ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical

[ROCK]

if RECON would get in there it would probably be a minimal TS by now...guess they will wait until it gets into the BOC.....still think the LLC will set up shop further NE...just looking at SAT appearance.

[wxman57]

Hmm, model data just arrived with a header of "Disturbance TWO"

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1440 UTC MON JUN 17 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE TWO (AL022013) 20130617 1200 UTC

[supercane4867]

well.....

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al932013_al022013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201306171436
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[MGC]

93L does have a good satellite appearance...but with that east wind at Roatan it appears that if there is a circulation it is over land or along the coast of Honduras. So, I'd think nothing will develop till the BOC if then......MGC

[ROCK]

Hmm, model data just arrived with a header of "Disturbance TWO"

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1440 UTC MON JUN 17 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE TWO (AL022013) 20130617 1200 UTC

TD anyone?..

[NDG]

They had to upgrade it, fairly persistent TD force winds in the Gulf of Honduras heading towards Belize.

[CrazyC83]

I did NOT expect it to develop this fast. Could this spin up into a solid storm fast?

[HurrMark]

Two it is...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
1500 UTC MON JUN 17 2013

[NDG]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
1500 UTC MON JUN 17 2013

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 87.6W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 87.6W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 87.1W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.9N 89.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.0N 91.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.8N 93.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.3N 94.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.7N 96.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 20.0N 98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 87.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[CrazyC83]

How fast will it spin up in the next few hours? It could become a TS before Belize landfall...

[HurrMark]

I am surprised there are no TS warnings...granted, the thing is virtually on land, but there are still a few hours for this to spin up a bit to get to minimal TS strength. Not that unusual in this part of the basin.

[Hurricanehink]

I am surprised there are no TS warnings...granted, the thing is virtually on land, but there are still a few hours for this to spin up a bit to get to minimal TS strength. Not that unusual in this part of the basin.

Arthur 08 and Stan 05 being prime examples, which formed just off Belize and became TS's before landfall.

[Riptide]

Time to change the name of the thread title! We got a TD in our midst

[GCANE]

Peak circulation, according to Sat Analysis, looks to be mid level.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 8_VGRD.GIF

Since no PV anomalies at higher elevation, vorticity could remain intact over the Yucatan.

[NDG]

Now that it is official TD2, when is the thread's name going to be changed by the mods?
I guess Luis fell asleep

[BZSTORM]

Well my house is located at 16.34N 88.34W so landfall looks to be very close to us. Right now after some hard rain and small gusts its calming down to steady light rain. Gov of Belize just issued flood alert for Area of Toledo.
as follows: IMPORTANT UPDATE!
Please be informed that the Boom Creek Road in Toledo District is impassable to vehicular traffic as the road is under four (4) ft of water.

NEMO will continue to monitor the situation across the country as the rains continue. Another report will be issued as soon as there is an updated sitrep. Please continue to listen to your Local Radio Stations.

[wxman57]

Keep in mind that "landfall" is where the center moves ashore. There are not many heavy squalls near the center, they're displaced well north and east of the center. Expect some heavy rain in Belize for the next 24-36 hours. Possibly some TS wind gusts along the beaches.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The GFS nailed this storm 15 days out. Props to it.

My personal opinion is that this will become stronger than forecast once in the Bay of Campeche. Favorable wind shear, minimal dry air, and warm sea surface temperatures, coupled with the curvature of the coastline, should be more than enough to get the storm up to 50 mph or higher. Even poor Helene from last year made it to 45 mph very nearly on the coast and when dealing with wind shear and dry air.

[Alyono]

a 50 mph storm seems reasonable. If it has enough time in the BOC, once cannot rule out hurricane intensity

[BZSTORM]

I was here for Hurr Iris which cut right through Placencia but as we are peninsula wasnt classed as landfall wave broke right next to my house according to the chief metrologist for Belize who came to survey that info after storm had passed. As you say winds to NE quad and that means the cayes to North (San Pedro/Caye Caulker) will feel the brunt. Blessing is its moving fast which means rains wont be as bad as they were for Mitch who just sat of coast for days dropping heavy rain and causing major flooding. Not too worried with this one but sure didn't expect something coming here so soon in season. On side note sea temps have been incredibly high for this time of year my husband who is tour guide noted at start of this month that near Larks caye range which is approx 16.35N 88.11W off coast of Placencia sea was like a hot tub all way down to about 10 feet down, really bad for the corals health.
Well about to make run into village so going off line while we have lull in rain