EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAYMOND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
1100 PM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013

...RAYMOND HESITATES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...ALMOST A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 102.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES

[supercane4867]

TXPZ25 KNES 210624
TCSENP

A. 17E (RAYMOND)

B. 21/0545Z

C. 16.0N

D. 102.2W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.0/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...AN ELONGATED OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W AND EMBEDDED IN B YIELDS
A DT OF 5.5 AFTER A -0.5 SUBTRACTION. MET IS 4.0 AND PT IS 4.5. THE 6HR
AVG DT IS 5.5. FT IS BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION.CONSTRAINTS LIMITING
THE CHANGE IN FT TO 1.0 IN 6HR, 1.5 IN 12HR, 2.0 IN 18HR, AND 2.5 IN
24HR WERE BROKEN. ALSO, THE CONSTRAINT RESTRICTING THE FT TO WITHIN 1.0
OF THE MET WAS BROKEN.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

21/0015Z 15.8N 102.0W SSMIS


...RAMIREZ


I'm go with 99% that Raymond will be a major at 2AM

[hurricanes1234]

On the CUSP of major hurricane status!

[hurricanes1234]

Waiting on 2 AM advisory.

[hurricanes1234]

Since no one has posted an SSD image in a long time, here's one. I'm almost sure they'll go with a major, the first of the season!!!

[hurricanes1234]

OUR FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE IS RAYMOND!!!


...RAYMOND STALLS SOUTH OF MEXICO WITH 120 MPH WINDS...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 102.2W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


This is our first major!!! Also, please note that this is the strongest hurricane in EPAC since last year's Emilia!!!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This storm is too elongated. I mean, the storm's convection is stretched vertically, which is weird! Anyways, at least you guys in the EPAC had your first Major.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 210845
TCDEP2

HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 AM PDT MON OCT 21 2013

RAYMOND CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW A CIRCULAR AND DISTINCT EYE WITH A SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE
PATTERN SURROUNDING THE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT
105 KT...FOLLOWING THE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
UW-CIMSS ADT. THIS MAKES RAYMOND A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...THE FIRST
MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC 2013 SEASON. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THIS CYCLONE HAS EXHIBITED AN IMPRESSIVE
PERIOD OF STRENGTHENING...AS IT WAS ONLY A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM
AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

THE HURRICANE HAS COME TO A HALT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS ABOUT 100
N MI SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE STEERING CURRENTS HAVE
COLLAPSED WITH A TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF RAYMOND AND A RIDGE
TO THE NORTHWEST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO STAY WITHIN THESE
WEAK CURRENTS FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THEREFORE...LITTLE MOTION IS
EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE
CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF RAYMOND IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME THE
MORE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE...FORCING RAYMOND TO MOVE WESTWARD
OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE LATEST
GLOBAL MODEL RUNS SHOW A TRACK FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER...KEEPING
THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. IN
FACT...GUIDANCE NO LONGER BRINGS THE HURRICANE INLAND AND IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES THE WARNINGS FOR MEXICO COULD BE ALTERED.

RAYMOND COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE TODAY AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM
INTENSITY CHANGES WILL LIKELY BE PRIMARILY CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND INTERNAL DYNAMICS. SLOW WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AS INDICATED BY MUCH OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE HURRICANE
AND HOW CLOSE IT GETS TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CAUSING
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 16.0N 102.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 16.3N 102.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 16.5N 102.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 16.5N 102.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 16.4N 102.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 16.0N 104.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 15.7N 106.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 15.5N 110.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAYMOND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
500 AM PDT MON OCT 21 2013

...MAJOR HURRICANE RAYMOND DRIFTING NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 102.3W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES...AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-
STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RAYMOND WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.3 WEST. RAYMOND IS
DRIFTING NORTHWARD AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A CONTINUED NORTHWARD DRIFT
IS FORECAST...AND RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST
OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY AND
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAYMOND IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATE
OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAYMOND ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[supercane4867]

CI5.9

2013OCT21 111500 5.9 949.5 112.4 5.9 6.0 6.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -19.16 -69.58 EYE

[Yellow Evan]

CI5.9

2013OCT21 111500 5.9 949.5 112.4 5.9 6.0 6.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -19.16 -69.58 EYE

Maybe 110 knts for 15z?

[hurricanes1234]

Does anyone think that Raymond is stronger now than it was at the 900 UTC advisory?

[Yellow Evan]

Does anyone think that Raymond is stronger now than it was at the 900 UTC advisory?

Yes. Even in the last hour, convection has wrapped around a bit more.

[hurricanes1234]

110 knots is on the verge of Category 4 status.

[Yellow Evan]

BTW, with Raymond becoming a major, this is our first major in a little over a year. I believe Raymond is in the top 5 latest EPAC major as well (off the top of my head, I can only think of four majors later than Raymond, (59 MX, Kenneth 11, Xina 85, Kenna)).

[hurricanes1234]

BTW, with Raymond becoming a major, this is our first major in a little over a year. I believe Raymond is in the top 5 latest EPAC major as well (off the top of my head, I can only think of four majors later than Raymond, (59 MX, Kenneth 11, Xina 85, Kenna)).

Raymond might be the latest forming first major hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

BTW, with Raymond becoming a major, this is our first major in a little over a year. I believe Raymond is in the top 5 latest EPAC major as well (off the top of my head, I can only think of four majors later than Raymond, (59 MX, Kenneth 11, Xina 85, Kenna)).

Raymond might be the latest forming first major hurricane.

It is. Old record: 1967. Olivia 67 became a major on October 14 in the GOC.

[Yellow Evan]

Best looking major in the EPAC since 2012. Almost as good as Fransisco looked in the WPAC a couple days back. Tropics have made up for the lost time the past 3 weeks, it's on a roll.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track.

EP, 17, 2013102112, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1023W, 105, 954, HU

[Yellow Evan]

12z Best Track.

EP, 17, 2013102112, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1023W, 105, 954, HU

Hmm, no change, though the pressure did come down 1 mbar.