ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

Is that a rotation off the PR RADAR I see to the NE - probably mid-level but interesting.

The center of Dorian's remnants is over 300 miles away from the radar. That puts the center of the beam at around 65,000 ft. and the bottom of the beam around 55,000 ft.

[gatorcane]

I'm not seeing any rotation at the surface. Plotted some ships around Dorian and noted that the pressure is quite high around Dorian - 1017 to 1018mb, and 1016mb in the eastern Caribbean. Much higher than normal. Redevelopment chances still look to be low.

I annoted the SSD vis floater with the red arrows to show where I see the rotation -- could just be a temporary mid-level rotation that dissipates in a few hours though. Convection should (hopefully) diminish alot by this afternoon (DMIN).

Here is the loop again:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[NDG]

Unlike yesterday about this time, convection keeps refiring near the suspected COC.

[ScottNAtlanta]

There is a very fine line between destructive shear and beneficial ventilation. I think we are seeing the later currently. There is good outflow developing in most every direction. Also, dont see much die off of the thunderstorms approaching the DMIN as has been the case in the past. Remember, the atmosphere is fluid. Shear in a specific location might not be there 12 hours from now

[Blown Away]

06z GFS...Generally carries 91L as low to SFL...Past runs burried the low in Cuba...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

[Blown Away]

There is a very fine line between destructive shear and beneficial ventilation. I think we are seeing the later currently. There is good outflow developing in most every direction. Also, dont see much die off of the thunderstorms approaching the DMIN as has been the case in the past. Remember, the atmosphere is fluid. Shear in a specific location might not be there 12 hours from now

ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL912013 07/28/13 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
SHEAR (KT) 12 10 11 14 13 9 14 9 16 6 14 7 11

If 12z is right, shear should not be the issue...

[cycloneye]

This is why is good to upload images to save them. Here is how it looked on Saturday Morning at 3:15 AM UTC.

[ScottNAtlanta]

This looks like its worthy of some attention (note intensity)

[Evil Jeremy]

I honestly don't see much rotation. The inflow that developed this morning seems to be tapering off, and I don't expect recon to find anything today.

[ROCK]

Wait ...I thought this guy was dead...Bomes and all!!

If the NAM pulls this out of its butt I will never again make fun of it...

[NDG]

I honestly don't see much rotation. The inflow that developed this morning seems to be tapering off, and I don't expect recon to find anything today.

I still see a nice inflow on HR sat loop, even more than earlier this morning.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[AtlanticWind]

If there is a closed circulation under that convection I do not see any reason this can not intensify to a strong tropical storm in the Bahamas .

[SFLcane]

Can use PR ssd images until they put floater up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr.html

[wxsouth]

Not positive that there is a closed circulation, but it's not out of the question. What I do see is a very sharp trough axis extending down to at least Guadaloupe. On satellite, you can see that the low clouds around Guadaloupe are nearly stationary. The winds at Barbuda are interesting as well, although these could be due to local affects.

None of this may matter however, if the strong southerly upper winds just ahead of the system don't diminish (and quickly).

[NDG]

This station in Barbuda has now reported a westerly wind component for nearly 30 minutes now, off and on over an hour.

07 28 10:54 am WSW 6.0 8.0 - - - - 30.01 - 79.9 - - - - -
07 28 10:48 am WSW 6.0 8.9 - - - - 30.01 - 79.5 - - - - -
07 28 10:42 am SW 8.0 8.9 - - - - 30.02 - 78.3 - - - - -
07 28 10:36 am WSW 7.0 9.9 - - - - 30.02 - 78.6 - - - - -
07 28 10:30 am SSW 11.1 12.0 - - - - 30.02 - 78.3 - - - - -
07 28 10:24 am SSW 11.1 15.9 - - - - 30.02 - 78.6

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=bara9

[funster]

There is floater available, under 91L: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

[Blown Away]

[cycloneye]

Can use PR ssd images until they put floater up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/rb.jpg

Puerto Rico Floater.





http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/sju.html

[NDG]

I place the X where I suspect an LLC is developing, I can clearly see the inflow at the low levels on the hr satellite loop.

[ScottNAtlanta]

This is not implying anything...but saw this elsewhere and found it interesting looking at the comparison of conditions (not same time of year either)