ATL: KAREN - Models

[jhpigott]

What time does the 12z GFS start running?

[stormlover2013]

now

[N2FSU]

12zGFS; initialization

[stormlover2013]

GFS is looking like NEW ORLEANS, better be push right quick if its going to be florida

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=051&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_atlantic_051_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=atlantic&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=

[N2FSU]

12z GFS; 36hr

[windnrain]

12z BIG west shift

[stormlover2013]

knew it would be, I mean the trough and front has been being delayed the last 2 days

[LaBreeze]

12z BIG west shift

What about intensity?

[SunnyThoughts]

Hasn't the GFS been the model that swings it eastward before landfall?

[LaBreeze]

Hasn't the GFS been the model that swings it eastward before landfall?

I thought so too, Sunny.

[deltadog03]

Gfs is landfall near Panama City and it actually shows its strengthening as it approaches the coast.

[cycloneye]

12z BIG west shift

What about intensity?

984 mbs almost at landfall.

[windnrain]

12z 51 hour http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_atlantic_051_precip_p12.gif

[Aric Dunn]

not a big shift at all a matter of 30 mile.

[windnrain]

So with the GFS moving towards the Euro/Nam solution, do we see a westward adjustment of the track?

[stormlover2013]

its all about timing

[N2FSU]

I don't think I would call this a "BIG" shift West. As deltadog said, looks like Panama City rather than Apalachicola on this run.

Here is 72hr vs 66hr that was posted above. Someone posted earlier that this new run looks like New Orleans, but movement is NE as you get closer to landfall.

[SunnyThoughts]

I guess the worst of the weather will be to the east of the center as it crosses the coast ( wherever that may be) as always. Do you guys think it will still be asymmetrical as it comes in? Meaning possibly that where the actual center comes in may not get as much weather as say, 20 miles east of there?

[Aric Dunn]

You have to remember the GFS is very hard to follow excat track from the maps we use because most people follow "L" and that bounces around. Its a little left at land fall thats it

[stormlover2013]

sunny this system has a long ways to go , its not even looking like it did this morning, could be a weak ts and I mean weak at land fall

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.