ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane Alexis]

If he doesn't develop convection soon he'll be done in less than 12 hours.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Down to 45 mph winds, all that dry air is really killing it.

5:00 PM AST Fri Jul 26
Location: 17.8°N 45.8°W
Moving: W at 22 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

[caribepr]

I kind of do hope this can get its act together. Getting real tired of all the weak pathetic storms we've been having the past few seasons! Just hope the stronger more severe and deadly storms don't cause harm.

I totally understand a strong interest in storm watching/following/predicting/anticipating/etc. and enjoy the knowledge and back and forth on this forum; I've used it and learned from it during hurricane season for years. However - sorry your boredom factor depends on 'stronger more severe and deadly storms [that] don't cause harm.' Really, Storm Expert?

[TheStormExpert]

Look at the 5pm forecast track. Reminds of few storms from 2006 that dissipated over the big islands due to unfavorable conditions.

[HurrMark]

[quote="TheStormExpert"]Look at the 5pm forecast track. Reminds of few storms from 2006 that dissipated over the big islands due to unfavorable conditions.



I personally do not think the islands will make much of a difference - this may not make it that far as a viable system.

[petit_bois]

18z...Pointing to GOM...Not sure what will be left...

Could be dangerous...

[MGC]

Shear and dry air are doing a number on Dorian. I didn't expect this cyclone to weaken so quickly. Hopefully this will be the trend for the remainder of the season......MGC

[Aric Dunn]

looks like convections about to pop again i see at least 2 areas where there is building small towers atm ... will it be expansive enough to keep him alive is the question

[Blown Away]

18z Intensity...

[Blown Away]

looks like convections about to pop again i see at least 2 areas where there is building small towers atm ... will it be expansive enough to keep him alive is the question

I may be wrong and I know dry air/shear are the biggest factors for the demise of Dorian, but the dissipation at day 5 must be from landfall into Cuba? Only shot at survival would be to pull north and recurve east of Florida...

[knotimpaired]

I kind of do hope this can get its act together. Getting real tired of all the weak pathetic storms we've been having the past few seasons! Just hope the stronger more severe and deadly storms don't cause harm.

I totally understand a strong interest in storm watching/following/predicting/anticipating/etc. and enjoy the knowledge and back and forth on this forum; I've used it and learned from it during hurricane season for years. However - sorry your boredom factor depends on 'stronger more severe and deadly storms [that] don't cause harm.' Really, Storm Expert?

Well said! Kudos.

[gatorcane]

looks like convections about to pop again i see at least 2 areas where there is building small towers atm ... will it be expansive enough to keep him alive is the question

What loop are you looking at? The SSD floater I am using shows no new towers. Looks like Dorian is naked swirl bound from the loop I am using.

[TheStormExpert]

Starting to remind me a little bit of Tropical Storm Chris from 2006.

[floridasun78]

i notice ship not doing well with system

[Aric Dunn]

looks like convections about to pop again i see at least 2 areas where there is building small towers atm ... will it be expansive enough to keep him alive is the question

What loop are you looking at? The SSD floater I am using shows no new towers. Looks like Dorian is naked swirl bound from the loop I am using.

not any hot towers.. just some areas of small convection trying to get going.. thickening low levels but apparently may have been the just the sun angle

[fci]

I kind of do hope this can get its act together. Getting real tired of all the weak pathetic storms we've been having the past few seasons! Just hope the stronger more severe and deadly storms don't cause harm.

I totally understand a strong interest in storm watching/following/predicting/anticipating/etc. and enjoy the knowledge and back and forth on this forum; I've used it and learned from it during hurricane season for years. However - sorry your boredom factor depends on 'stronger more severe and deadly storms [that] don't cause harm.' Really, Storm Expert?

Well said! Kudos.

Agreed, classic example of the kind of post that, in the past; would elicit strong comments from me that likely would get me suspended or at least disciplined by Mods.
All the poster was saying was that they wanted some non-lethal "action" in the tropics.
Safe to presume it wasn't presented well and that "storm expert" doesn't want anyone to get hurt in the process.

[TheStormExpert]

For some reason I have a feeling this is a sign of what the storms MAY look like intensity wise this season. Could it be a repeat of the last 2 seasons quantity over quality??

[ninel conde]

For some reason I have a feeling this is a sign of what the storms MAY look like intensity wise this season. Could it be a repeat of the last 2 seasons quantity over quality??

could be, thats why i went 17/5/1 for my seasonal forecast. bone dry air dominated the tropics the last 2 years and little has changed so far this season. the perplexing thing is SAL isnt nearly as bad. to tie that in with dorian, SAL was never a negative factor in its demise.

[RL3AO]

Reminder that any discussion of the overall favorability or seasonal forecasts should go in another thread, such as this one.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=114541

[ronjon]

Well SHIPS brings up the intensity after 48 hrs so never say never in the tropics. He'll be traversing warmer and more moist conditions over the next 24-48 hrs so if the low level circ stays vigorous Dorian can strengthen again. Oh and I just love the posters saying now this is a harbinger of the season, lol. After two - month early systems - that in any average year would never have even formed. No I'm afraid the monsoonal west african climate that is amped up this year spells big trouble down the road, especially if that Atlantic ridge stays strong.