ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical

[floridasun78]

it look like wrong spot to form but were it found low shear area but land will kill it

[floridasun78]

ABNT20 KNHC 161730
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE COASTS OF
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. ALTHOUGH
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF THE DISTURBANCE
EMERGES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN A DAY OR SO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[floridasun78]

POSSIBLE IF THE DISTURBANCE
EMERGES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA their still chance may move a bit into nw carrbbean this cast say

[NDG]

I don't like the fact of how fast the UL winds changed for the favorable side for development in the Caribbean, and we are only in mid June

[floridasun78]

I don't like the fact of how fast the UL winds changed for the favorable side for development in the Caribbean, and we are only in mid June

was shear suppose be high in carribbean? it look no shear or light shear nw carribbean

[cycloneye]

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1808 UTC SUN JUN 16 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932013) 20130616 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130616 1800 130617 0600 130617 1800 130618 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 83.7W 15.2N 86.6W 15.9N 89.2W 16.6N 91.6W
BAMD 14.6N 83.7W 15.5N 85.8W 16.3N 87.8W 17.1N 89.7W
BAMM 14.6N 83.7W 15.4N 86.1W 16.1N 88.3W 16.7N 90.3W
LBAR 14.6N 83.7W 15.6N 85.9W 16.8N 88.2W 17.8N 90.4W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 30KTS 33KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130618 1800 130619 1800 130620 1800 130621 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.3N 93.5W 18.2N 97.2W 19.3N 100.5W 20.4N 104.0W
BAMD 17.8N 91.6W 19.0N 95.1W 20.0N 98.4W 20.8N 102.2W
BAMM 17.1N 92.3W 17.8N 96.4W 18.4N 100.4W 19.2N 104.7W
LBAR 19.2N 92.3W 22.0N 95.4W 24.8N 96.5W 25.8N 97.5W
SHIP 34KTS 37KTS 40KTS 43KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 83.7W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 13.7N LONM12 = 81.6W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 13.0N LONM24 = 79.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

Here is a video about 93L and some analysis about the MJO by Levi Cowan.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... l-america/

[Aric Dunn]

The initialization maybe too far south. just like yesterday the convection to the north expanded farther and a good MLC formed under it now that area has expanded even farther and likely will produce another mlc over water and may have enough time to get surface reflection going before going over the yucatan

[cycloneye]

Less shear going on or these graphics are not so good?

[cycloneye]

Belize cam. Thanks to BZSTORM for providing it.

[jinftl]

Dr. Jeff Masters take on the system this afternoon:


The wave will cross over the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday and may emerge into the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche as early as Wednesday. At that point, the models continue to predict a slow west-northwest motion, bringing the wave ashore into Mexico between Veracruz and Tampico late in the week. Wind shear is expected to remain high during the entire period, keeping any development slow. The Bay of Campeche is a region where the topography aids the spin-up of tropical cyclones, so the disturbance's odds of formation are the greatest on Wednesday through Friday, after it crosses the Yucatan. None of the models develop the disturbance, and there is no indication that this system will affect the U.S., as a strong ridge of high pressure over the U.S. during the coming week should keep the tropical wave trapped in the southern Gulf of Mexico.

[cycloneye]

Aric, look at these observations. NW wind in Puerto Cabezas in the NE tip of Nicaragua.

[Hurricaneman]

Aric, look at these observations. NW wind in Puerto Cabezas in the NE tip of Nicaragua.

Looks like a sharp wave with a possible low trying to develop 20miles northeast of the tip of Houndoras from what I can see especially with the obs seen here

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Had a wind gust to 53 mph here on Cayman Islands from an outer band of 93L!
My handle says Tampa Bay because that is where I live when I'm not attending school in the
Caymans.
http://caymanchillin.com/caymanchillin-weather.html

[ozonepete]

Less shear going on or these graphics are not so good?

Luis, these shear graphics are ok overall, though I still look at them as rough approximations. One time they're often less reliable is when shear is rapidly changing which looks to be the case here. Also, since CIMSS uses cloud movement at different levels as part of its method of obtaining wind speeds to calculate the shear, it sometimes doesn't do well on shear with developing systems like this or when there's not many mid and upper level clouds in the flow outside the system. It sometimes helps to look at mid-level shear and their latest mid-level shear chart looks good...

[Syx6sic]

From radar loops I have seen looks like the center trying to form just north of the coast but it could be my eyes playing tricks on me and happy Father's Day to all the fathers out there

[wxman57]

Low-level center appears to be inland over northern Nicaragua. I have no disagreement with the model initialization. It may briefly emerge back over water before moving into Belize, but not long enough for development in the SW Caribbean. Though shear may be a bit high in the western Caribbean, it's projected to be quite low <10kts and <5kts in the southern Bay of Campeche Tue-Wed. Would like to see the NHC's projection of development chances beyond 48hrs. I think they're too high for the first 48 hrs (30%) but I'd go maybe 80-90% Tue PM-Thu in the southern BoC before it moves inland into southern Mexico for the final time. All it will take is that low-level center moving over the BoC and I think development is a certainty down there.

[floridasun78]

it big tropical wave cover whole nw carribbean

[ozonepete]

Low-level center appears to be inland over northern Nicaragua. I have no disagreement with the model initialization. It may briefly emerge back over water before moving into Belize, but not long enough for development in the SW Caribbean. Though shear may be a bit high in the western Caribbean, it's projected to be quite low <10kts and <5kts in the southern Bay of Campeche Tue-Wed. Would like to see the NHC's projection of development chances beyond 48hrs. I think they're too high for the first 48 hrs (30%) but I'd go maybe 80-90% Tue PM-Thu in the southern BoC before it moves inland into southern Mexico for the final time. All it will take is that low-level center moving over the BoC and I think development is a certainty down there.

Good assessment, wxman. It already has a lot of spin and good symmetry; more than enough to maintain itself into the BOC where conditions for development should be very good.

[Hurricaneman]

The perfect analog for 93L has to be 2005 Bret, had little time to develop over the BOC but just enough time to become a minimal tropical storm which I think this system may pull off at best