WPAC: UTOR - Post-Tropical

[dexterlabio]

That was quick. From Low to High in less than a day.

[dexterlabio]

That was quick. From Low chance to a TCFA in less than a day...

[vrif]

That was quick. From Low chance to a TCFA in less than a day...

I was surprised when I saw the TCFA. From 96W to a TCFA, only 15hours.

WWJP25 RJTD 081200
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 12N 137E WNW 10 KT.

[dexterlabio]

well I was so surprised to see those disorganized cluster of thunderstorms spiral up and develop a solid core in just a few hours. Just imagine how this will consolidate further when DMAX kicks in...

[vrif]

OSCAT 0808 1449Z pass.

[vrif]

12Z EC run still showing the same westward track towards Hainan Island.

[vrif]

JTWC upgraded to 11W

['CaneFreak]

Gfs, navgem, cmc 12z runs take this very near Hong Kong in a week or so but it is all going to depend on the strength of the western flank of the STR

[vrif]

WTPQ20 RJTD 081800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081800UTC 12.3N 135.9E POOR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 091800UTC 13.1N 131.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[RL3AO]

Really taking on shape quickly. Think we might have one of those eye candy West Pacific storms in a few days...

[Hurricane_Luis]

JTWC upgraded to 11W

JTWC's website has not updated, TCFA still there.

[vrif]

JTWC upgraded to 11W

JTWC's website has not updated, TCFA still there.

Check NRL Tropical Cyclone Page or FNMOC Tropical Cyclone Page. They change the names faster than the JTWC page.

[Hurricane_Luis]

JTWC upgraded to 11W

JTWC's website has not updated, TCFA still there.

Check NRL Tropical Cyclone Page or FNMOC Tropical Cyclone Page. They change the names faster than the JTWC page.

Oh yes, cheers.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Depression 11W

[vrif]

WTPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081621Z AUG 13//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 12.3N 135.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 135.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 13.1N 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 13.9N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 14.6N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.2N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.8N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.2N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.2N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 135.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 313 NM
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
081800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND
092100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 081621Z AUG 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 081630).//
NNNN

['CaneFreak]

Yep...this one looks like it is going to be a doozy...

[RL3AO]

Hurricane Jeopardy!

120kt winds forecasted in first advisory.

"What is something you will never see in the Atlantic?"

['CaneFreak]

Yep...going over 30 c waters in a low shear environment. Something we dont see too often in the Atlantic Basin.

Hurricane Jeopardy!

120kt winds forecasted in first advisory.

"What is something you will never see in the Atlantic?"

[RL3AO]

So the ECMWF and GFS are only 500 miles apart and on opposite end of the intensity spectrum when it comes to final landfall in China. Sometimes its hard to tell that they are looking at the same atmosphere.

['CaneFreak]

Yeah, well like I said the large forecast uncertainty has to do with the 5 day predicted strength of the western flank of that STR. Moderate to high forecast certainty from MOST of the global models though that this will be a threat to Hong Kong. I don't buy the EURO's westward solution - especially since it has failed to initialize many disturbances on time and/or correctly this year.

So the ECMWF and GFS are only 500 miles apart and on opposite end of the intensity spectrum when it comes to final landfall in China. Sometimes its hard to tell that they are looking at the same atmosphere.