WPAC: RUMBIA - Tropical Storm

[RobWESTPACWX]

Well this is my thoughts on it now. Granted its still early and this will likely be changing. But if I was a betting man this would be my bet.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JMA products.

[vrif]

The latest 12Z EC does not intensify the TD as much in the SCS as the last run. EC is still intensifying the subtropical high, causing second landfall to creep closer to HK.

[vrif]

TCFA



WTPN21 PGTW 271930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.2N 130.8E TO 13.1N 126.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 271452Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.0N 130.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.9N
131.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 130.4E, APPROXIMATELY 509 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILLIPINES. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL CIRCULATION IS
BROAD, A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS CONSOLIDATING BENEATH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BETWEEN PALAU AND MINDANAO. A 271106Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED, BUT IMPROVING, DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AROUND THE
WESTERN QUADRANT AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. A
271452Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATED AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH 20-25
KNOT WINDS. A 271800Z NEARBY SHIP REPORT INDICATED 230 WINDS AT 20
KNOTS AND 1006.9 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY INCREASING, BUT STILL MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW, POSSIBLY INCREASING ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
281930Z.
//
NNNN

[Alyono]

probably a moderate TS for northern Luzon in about 60 hours

[stormstrike]

it's looking more impressive.. and it's still moving west..



btw, ECMWF model does not show this system on their recent run...weird..not even a weak tropical depression...

[Typhoon Hunter]

ECMWF for a couple of years now has been total garbage at spotting TC formation. I remember fondly the glory days of 2007 and 2008 when it spotted TCs many days in advance, a great example being Sepat in '07 which it nailed 10 days in advance!

99W certainly looking impressing but no upgrade from JMA yet at 00z.

[stormstrike]

JTWC is gonna upgrade this soon..

NRL and RAMMB has its max wind at 25kts

Minor TD threshold.....so let's just wait for its forecast track..

interesting..

[vrif]

It looks like JMA will upgrade it within the next 24 hours.

WTPQ30 RJTD 280000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 09.5N 129.3E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 280000 UTC IS FAIR.
TD WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TD WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE SPIRAL CLOUD BANDS HAVE BECOME WELL ORGANIZED AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

[RobWESTPACWX]

I made some new revisions on my video today. This storm is a brain teaser the last 24hrs.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ek9VWji2VYc[/youtube]

[vrif]

The convection looks really good.

[stormstrike]

it's already 06W in NOAA..

but there's still no forecast track...

[stormstrike]

FINALLY!

but no prognostic reasoning available yet....

[mrbagyo]

FINALLY!

but no prognostic reasoning available yet....

that track look scary .. looks like it will spoil the silver wedding anniversary of my parents...

Can this one pull a "Xangsane type explosion"?

I can still remember the wedding of my cousin way back on September 28, 2006 at the height of the rampage of typhoon Xangsane in NCR, Calabarzon...and it was bad. really bad

[dexterlabio]

ahh we'll never know what will happen. but in case of Xangxane, it was quasi-stationary at some point with little movement east of Visayas...that gave it more time to gather strength and then rapidly intensified. If 06W gets stuck at a slow pace, this may have more time to intensify. By the looks of it though there is less than a day for it to intensify, so for me it could just be a weak storm.

[mrbagyo]

here's the prognostic

WDPN31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING
NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 572 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A
272346Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE AND SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AROUND THE
WESTERN QUADRANTS AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A WEAK TUTT CELL TO
THE NORTHEAST. SSTS ARE FAVORABLE AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
29 AND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 06W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE 271800Z 500 MB NAVGEM AND GFS
MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE IS THE STR
WHICH EXTENDS WESTWARD TO HONG KONG. THE MODEL FIELDS FORECAST THE
STR TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. AS
SUCH, TD 06W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS THE
PHILIPPINES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA THROUGH TAU 72. THIS FORECAST
TRACK IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72. TD
06W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AND THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES. THE SYSTEM IS THEN
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT ENTERS THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA. INCREASING VWS MAY POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THE
SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. CURRENT
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AREA INDICATES HIGH (30
TO 40 KNOT) VWS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FOR THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
INTENSITY, AS LAND INTERACTION ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES POSES THE
THREAT OF WEAKENING THE SYSTEM.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 06W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AS IT MAKES LANDFALL INTO SOUTHERN
CHINA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS NORTHWEST TRACK TO
TAU 96 AS IT APPROACHES HONG KONG AND THEN DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY
TAU 120. TD 06W IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AN INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS AT TAU
96 AND DISSIPATE TO 20 KNOTS BY TAU 120. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST DUE TO LIMITED
DYNAMIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE.//
NNNN

[vrif]

For the latest 0Z EC run, the long range track for 06W looks the same as the previous other runs. The model is still forecasting the STR to be relatively static, so the track is still heading straight for HK.

[vrif]

The latest oscat is showing the southern portion has strong winds.

[mrbagyo]

JTWC and PAGASA forecast track are almost the same

[stormstrike]

there it goes.. moving more to the northwest.. but not as impressive looking as few hours ago..

[RobWESTPACWX]

Stormstrike, may I ask for the link of that NOAA FLOATER?