EPAC: DALILA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Up to 70%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI JUN 28 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

EP, 96, 2013062818, , BEST, 0, 108N, 1043W, 25, 1008, LO

[cycloneye]

Will be a threat to land in Mexico and as a Hurricane.

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1841 UTC FRI JUN 28 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962013) 20130628 1800 UTC

        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        130628  1800   130629  0600   130629  1800   130630  0600

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.8N 104.3W   11.1N 104.8W   11.4N 105.0W   12.0N 104.9W
BAMD    10.8N 104.3W   11.1N 104.8W   11.6N 105.0W   12.5N 104.7W
BAMM    10.8N 104.3W   11.1N 104.6W   11.8N 104.7W   12.8N 104.2W
LBAR    10.8N 104.3W   11.2N 104.9W   12.1N 105.7W   13.4N 106.4W
SHIP        25KTS          36KTS          49KTS          64KTS
DSHP        25KTS          36KTS          49KTS          64KTS

        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        130630  1800   130701  1800   130702  1800   130703  1800

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.0N 104.4W   16.8N 103.7W   20.2N 104.5W   22.0N 106.9W
BAMD    13.5N 104.4W   16.8N 104.6W   20.1N 105.4W   21.9N 106.2W
BAMM    14.0N 103.9W   17.6N 104.5W   20.7N 106.2W   21.9N 108.3W
LBAR    14.6N 107.3W   17.3N 108.8W   19.4N 109.0W   20.3N 107.2W
SHIP        77KTS          85KTS          82KTS          80KTS
DSHP        77KTS          85KTS          82KTS          80KTS

         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  10.8N LONCUR = 104.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =   3KT
LATM12 =  10.6N LONM12 = 103.7W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 =   4KT
LATM24 =  10.4N LONM24 = 103.0W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   15NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  120NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM



[Hurricaneman]

I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes a Tropical Storm by some time tomorrow, I enjoy tracking these because they harm nobody

[cycloneye]

I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes a Tropical Storm by some time tomorrow, I enjoy tracking these because they harm nobody

Well,this one may be different as it looks like it will make landfall or close call somewhere on the Mexican coast.

[zeehag]

i do not like those tracks--bringing it right to me.....

[cycloneye]

brunota2003, are you going to do a RI forecast for this one once it develops into a TC? I know you didn't get Cosme right because of how large it was but I think you may have a good candidate here for that with the track that is forecast.

[cycloneye]

Hey peeps,the squadron will be ready to go next Monday.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0110 PM EDT FRI 28 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z JUNE 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-028 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS -- ADDED
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE FIX OF A DEVELOPING
HURRICANE OFF MEXICO'S WEST COAST NEAR 18.0N 106.0W
AT 01/1800Z.

[cycloneye]

TCFA issued.

WTPN21 PHNC 282000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.0N 104.5W TO 17.6N 105.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
281800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N
104.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.8N 104.3W,
APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. RECENT
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED UNDERNEATH PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION. A 281503Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE
CONSOLIDATING LLCC AND INDICATES FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A 281601Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATED 15-20
KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS WELL AS LOW (5 TO 10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED BETWEEN 15 AND 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB.
DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

[Kingarabian]

Hey peeps,the squadron will be ready to go next Monday.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0110 PM EDT FRI 28 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z JUNE 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-028 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS -- ADDED
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE FIX OF A DEVELOPING
HURRICANE OFF MEXICO'S WEST COAST NEAR 18.0N 106.0W
AT 01/1800Z.

YAY!

[Yellow Evan]

This feels weird for late June. An early season storm threatening Jalisco and passing south of BCP is rare, I can only find a couple analogues (Emillia 06, Douglas 08, TD One-E 09) and all three are terrible analogues.

[cycloneye]

Up to 80%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI JUN 28 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND ONLY A SMALL
INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT
AROUND 5 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Yellow Evan]

I think we'll see a TD tomorrow morning.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JUN 29 2013


BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
LOW PRES CENTER AT 11N105W 1008 MB BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
WITH CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED AND UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT
AND AT LOWER LEVELS. WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 28 DEG
...SURROUNDED BY WARM MOIST AIR MASS...VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE JUST TO ITS NW AND DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE ALOFT TO
PROVIDE GOOD OUTFLOW...NHC BOOSTED ITS PROBABILITY OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS TO 80 PERCENT. SIMILARLY
...MODEL GUIDANCE INTENSIFY SYSTEM TO TROPICAL CYCLONE AND TAKE
IT N CLOSER TO COAST OF MEXICO THEN RUN NW PARALLEL TO THE COAST
BEFORE TURNING W ALONG 20N AWAY FROM THE COAST. PRESENTLY...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION...SOME IN CURVING BANDS
...ARE WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER.

[zeehag]

they are gorgeous, but i dont like em from my perspective, at present...

[greenkat]

The thing I want this system to do is RI, but go out to sea and not harm zeehag and company

[Yellow Evan]

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS
CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENT
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM ON
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AT AROUND 5 MPH.

[Yellow Evan]

Models

[cycloneye]

Remains at 90%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT JUN 29 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS
CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENT
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM TODAY
OR TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT AROUND 5 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

Todays TCPOD for Monday and Tuesday.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT SAT 29 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z TO 01/1100Z JULY 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-029

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS -- ADDED
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL MISSION ON SYSTEM
OFF MEXICO'S WEST COAST FOR 01/1800Z NEAR 17.5N AND 105.5W.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE MISSION ON SAME SYSTEM
OFF MEXICO'S WEST COAST NEAR 189.2N 107.7W FOR 02/1800Z.