ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

[chaser1]

Hmmm, taking a bit more of a look at the system and present steering....it really seems more appearant that this could be a game of inches (in terms of whether this system ultimately moves west or north). If one looks at the 18Z NAM (stop laughing..., i'm talking about the steering flow LOL), is is obvious that NAM (and seemingly the GFS 18Z up to 15 hr.'s) has the system well inland over Yucatan at 24 hours. On the other hand, if one were to "buy into" a COC developing a bit further east than where NHC presently indicates or the system simply deepening a good deal this evening, thus potentially causing a slower pause in forward motion, than I'd further suggest a more northward motion. In fact, looking at the 24 hour NAM, the flow in the NW Caribbean up into the E. Gulf is predominately southerly. Granted, such depicted flow at 24 hr.s in the NW Carib., might also be reflecting the backside circulation of what the NAM claims is 92L further west.

At the moment, I'm thinking "north" in general, however if that were to materialize....than am thinking even more eastward than previous (Panama City to Ceder Key??)

[CrazyC83]

It's a tough call regardless! The trough will be driving the bus for sure. Interesting mention of a cut-off after initial trough pickup...

When is the trough expected to reach about 90W (longitude of New Orleans)? If the connection is completely missed, this thing is going nowhere fast.

[Rgv20]

If it misses the connection with the trough 92L is going to have a couple of days sitting in bath water....12zECMWF collapses the steering in the BOC/West/South GOM.

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like the 18z GFS really doesn't do much with 92L at all. Doesn't even look like a low ever closes off:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013081418/gfs_mslp_wind_watl.html

[chaser1]

It's a tough call regardless! The trough will be driving the bus for sure. Interesting mention of a cut-off after initial trough pickup...

When is the trough expected to reach about 90W (longitude of New Orleans)? If the connection is completely missed, this thing is going nowhere fast.

Yep, could happen.... If that were to all play out, than after some brief time sitting in some COL, i'd guess a West or WNW bend back could occur after the heat ridge starts to build in, in the wake of the departing trough. Still, for now this wouldn't be my first guess of what might eventually transpire - certainly a possibility though.

[RL3AO]

Looks like the 18z GFS really doesn't do much with 92L at all. Doesn't even look like a low ever closes off:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013081418/gfs_mslp_wind_watl.html

I gotta go with my eyes here. There is a quickly organizing system in the Western Caribbean. Why the models don't pick up on it I'm not sure.

[ROCK]

18Z GFS finally comes to its senses.....lol....BOC/WGOM....that's going to swing some models...

[chaser1]

Looks like the 18z GFS really doesn't do much with 92L at all. Doesn't even look like a low ever closes off:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013081418/gfs_mslp_wind_watl.html

I noticed that, but I think there's something screwy about this run. The fact that there is not even any acknowledgement of the precip while looking at the surface level leads me to believe that one could just as well throw out the 18Z run with the bathwater.

On a different note, someone brought up an interesting question..... Which (if either) develops first into a named T.S.?? My guess is that 93L is still too enmeshed within the ITCZ for the very near term, thus believe that 93L will be named first. 'Course, if the NAM and other "westward suggesting models" be correct, than land may prevent 92L from developing into a named storm for a day or two longer.

[Ivanhater]

18Z GFS finally comes to its senses.....lol....BOC/WGOM....that's going to swing some models...

Tracking the 850mb vort...it is still brings it to the north central gulf coast

[chaser1]

18Z GFS finally comes to its senses.....lol....BOC/WGOM....that's going to swing some models...

Wow, just saw the GFS run beyond the 15 hours where it showed nothing. I disagree with that solution, given that there seems to be a good deal more there now, than what the 18Z run depicts. I think this 18Z run of the GFS altogether "missed the boat" on properly initializing 92L, at least for this run. Thats coming from someone who definitely leans more "GFS than Euro" in terms of system initialization and cyclogenisis.

[Rgv20]

What I notice is that the 18zGFS has a bit more ridging in the Central GOM than the 12z run by Friday Morning..


18zGFS forecast valid for Saturday Morning


Uploaded with ImageShack.us


12zGFS forecast valid for Saturday Morning


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[chaser1]

18Z GFS finally comes to its senses.....lol....BOC/WGOM....that's going to swing some models...

Tracking the 850mb vort...it is still brings it to the north central gulf coast

Yeah, that split flow thing where the 850mb heads off to the NW while an apparent "warm front" pushes west, just seems a bit odd. Especially odd given that the steering flow is not screaming westward and even more-so, given the fact that there would seem to be a nice anticyclone building over the entire system, thus further enhancing some vertical development. If that holds true, I cant see reason with the present conditions for any shearing to take place and thus any co-located system would seemingly move slowly towards the WNW to NW in the near term.

I"m sticking with my "18Z GFS is on Crack" thought

[ROCK]

18Z GFS finally comes to its senses.....lol....BOC/WGOM....that's going to swing some models...

Tracking the 850mb vort...it is still brings it to the north central gulf coast

which vort?...pick one...

[Ivanhater]

Pretty obvious when you run the 850mb vort loop...gets picked up to the NE and becomes strung out.

[ROCK]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_27.png

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS

[ROCK]

oh I have no doubt some energy from 92L goes to the NE but the entity itself I have doubts it gets picked up by the trof....

[Ivanhater]

oh I have no doubt some energy from 92L goes to the NE but the entity itself I have doubts it gets picked up by the trof....

Very true...if it takes a while to get going, it won't get deep enough to get picked up

[wxwatcher4405]

Question...if it takes longer than expected to get going will the middle texas coast to Sw Louisiana be in play?...just learning so don't bash me

[fendie]

Question...if it takes longer than expected to get going will the middle texas coast to Sw Louisiana be in play?...just learning so don't bash me

Unlikely to make landfall west of the TX/LA border given the current mid to upper-level flow forecasts. Of course, if it stalls in the BoC and the mid to upper-level wind pattern changes then the eventual track will change.

The above post is just my opinion and NOT an official forecast. See the NHC for official forecasts.