ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

['CaneFreak]

And mid-level circulation over Yucatan. Going to take time to build another one in the presence of 20 knots of shear.

circ center right here..

http://imageshack.us/a/img841/5576/dquy.jpg

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO at 70%-80%

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE
THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED...AND THE HURRICANE HUNTER
MISSION SCHEDULED FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
LIKELY SPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO AND COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS ALREADY
IMPACTED BY TORRENTIAL RAINS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

[blp]

Definite spin going on. It could ramp up quickly and it is in the right area (BOC) to do it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/95L/imagery/rgb_lalo-animated.gif

[cycloneye]

Campeche cam.



http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam-c ... amica.html

[wxman57]

Development chances about 99.99999%. No doubt it will become TS Jerry within 24 hrs.

[Aric Dunn]

its beginning to move into a low shear environment on the central BOC. should see convection return very shortly over the next few hours

[Bailey1777]

looks like Ingrid part 2.....only with moisture getting strung out as front drops

[Portastorm]

Development chances about 99.99999%. No doubt it will become TS Jerry within 24 hrs.

The Storm 2K press office is preparing our tweet this afternoon to read as follows: "Resident S2K and famed private sector met bullish on 95L development chances"

How's that?!

[Stormcenter]

Wow you can't get anymore definitive than that. Thanks wxman57

Development chances about 99.99999%. No doubt it will become TS Jerry within 24 hrs.

[Airboy]

Looks like a large rotation?

[ScottNAtlanta]

Development chances about 99.99999%. No doubt it will become TS Jerry within 24 hrs.

If wxman57 is that bullish, I'm in.

[tolakram]

Live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21&lon=-94&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 95, 2013091818, , BEST, 0, 205N, 912W, 25, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M

[alan1961]

A bit closer in, looks a decent circulation to say the least.

[tropicwatch]

its beginning to move into a low shear environment on the central BOC. should see convection return very shortly over the next few hours

Now all it needs to do is deal with a little dry air and things should start to come together nicely

['CaneFreak]

Within 24 hours? Agreed. Today? Probably not.

Development chances about 99.99999%. No doubt it will become TS Jerry within 24 hrs.

[Tireman4]

Development chances about 99.99999%. No doubt it will become TS Jerry within 24 hrs.

So you are saying, "there is a chance"?

[Aric Dunn]

Within 24 hours? Agreed. Today? Probably not.

Development chances about 99.99999%. No doubt it will become TS Jerry within 24 hrs.

i would say withing 24 hours. Convection beginning to build on the se side wont be much longer till we have deep convection.

[stormlover2013]

i say later on today it will be!!

[cycloneye]

Bouy at Central BOC:

Station 42055
NDBC
Location: 22.203N 94W
Date: Wed, 18 Sep 2013 17:50:00 UTC

Winds: NE (40°) at 17.5 kt gusting to 21.4 kt
Significant Wave Height: 5.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ENE (68°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.82 in and falling
Air Temperature: 83.3 F
Dew Point: 77.4 F
Water Temperature: 83.5 F

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055