ATL: KAREN - Models

[windnrain]

The curve is a bit different though. GFS brings it further west than the last run before it starts curving back. I was watching the 12z turn into the 0z on a loop site and it jumped pretty significantly east along the track when it switched to 0z.

[MidnightRain]

That's not a big shift at all, it nearly mirrored the NHC's current forecast.

[windnrain]

I'm guessing we're just going to get a tighter NHC forecast track.

[windnrain]

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/displayMod.php?var=gfs_500_vrt&loop=selected&hours=hr000hr012hr024hr036hr048hr072

Man... that is quite the hook east on the GFS model loop at the end there.

[tolakram]

12Z GFS, weakening at landfall. Saved images at lowest pressure and landfall.

[Steve]

I think the important thing to note with the 12z GFS is the time it's off the coast, kind of moving slowly and pulsing. That could mean some potentially heavy rainfall for points east of the circulation. Looks like most of the heaviest rain stays off the coast, but there is a little pulse up around Dothan if you run the 48 Hour Precip. QPF shows most of the precipitation in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana (delta/mouth of the river/toe of Louisiana) and then south of the MS Gulf Coast and Mobile Bay. QPF shows the lion's share of the heaviest rainfall is offshore. Click the QFP link below for the "bullseye" which is somewhat south and west of what GFS rainfall estimates show.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif

This post is NOT official.

[ROCK]

the 12Z CMC is more west into LA
12Z NAV into LA
12Z NAVGEM into LA
0Z EURO into LA

GFS stands alone....in track and intensity

[stormlover2013]

will you post the nav and cmc please

[stormlover2013]

CMC SW LA-http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/CMCTROPATL_12z/cmcloop.html

[Aric Dunn]

cmc has been off its rocker ... not even looking at it anymore. lol

[stormlover2013]

had fl yesterday you never know

[deltadog03]

EURO is pretty much nonexistent with this. There is a closed isobar, but its meh at best. Ton of rain to LA tho…. GFS looks to strong and to far EAST. I would say mobile bay and a 40-45kt TS at landfall. *Thats my Opinion*

[LaBreeze]

CMC SW LA-http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/CMCTROPATL_12z/cmcloop.html

Wow, this is way out in left field - not believing this one.

[deltadog03]

Also looks like euro will be east this run as well….Looks like NEAR mobile maybe a tad stronger?

[SunnyThoughts]

Also looks like euro will be east this run as well….Looks like NEAR mobile maybe a tad stronger?

I'd rather it come right over me, than have it go into Mobile lol If it ends up being asymmetrical with all the weather to the east of the center..guess the strongest winds ( although not incredible) as well as most of the rain will end up here in Pensacola. ( we are about 60 miles east of Mobile)

[tolakram]

I'm trying to understand the euro run.

48 hours has it south of La, 72 has it just south of Mississippi coast, 96 has it in central GA.

So a hard right turn, skirting the coast as it moves east, north east, and landfall near GFS spot. IMO.

[LaBreeze]

I'm trying to understand the euro run.

48 hours has it south of La, 72 has it just south of Mississippi coast, 96 has it in central GA.

So a hard right turn, skirting the coast as it moves east, north east, and landfall near GFS spot. IMO.

That is if it doesn't go "poof" first - 2013 season of the "poof".

[tolakram]

E-Wall site updated.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html#picture







96 hours is over Atlanta.

[brunota2003]

Can anyone post the spaghetti models? I haven't seen them posted in a while.

[Aric Dunn]

hwrf 75kt hurricane into panama