ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ROCK]

18N 44W is where I can see whats left of the LLC...So not a TW just yet and no the NHC should not drop advisories.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
1100 AM AST FRI JUL 26 2013

...DORIAN REMAINS DISORGANIZED WHILE MOVING QUICKLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 43.4W
ABOUT 1295 MI...2085 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DORIAN.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.4 WEST. DORIAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND A
GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DORIAN IS NOT WELL
ORGANIZED...AND SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
1100 AM AST FRI JUL 26 2013

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF DORIAN IS
RATHER DISORGANIZED...WITH LITTLE OR NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING
FEATURES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 45 KT IN
AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND A RECENT ASCAT
OVERPASS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA
INDICATE THAT DORIAN WILL BE ENCOUNTERING DRY AIR OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AND THIS...ALONG WITH MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR...SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOW ONLY A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ONLY A LITTLE BELOW THE STATISTICAL-
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO...WHICH IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...IS THAT DORIAN COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE FLOW
SOUTH OF A STRONG MID- TO LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA. THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD TO THE
NORTH OF DORIAN...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE
GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND LEANS TOWARD THE GFS AND HWRF SOLUTIONS.
THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE FLORIDA
STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 17.7N 43.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 18.1N 46.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 18.7N 50.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 19.2N 54.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 19.7N 58.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 20.2N 64.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 20.5N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 31/1200Z 21.5N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[jabman98]

From Wikipedia

Dorian /ˈdɔəriən/ is a name of Greek origin meaning "from Doris", or alternatively from the Gaelic name Doireann meaning "tempestuous weather".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dorian_(name)

Is Dorian supposed to be a male name? The Dorian I know is female. I guess it's like "The Picture of Dorian Gray"?

[sunnyday]

Once again, much ado about nothing, right? Thankfully.
This is no forecast of any kind.. see the NHC or NWS for accurate predictions.

[tailgater]

[tailgater]

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
1100 AM AST FRI JUL 26 2013

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF DORIAN IS
RATHER DISORGANIZED...WITH LITTLE OR NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING
FEATURES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 45 KT IN
AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND A RECENT ASCAT
OVERPASS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA
INDICATE THAT DORIAN WILL BE ENCOUNTERING DRY AIR OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AND THIS...ALONG WITH MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR...SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOW ONLY A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ONLY A LITTLE BELOW THE STATISTICAL-
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO...WHICH IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...IS THAT DORIAN COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE FLOW
SOUTH OF A STRONG MID- TO LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA. THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD TO THE
NORTH OF DORIAN...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE
GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND LEANS TOWARD THE GFS AND HWRF SOLUTIONS.
THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE FLORIDA
STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE.

[Blown Away]

12z Intensity Models...Most keep Dorian as a moderate TS...Slight upward trend from 06z...I think most of the models showing decrease are based off GFS which has been burying Dorian...NHC refers to LGEM often


06z Intensity Models...Most keep Dorian as a moderate TS

[senorpepr]

G-4 is scrubbed and fixes are pushed back to 28/1730Z.


950
NOUS42 KNHC 261503
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT FRI 26 JULY 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z JULY 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-056

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES FOR TROPICAL
STORM DORIAN AT 28/1730Z NEAR 19.5N 60.0W.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS...........................(NO CHNAGES)
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP

[Blown Away]

New Levi Cowan Video...Good one again...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com

[Riptide]

Dorian is looking okay, have seen more disorganized tropical cyclones. Visible shows cirrus outflow expanding once again.

ASCAT Pass

[Bocadude85]

Dorian is looking okay, have seen more disorganized tropical cyclones. Visible shows cirrus outflow expanding once again.

ASCAT Pass

[img][/img]

New convection is also blowing up right over the LLC

[petit_bois]

GOM'ers need to keep an eye on this one...

[MGC]

Dorian does look a bit on the sickly side this morning.....still looks like a TC though.....MGC

[Stormcenter]

A lot of past major storms (I won't mention names) have looked sickly at one time or another in their lifespan
so I wouldn't put too much weight on what Dorian looks like right now......though I'm not saying he will become a major storm. IMO

Dorian does look a bit on the sickly side this morning.....still looks like a TC though.....MGC

[blp]

Dorian is looking okay, have seen more disorganized tropical cyclones. Visible shows cirrus outflow expanding once again.

ASCAT Pass

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/asca ... Bds112.png[/img]

Thanks for posting. Confirms that it is still has a decent structure.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

IMO... I think TS Dorian will become a weak TS tonight and will remain a Weak TS until Sunday, and then strengthen a bit to 45ph on Monday. Then it will strengthen again to 50mph on Tuesday, and will remain 50mph on Wednesday.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Bocadude85]

12z GFS brings Dorian into eastern Cuba in a little over 100hrs

[wxman57]

That ASCAT pass doesn't confirm an LLC. It does indicate a very sharp wave axis. No southwest winds were indicated. I think the NHC will wait until tomorrow to indicate it's no longer a TS, assuming the current trend continues.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS...Weak system that skims Hispaniola and gets buried in eastern Cuba...It appears remanants continue W and turn NW over western Cuba into EGOM...Land interaction kills it off, but the upper levels must be hostile because Dorian is very weak as it moves past 60W...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

[Bocadude85]

12z GFS...Weak system that skims Hispaniola and gets buried in eastern Cuba...It appears remanants continue W and turn NW over western Cuba into EGOM...Land interaction kills it off, but the upper levels must be hostile because Dorian is very weak as it moves past 60W...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

I would think the interaction with Hispanola is what keeps Dorian weak. Not sure I buy Dorian getting so close to Hispanola when a majority of the models are keeping him a fair distance north of there.