ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[tolakram]

Here's the main link for that buoy: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

Saved plot of wind direction. West wind might have been a fluke.

[Dave]

Recon TCPOD for 92L

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=115428

[BigA]

Recon TCPOD for 92L

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=115428

That is recon planned for tomorrow, correct?

[hurricanekid416]

when is recon leaving

[Hurricane_Luis]

when is recon leaving

Tomorrow afternoon.

[cycloneye]

when is recon leaving

Departs on Thursday at 10:30 AM EDT from Keesler base.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

UPDATE:

NHC SITE WAS DOWN FOR AWHILE. I CONTACTED COMCAST AND FOOLISHLY THEY THOUGHT IT WAS A MALWARE VIRUS... IT WAS PROBABLY A COMCAST VNS.

THEY ALMOST MADE ME PAID $50.95 LOL


THANK GOD I DIDNT!

[MGC]

Looks like the convection associated with 92L has gotten better organized over night, the disturbance appears to be getting its act together. Wish there was recon this afternoon.....tomorrow recon might find something more significant....MGC

[Dave]

when is recon leaving

Departs on Thursday at 10:30 AM EDT from Keesler base.

Thanks Cycloneye, first I couldn't get to the NHC this morning, now I can, but now S2K is loading slow...Comcast what else.

[Rgv20]

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1048 AM EDT WED AUG 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE WILL
CONTINUE WESTWARD REACHING THE MEXICAN COAST THIS WEEKEND OVER
THE SW GULF ACCOMPANIED BY LOW PRESSURE...POSSIBLY A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MERGE
WITH A TROUGH MOVING E THROUGH THE NE GULF WATERS FRI THROUGH
SUN.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT4.shtml

[tropicwatch]

UPDATE:

NHC SITE WAS DOWN FOR AWHILE. I CONTACTED COMCAST AND FOOLISHLY THEY THOUGHT IT WAS A MALWARE VIRUS... IT WAS PROBABLY A COMCAST VNS.

THEY ALMOST MADE ME PAID $50.95 LOL


THANK GOD I DIDNT!

I have had problems accessing storm2k this morning and other sites like


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[tolakram]

I'm thinking the CIMSS outage is unrelated. I can reach the site but it appears their web server is having issues.

[cycloneye]

TCFA issued

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT22 KNGU 141200
REF/A/FLEWEACEN NORFOLK VA/141300Z AUG 13//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT21 KNGU 141300)//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.2N 82.9W TO 20.4N 88.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 141200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.1N 82.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING INENSIFICATION OF
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS APPROXIMATELY 246 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF CANCUN, MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT APPROXIMATELY
10 TO 15 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS.
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 80 TO 83 DEGREES AND MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPEMENT OF THIS TROPICAL
FEATURE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 151200Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 20.8W.//

[MGC]

92L is sitting right under a UL ridge....could not have better upper environment.....plenty warm water too....could take off fast.....MGC

[tailgater]

I for one don't think we have a LLC yet, a brief w wind at that buoy could have been just a small eddy or nearby T-storm. I see mostly southern and easterly winds but the oresssures are falling, so it's just a matter of time. I do think they will be able to close off a TD or weak TS tomorrow.

I know Fla panhandle north and eastward are saturated but La and MS/Ala. have been plenty wet the last few days also.

[ROCK]

over the hottest waters in the basin right now...

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 5atd26.png

[wxman57]

No clear signs of an LLC yet. I suspect it'll be upgraded tomorrow.

[ROCK]

I think I see somewhat of a MLC taken shape around 17.9N 84W.....might be upgraded tomorrow once back over water IMO....

[Stormcenter]

wxman57 as of right now assuming it does develop where do you see 92L possibly making landfall?

No clear signs of an LLC yet. I suspect it'll be upgraded tomorrow.

[CaneCurious]

I agree. I think tomorrow is going to be the day. I am going to go out on a limb and say that they bypass TD and designate it a weak TS when Recon gets in tomorrow.