ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track stays at 35kts.

AL, 07, 2013091012, , BEST, 0, 301N, 649W, 35, 1008, TS

[Nate-Gillson]

o: Gabrielle came back to life! Since it's going to impact Bermuda, she's not a fish.

[Sanibel]

Gabby formed a separate identity from the cloud bank it was associated with.

[Aric Dunn]

darn radar our of burmuda is not working...

[CrazyC83]

10/1145 UTC 30.3N 64.5W T2.5/2.5 GABRIELLE -- Atlantic

[storm4u]

higher then I would have expected

10/1145 UTC 30.3N 64.5W T2.5/2.5 GABRIELLE -- Atlantic

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 65.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 10 2013

THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF GABRIELLE CONTINUES TO FEATURE VERY COLD
CLOUD TOPS IN A CDO TYPE FEATURE. MICROWAVE AND GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND THIS
STRUCTURE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 25 KT OR SO OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
ANALYZED OVER THE SYSTEM BY UW-CIMSS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB
AND SAB. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE GABRIELLE
THIS AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON THE EXACT
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE.

THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS GABRIELLE REMAINS OVER SSTS ABOVE 27C WITH
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AIDS FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. LATE IN THE
PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING
AND AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...WHICH SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY 96
HOURS. GABRIELLE SHOULD DISSIPATE OR BE ABSORBED BY DAY 5.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/10...AS THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
SITUATED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A MID/UPPER-
LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. THE FORWARD MOTION OF GABRIELLE WILL SLOW AS
THE STEERING FLOW WEAKENS...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN GRADUALLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY 48 HOURS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...GABRIELLE
WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING
INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA IN 3-4 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS LARGELY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN TRENDS A
LITTLE SLOWER AT DAYS 3 AND 4...LYING BETWEEN THE FASTER ECMWF AND
THE SLOWER TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 30.6N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 31.9N 64.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 33.1N 65.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 34.0N 65.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 35.2N 66.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 39.5N 65.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 49.0N 56.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[tolakram]

14:15Z

[Hammy]

Center exposed again, recon will probably have missed the peak by about 12 hours. The shear seems to be overtaking it.

edit: may not be weakening quite yet, at least not as of earlier

[CrazyC83]

That ASCAT pass probably suggests an intensity of about 50 kt, adjusting for the low bias. At least it was likely around there earlier.

[Aric Dunn]

radar up in burmuda..
the center coming into range
looks like a decent area on the northern side.
very likely over 50mph.

http://www.weather.bm/radarLarge.asp

[Hammy]

radar up in burmuda..
the center coming into range
looks like a decent area on the northern side.
very likely over 50mph.

http://www.weather.bm/radarLarge.asp

when is the flight expected to arrive?

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
130 PM AST TUE SEP 10 2013

...GABRIELLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...


SUMMARY OF 130 PM AST...1730 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 64.8W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES



TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
130 PM AST TUE SEP 10 2013

A PAIR OF ASCAT PASSES FROM 1342Z AND 1436Z INDICATE THAT GABRIELLE
IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. BOTH PASSES SHOWED SEVERAL
45-KT WIND RETRIEVALS...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
SPECIAL ADVISORY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD
AT 12 AND 24 HOURS TO 50 KT BASED ON THE INCREASE IN THE INITIAL
INTENSITY. THE ANALYZED 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED
OUTWARD BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA...AND THEIR FORECAST HAS BEEN
MODIFIED AS WELL TO REFLECT THE LARGER WIND FIELD. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE GABRIELLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO
PROVIDE MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON THE STRENGTH AND STRUCTURE OF
THE CYCLONE.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS SPECIAL
ADVISORY.

NOTE THAT THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY TAKES THE PLACE OF THE 200 PM
AST/1800 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1730Z 30.9N 64.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 31.9N 64.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 33.1N 65.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 34.0N 65.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 35.2N 66.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 39.5N 65.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 49.0N 56.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Storm Gabrielle

[Aric Dunn]

not surprised bet recon finds maybe a little stronger.

[tolakram]

A lot of the convection blown off in the last hour.

17:01Z

[Aric Dunn]

A lot of the convection blown off in the last hour.

17:01Z

[img]http://img833.imageshack.us/img833/4039/oyfn.jpg[/ig]

if it does not come back than it w of course weaken..

[CrazyC83]

I would have said 50 kt on that ASCAT pass, but not really surprised. A bit surprised they went with a Special Advisory package rather than updated on the intermediate.

[wxman57]

Gabrielle appears to have weakened considerably since this morning. Center is nearly fully exposed and convection is quickly diminishing. Plane better hurry before it becomes a naked swirl.

[Hammy]

Could the latest wind speed support increase to 50kts earlier in the morning in post-analysis?