ATL: FERNAND - Renmants - Discussion

[SouthDadeFish]

18N 91W is almost over water already. That's about where I was looking also.

[Alyono]

18N 91W is almost over water already. That's about where I was looking also.

I'm at about 17.5N and 90.5W

[Alyono]

Given the position... it is probably LESS likely that this moves into the BOC.

However, if it does move into the BOC... it likely will develop. Nothing at all wrong with NHCs probs given this

[thetruesms]

Invest over land? I don't know where Bones is, but I did bump into this guy


But seriously, for how it looks now, I'd be interested to see what it could do over water . . . if it can manage it

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

AL, 95, 2013082418, , BEST, 0, 174N, 908W, 20, 1009, LO

[SouthDadeFish]

17.4N put its chances at development a lot lower than 18N...

[Alyono]

greater than 50/50 chance it never sees the water. Probably 65/35 that it remains onshore.

[tropicwatch]

A weather station at Nueva Villahermosa 17.99n 92.93w is reporting a pressure of 1004mb. With a weather station to its northeast with east winds, station to its west nw winds and stations to its south with west winds.

[weatherwindow]

17.4N put its chances at development a lot lower than 18N...

Good afternoon, SDF...Tend to agree with your assessment. If 17.4 is an accurate fix, IMO, the key to development is the exact vector of its motion...WNW covers a fair amount of territory...roughly 285deg to 300deg...In order to reach the target location mentioned in the recon schedule, 20.0N 95,5W, a motion of approximately 300deg would likely be needed. Even given that motion and the above location, it is spending precious little time over water and remains in close proximity to land thruout. Cyclogenesis is certainly possible but it will require a fairly rapid organization during its limited time over water....Im pulling for the underdog ...Grtz from KW, Rich

[CrazyC83]

A weather station at Nueva Villahermosa 17.99n 92.93w is reporting a pressure of 1004mb. With a weather station to its northeast with east winds, station to its west nw winds and stations to its south with west winds.

http://tropicwatch.info/nueva.jpg

With that setup, the center is likely around 18.0N 93.0W?

[CrazyC83]

Have any models been run yet?

[Extratropical94]

Have any models been run yet?

1800Z tropical models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 241823
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1823 UTC SAT AUG 24 2013
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952013) 20130824 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
        130824  1800   130825  0600   130825  1800   130826  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.4N  90.8W   18.3N  93.2W   19.2N  95.4W   19.8N  97.5W
BAMD    17.4N  90.8W   18.1N  92.8W   18.8N  94.8W   19.4N  96.8W
BAMM    17.4N  90.8W   18.2N  93.0W   18.8N  95.1W   19.5N  97.3W
LBAR    17.4N  90.8W   18.1N  92.8W   19.1N  95.3W   20.2N  98.1W
SHIP        20KTS          22KTS          27KTS          35KTS
DSHP        20KTS          24KTS          31KTS          29KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
        130826  1800   130827  1800   130828  1800   130829  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.5N  99.5W   21.6N 103.8W   23.3N 108.5W   24.9N 114.0W
BAMD    20.1N  99.0W   21.4N 103.4W   22.8N 107.8W   23.9N 112.6W
BAMM    20.1N  99.4W   21.4N 103.9W   22.8N 108.7W   24.1N 114.1W
LBAR    21.6N 101.1W   25.4N 106.3W   30.1N 109.8W   35.0N 112.3W
SHIP        46KTS          57KTS          65KTS          64KTS
DSHP        27KTS          27KTS          34KTS          33KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  17.4N LONCUR =  90.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =   8KT
LATM12 =  17.2N LONM12 =  89.0W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 =   8KT
LATM24 =  17.0N LONM24 =  87.7W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   90NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  120NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN


[jinftl]

Going to be close, but the center may make it out over water long enough to become a td or weak ts.

Have any models been run yet?

[Hammy]

While I think it is -highly- unlikely, wouldn't it be utterly ironic if this were to become the first hurricane?

[beoumont]

Going to be close, but the center may make it out over water long enough to become a td or weak ts.

http://img692.imageshack.us/img692/3456/9ln8.png

http://img196.imageshack.us/img196/6093/3q7a.png

Have any models been run yet?

I guess that 64 knts. goes with the LBar. That would be near the San Francisco Peaks just north of Flagstaff, AZ at 12,000 ft --- hence orographic lifting; a mini-Mt. Washington, 1938 hurricane effect.

[TexasF6]

Another USELESS storm.

[ROCK]

Another USELESS storm.

not a storm yet if at all...and it wont be useless if it does take another name off the list for some of us who had high numbers at the beginning of the year.

Gudos to the NAVGEM and NAM for seeing this whereas the GFS didnt see squat...someone joked the other day about the NAVGEM keeping this intact over land and low in behold it has done just that....nice job NAVGEM and NAM!!!

[jinftl]

Just a "uesless" invest as of now - something the NHC is interested in collecting data and/or running model guidance for it. Kinda their job to do that. Us following up on it and posting about it here is purely optional though.

Another USELESS storm.

[wxman57]

Obs across Mexico indicate any circulation is elevated above the surface, as was the case with the disturbance in the northern Gulf yesterday. If it's way down at 17.5N then it may have a hard time moving over the BoC.

[weatherwindow]

Good evening, all....our latest grasp for "some development, any development" , 95L, appears to gaining a bit of latitude. It will need all it can get. Following the visible loop over the past 3 hrs, the incipient center, under an MCS, appears to have migrated to ~18.2N 91.5W, an apparent motion of about 315deg or NW. I doubt that this is necessarily typical of the overall motion expected over the next 48hrs. However, if my observation is correct, further motion on this vector may give 95L a bit more of a glimpse of the GOM....Grtz from KW, Rich
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html