ATL: FERNAND - Renmants - Discussion

[wxman57]

Of course, wind gusts won't qualify a system for upgrade to a TS, but banding features on satellite and evidence of a closed circulation should qualify for upgrade to at least a depression. If not, then what happens with systems out of recon range when ASCAT misses on its pass? No upgrade?

[Ikester]

Of course, wind gusts won't qualify a system for upgrade to a TS, but banding features on satellite and evidence of a closed circulation should qualify for upgrade to at least a depression. If not, then what happens with systems out of recon range when ASCAT misses on its pass? No upgrade?

I was referring to TS. Seems like 'Depression' is overlooked more and more.

[ninel conde]

looks like a storm to me. boc super favorable right now. another wave in central carib may be there again in a few days.

[Dave]

There's no update on todays tcpod but tomorrow was updated at 1 pm today:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 251658
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0100 PM EDT SUN 25 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-085

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. BAY OF CAMPECHE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 26/1500Z
B. AFXXX 0206A CYCLONE
C. 26/1200Z
D. 21.0N 97.0W
E. 26/1430Z TO 26/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

[CrazyC83]

How about the oil rigs there, do they provide any clues of a surface circulation?

[Dave]

Ok the mission has not been cancelled yet...just standby.

[cycloneye]

RENUMBER

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al062013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201308251911
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

[CrazyC83]

Maybe changing planes due to a communications issue on the original one?

If there is clear signs of a LLC, they should just declare it TD6 and put out warnings, and upgrade with the Recon flight. Otherwise, we'll get the truth around 8 pm.

[CrazyC83]

Based on that Renumber, I would guess they will conservatively set it at 30 kt with TD6 while awaiting Recon, then have a Special Advisory at 7 pm CDT (8 pm EDT) or so assuming they find a tropical storm.

[Aric Dunn]

very likely a TS.

[Aric Dunn]

radar starting to show some convection building closer to the a well defined center.

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/alvarado/ ... _anima.php

[cycloneye]

Still waiting for the new 18z Best Track with the new intensity.

[cycloneye]

Updated 18z Best Track says Tropical Depression Six.

06, 2013082518, , BEST, 0, 194N, 951W, 30, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 100, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIX

[Aric Dunn]

Updated 18z Best Track says Tropical Depression Six.

06, 2013082518, , BEST, 0, 194N, 951W, 30, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 100, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIX

yeah I doubt its just a TD. if recon ever goes pretty likely they would find a TS

[weatherwindow]

Good afternoon, Luis......NML-TC(Navy Meteorological Lab, Monterrey): 06L 1006mb 30kts 19.4N 95.1W....Grtz from KW, Rich

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... /dmsp&TYPE

[Dave]

Ok let's do this again...renumber on plane to AF 309 and in the air enroute

[Hurricaneman]

we might end up with a special advisory at 8pm with recon data

[NDG]

About time recon took off

For the next two hours time to watch my Saints kick some Texan butt

[Dave]

About time recon took off

There were some problems with the first plane is why the delay.

[CrazyC83]

1044mb is the background pressure extrapolated, so the pressure of the storm could be quite high.