ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[crownweather]

Interesting that UKMET spins up "a new storm" in the eastern Gulf on Thursday. Looking at the actual graphical guidance of the UKMET clearly shows that this is still Dorian:

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 24.1N 81.2W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 01.08.2013 24.1N 81.2W WEAK

00UTC 02.08.2013 25.1N 82.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.08.2013 26.6N 83.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.08.2013 27.4N 84.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

[GCANE]

Who said Dorian is dead?

Shear is inducing a ton of overshooting tops not to mention a rapidly developing UL outflow.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html


Watching to see what happens when it gets into the lower shear environment.

[GCANE]

Pretty darn good rain rate.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... W.59pc.jpg

Could kick some of the shear out of the way.

This could effectively raise the tropopause height near the LLC and move the anti-cyclone back in.

[cycloneye]

Up to 20%

Recon going this afternoon!

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...
IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS A
FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...PASSING NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO TODAY AND MONDAY...AND MOVING OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY EARLY TUESDAY. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY.

[ninel conde]

if it can hold on things look more favorable as it slows and turns NW.

[jlauderdal]

Up to 20%

Recon going this afternoon!

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...
IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS A
FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...PASSING NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO TODAY AND MONDAY...AND MOVING OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY EARLY TUESDAY. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY.

when is the squadron leaving?

[cycloneye]

Is now 91L.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al042013_al912013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307281201
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

[cycloneye]

Mission for today departs at noon EDT.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=115297&p=2324238#p2324238

[NDG]

I think the UL trough has really helped to refire the remnants of Dorian with UL divergence.
It still has a nice vorticity. The problem will be how it interacts with the UL low as it catched up to it, will the UL trough weaken like the Euro was showing a few days ago, I guess that is the big question.
This morning's 06z GFS shows a run similar to the Euro of the vorticity reaching eastern FL and then getting picked up by the next trough and as it gets back over the Gulf Stream for it start really developing as it passes to east the Carolinas and out to sea.

[GCANE]

This is going to be a battle with the ULL at 23N 70W.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8wvir.GIF

Key is 200mb PV and if it breaks down ahead of Dorian.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8vor1.GIF

Hot towers always do the trick.

[NDG]

Is now 91L.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al042013_al912013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307281201
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

Good, I guess we will 12z models coming out soon, it will be interesting what SHIPS shows for as far as shear over the system for the next few days.

[GCANE]

Good looking cell developing on the microwave loop

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html

[GCANE]

AMSU temp-profile analysis at 0901Z today still showing a decent warm core.

http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu/archive/2013/ ... _xsect.gif

http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu/archive/2013/ ... 01_ch5.gif

[GCANE]

This has got to be one of the diciest forecast / potential scenarios for a TC I have seen in the many years I have been watching this stuff.

[tailgater]

Where did the floater go?

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track for 91L.

AL, 91, 2013072812, , BEST, 0, 193N, 595W, 30, 1012, WV

[NDG]

I think that if the recon later this afternoon is able to close a circulation it will most probably be upgraded back to at least a TD.
Buoy just to the north of the vorticity is reporting 10 foot waves and a few hours ago reported substained TD force winds.

07 28 3:50 am E 27.2 33.0

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... ion=41044d

[NDG]

Wow, looking at the vis satellite loop this morning I am almost concluded that it has closed a circulation once again, but too early for me to 100% sure with only 7 vis pixs to loop.

[SCUBAdude]

It looks better to me today than yesterday on visible.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[GCANE]

One good thing about NAM, it does an awesome job modelling instability.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... GROUND.png

Dorian looks like it'll be in the middle of a lot of juicy air in 60hrs.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... GROUND.png

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... URFACE.png

UL conditions don't look too bad either.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... 250_MB.png

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... 500_MB.png