ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[tolakram]

recon recorded a maximum FL wind of 70kts (~ 80.6mph) ?? really?! Is it going to be upgraded to hurricane status now?

Only surface winds matter.

[floridasun78]

[quote="meriland23"]"Maximum Flight Level Wind: 70kts (~ 80.6mph) which was observed 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles) to the ENE (60°) from the flight level center at 12:41:00Z"


....wow.... was it suppose to lower if 70kts at flight level?

[galaxy401]

SMFR found 53 knots at one point. Interesting.

[AtlanticWind]

Looks as pathetic as Ernesto did when it crossed the eastern Caribbean last year. Note all the outflow boundaries to the west and northwest now. Interesting that the 12Z GFS weakens it to a wave and keeps it south of Cuba.

Yeah it is looking bad. I made that comment earlier today. Granted it is not a wave but certainly looked better yesterday!

The last GFS run is definitely interesting and the 12Z NAVGEM shows something similar...could be a trend. We will wait for future runs.

Lets not downplay this storm . It is a threat to lives and property in the DR and Haiti.

[artist]

wide view -

[SouthFloridawx]

All storms in July within 125 miles of Hispaniola.

[Aric Dunn]

12z cmc the same.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091729
AF302 0203A CHANTAL HDOB 44 20130709
172100 1444N 06222W 9698 00359 //// +213 //// 158040 045 045 003 01
172130 1444N 06223W 9703 00355 0104 +224 +221 163037 040 037 002 00
172200 1443N 06224W 9700 00353 0100 +232 +218 168033 035 035 002 00
172230 1443N 06226W 9704 00353 0102 +233 +223 175027 031 033 002 00
172300 1442N 06227W 9696 00362 //// +225 //// 178013 023 028 001 05
172330 1442N 06229W 9702 00355 //// +218 //// 221004 010 022 002 01
172400 1442N 06231W 9703 00356 0105 +223 //// 301002 004 024 001 01
172430 1442N 06231W 9703 00356 0111 +225 +222 346006 007 022 001 00
172500 1442N 06234W 9707 00362 0117 +217 //// 357008 009 023 002 05
172530 1443N 06235W 9692 00378 //// +218 //// 021010 012 022 001 01
172600 1444N 06236W 9700 00369 0121 +222 +221 028014 015 023 002 01
172630 1445N 06237W 9703 00364 0113 +223 +220 037017 020 024 002 00
172700 1446N 06238W 9699 00358 0107 +222 +220 040019 021 027 001 01
172730 1447N 06239W 9700 00362 0110 +224 +218 046024 026 027 000 00
172800 1448N 06240W 9700 00366 0114 +220 +220 043025 026 027 001 01
172830 1449N 06241W 9699 00374 0124 +221 +220 048028 029 026 002 01
172900 1451N 06242W 9698 00383 0130 +220 +219 055031 031 028 001 01
172930 1452N 06244W 9699 00377 0125 +222 +218 060034 035 028 002 00
173000 1453N 06245W 9700 00378 0123 +224 +216 063035 036 028 002 00
173030 1454N 06246W 9699 00369 0121 +223 +216 065036 036 030 001 00
$$

[gatorcane]

Looks as pathetic as Ernesto did when it crossed the eastern Caribbean last year. Note all the outflow boundaries to the west and northwest now. Interesting that the 12Z GFS weakens it to a wave and keeps it south of Cuba.

Yeah it is looking bad. I made that comment earlier today. Granted it is not a wave but certainly looked better yesterday!

The last GFS run is definitely interesting and the 12Z NAVGEM shows something similar...could be a trend. We will wait for future runs.

Lets not downplay this storm . It is a threat to lives and property in the DR and Haiti.

I am not downplaying this storm at all. Even strong tropical waves can threaten lives and property in DR and Haiti due to the geography.

Just commenting it does not look as good as it did yesterday.

[meriland23]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[artist]

[meriland23]

Is it just me ..or does it look to be blowing up convection the last few frames?

[Florida1118]

...A LITTLE STRONGER CHANTAL MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

2:00 PM AST Tue Jul 9
Location: 14.8°N 62.7°W
Moving: WNW at 29 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

[bella_may]

And just when I thought there was no way this thing could get in the gulf.....

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
200 PM AST TUE JUL 09 2013

...A LITTLE STRONGER CHANTAL MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 62.7W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THAT ISLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARAHONA TO SAMANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* MARTINIQUE
* GUADELOUPE
* PUERTO RICO
* ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* TURKS AND CAICOS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST. CHANTAL IS
MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 29 MPH...46 KM/H...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHANTAL WILL MOVE
AWAY FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY...AND CONTINUE OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CHANTAL IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON WEDNESDAY.

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND OBSERVATIONS FROM MARTINIQUE
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65
MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A
SMALL AREA TO THE EAST THE CENTER. SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH
IS POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANTAL MOVES OVER HISPANIOLA.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH PUERTO RICO TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN HAITI BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. A STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE
WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE NORTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. 3 TO 6 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[tolakram]

Reminder,

how to read the data is in this great post over in the Tropical Analysis forum.

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=85603&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

[Jevo]

12z cmc the same.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Borderline Cat 1 into the most unlikely place.. Seems legit

I think David was the last GA hit back in 79

[tolakram]

Is it just me ..or does it look to be blowing up convection the last few frames?

I think you want to post this in the main thread, not the models thread.

Lets keep this thread to model output and direct commentary about the model runs please.

[wxwatcher4405]

I'm new here but just one question...is it possible for Chantal to keep moving WNW and completely miss the ridge and not get pulled to the N?

[wxman57]

Even though it does look pretty bad on satellite, we saw with Ernesto last year that once conditions improve, even a pathetic-looking storm can become a hurricane very quickly. Will be interesting to see all the 12Z guidance. With the GFS shifting well west, will the consensus models take the center into Florida?