surface feature eventually has some validity when you take a look a the dry air the current low is running into....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/97L/flash-wv-long.html

[xironman]

There is dry air, but I really don't see the dynamics to push it into the system.