CPAC: GIL - Post-Tropical

[WeatherGuesser]

Early track looks like a carbon copy of Flossie.

[Yellow Evan]

really impressive stuff going on in the east pac. you wouldnt expect in a non el nino year for these systems to be following an almost exact path to hawaii and remaining intact doing so.

I doubt the storm will remain intact to Hawaii. Flossie was a once every PDO cold phase storm.

Hey man, these EPAC systems are starting to prove to the world that cold SST's don't mean a thing. The only thing that did Flossie in was that the shear finally kicked in and allowed that dry substance to simmer down Flossie.

So I think for Gil or Henriette the main problem will be shear.

I agree somewhat, but I think Flossie was somewhat lucky to have made it that far. You can't expect every storm that forms near 120 to come close to Hawaii.

[Yellow Evan]

Early track looks like a carbon copy of Flossie.

I think it might pass further south than Flossie did, but its remnants could still threaten Hawaii.

[Kingarabian]

Dry air less daunting around Hawaii thanks to Flossie.

[gatorcane]

As a depression looks better structurally than any system we have seen in the Atlantic so far this year!

[Yellow Evan]

As a depression looks better structurally than any system we have seen in the Atlantic so far this year!

I think as a whole EPAC storms are better looking the ATL storms. ATL storms often having problems maintain a closed LLC, especially during the last 3 or 4 hurricane seasons.

[hawaiigirl]

double trouble? This is going to be fun.
Question: if they track south of the islands... What's the chance of them doing an iniki?

[Kingarabian]

double trouble? This is going to be fun.
Question: if they track south of the islands... What's the chance of them doing an iniki?

Well you need a decent system first that is not shallow. Then you will need to have a weakness in the sub tropical ridge.

I say it's unlikely because the NHC barely has this making it to 140W. They don't have it tracking south.

[Yellow Evan]

double trouble? This is going to be fun.
Question: if they track south of the islands... What's the chance of them doing an iniki?

Iniki is a once in 100 year storm IMO.

You need quite a few things IMO:
1) A major hurricane
2) A weakness in the ridge
3) A trough setup due north of the Hawaii
4) Somewhat favorable conditions so it does not fall apart

I'd say an Iwa-type storm is much more realistic than an Iniki.

[meriland23]

We have two systems on their way to or near Hawaii now. Wow. What are the chances either of them are TS or Hur by the time they get to Hawaii (or near) IYO

[cycloneye]

Wow this was quick.


TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 30 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS....WITH CURVED BANDING FEATURES
BECOMING NOTICEABLY BETTER DEFINED. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
IS 35 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM
TAFB...AND THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING...WITH
SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATERS...WEAK SHEAR...AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE
LIKELY TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL WIND
SPEED FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL DSHIPS MODEL.

GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 285/13. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
WESTWARD FROM A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE
APPROACHING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IN A DAY OR TWO...SOME DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NOT FAR FROM THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 12.7N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 13.2N 117.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 13.9N 120.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 14.5N 122.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 15.0N 124.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 15.8N 127.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 16.5N 130.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 16.5N 134.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[WeatherGuesser]

We have Gil.

[WeatherGuesser]

And they're taking it to H1 by 72 hrs.

INIT 30/2100Z 12.7N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 13.2N 117.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 13.9N 120.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 14.5N 122.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 15.0N 124.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 15.8N 127.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 16.5N 130.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 16.5N 134.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

[Cyclenall]

Yeah, I was startled when I saw Gil on this topic. Lots of little Epac babies forming. Its one of the best looking TS's this year too, nice curl and wrap. Might have to watch for a rapid spin-up.

[Yellow Evan]

Yeah, I was startled when I saw Gil on this topic. Lots of little Epac babies forming. Its one of the best looking TS's this year too, nice curl and wrap. Might have to watch for a rapid spin-up.

Hernan 08/Eugene 11 redux?

[Kingarabian]

Not a complete pass but shows an organizing core.

[Caribwxgirl]

The EPac always seems to be so much more active than the ATL. This looks like it's going to be very interesting especially with the one behind it looking like its about to blow up too.

[Yellow Evan]

The EPac always seems to be so much more active than the ATL. This looks like it's going to be very interesting especially with the one behind it looking like its about to blow up too.

The EPAc peaks sooner than the ATL. It's at it's first peak right now, second is a month from now.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track up to 40kts.

EP, 07, 2013073100, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1170W, 40, 1002, TS

[cycloneye]

Building an eyewall.