ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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pgoss11
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#2121 Postby pgoss11 » Sun Jul 28, 2013 9:41 am

:uarrow: That is an interesting analogy but definitely a long shot for that to happen again. I am just amazed at Dorian's persistence. He is definitely a fighter. The southerly shear he will be encountering later today will probably kill him off.
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#2122 Postby NDG » Sun Jul 28, 2013 9:41 am

Westerly winds continue to be reported in Barbuda.

Conditions at BARA9 as of
(11:00 am ADT)
1400 GMT on 07/28/2013: Unit of Measure: English Metric

Wind Direction (WDIR): WSW ( 240 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 6.0 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 7.0 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.01 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.01 in ( Rising )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.4 °F
Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 5.8 kts
Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 7.8 kts
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#2123 Postby AtlanticWind » Sun Jul 28, 2013 9:47 am

The system has really expanded in size the last 24 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2124 Postby SFLcane » Sun Jul 28, 2013 9:48 am

Image
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Re:

#2125 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sun Jul 28, 2013 9:49 am

pgoss11 wrote::uarrow: That is an interesting analogy but definitely a long shot for that to happen again. I am just amazed at Dorian's persistence. He is definitely a fighter. The southerly shear he will be encountering later today will probably kill him off.


The ULL seems to be moving in tandem with 91L...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2126 Postby ROCK » Sun Jul 28, 2013 9:51 am

NAVGEM doesnt see nada....at 06Z

CMC 0Z from last night but a TW moving over Cuba...
Last edited by ROCK on Sun Jul 28, 2013 10:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#2127 Postby pgoss11 » Sun Jul 28, 2013 9:52 am

ScottNAtlanta wrote:
pgoss11 wrote::uarrow: That is an interesting analogy but definitely a long shot for that to happen again. I am just amazed at Dorian's persistence. He is definitely a fighter. The southerly shear he will be encountering later today will probably kill him off.


The ULL seems to be moving in tandem with 91L...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

It seems to be doing that, but I'm not so sure that 91L won't actually "catch up" to that ULL. Wish I knew how fast 91L is traveling. Probably slowed a little from yesterday's speed.
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Re:

#2128 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Jul 28, 2013 9:52 am

AtlanticWind wrote:If there is a closed circulation under that convection I do not see any reason this can not intensify to a strong tropical storm in the Bahamas .

it wont do anything in the bahamas if i go out and start my generator in a couple of days because that is the kiss of death for anything approaching this area ever since i bought a generator after wilma...key part being after wilma which is when i could have used it and haven't sniffed a reason to use it since then.. :roll:

i start it every couple of months and especially when something is approaching, scares the neighbors and keeps the storms away..is this our year?
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#2129 Postby NDG » Sun Jul 28, 2013 9:55 am

Westerly winds in Barbuda now for over an hour, should I continue making my point?

07 28 11:24 am W 5.1 6.0 - - - - 30.01 - 81.7 - - - - -
07 28 11:18 am W 6.0 7.0 - - - - 30.01 - 80.6 - - - - -
07 28 11:12 am W 6.0 7.0 - - - - 30.01 - 81.0 - - - - -
07 28 11:06 am W 7.0 8.0 - - - - 30.01 - 79.9 - - - - -
07 28 11:00 am WSW 6.0 7.0 - - - - 30.01 +0.01 80.4 - - - - -
07 28 10:54 am WSW 6.0 8.0 - - - - 30.01 - 79.9 - - - - -
07 28 10:48 am WSW 6.0 8.9 - - - - 30.01 - 79.5 - - - - -
07 28 10:42 am SW 8.0 8.9 - - - - 30.02 - 78.3 - - - - -
07 28 10:36 am WSW 7.0 9.9 - - - - 30.02 - 78.6 - - - - -
07 28 10:30 am SSW 11.1 12.0 - - - - 30.02 - 78.3 - - - - -
07 28 10:24 am SSW 11.1 15.9 - - - - 30.02 - 78.6


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=bara9
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Re: Re:

#2130 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Jul 28, 2013 9:57 am

pgoss11 wrote:
ScottNAtlanta wrote:
pgoss11 wrote::uarrow: That is an interesting analogy but definitely a long shot for that to happen again. I am just amazed at Dorian's persistence. He is definitely a fighter. The southerly shear he will be encountering later today will probably kill him off.


The ULL seems to be moving in tandem with 91L...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

It seems to be doing that, but I'm not so sure that 91L won't actually "catch up" to that ULL. Wish I knew how fast 91L is traveling. Probably slowed a little from yesterday's speed.


well the squadron is being dispatched later today so that should clear up some of this angst about what is actually happening instead of conjecture based on infrared( :roll: :roll: )..if this thing actually regains ts status it will go down as one of the biggest comebacks since marion barry being elected again :flag:
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Re:

#2131 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Jul 28, 2013 9:58 am

NDG wrote:Westerly winds in Barbuda now for over an hour, should I continue making my point?

07 28 11:24 am W 5.1 6.0 - - - - 30.01 - 81.7 - - - - -
07 28 11:18 am W 6.0 7.0 - - - - 30.01 - 80.6 - - - - -
07 28 11:12 am W 6.0 7.0 - - - - 30.01 - 81.0 - - - - -
07 28 11:06 am W 7.0 8.0 - - - - 30.01 - 79.9 - - - - -
07 28 11:00 am WSW 6.0 7.0 - - - - 30.01 +0.01 80.4 - - - - -
07 28 10:54 am WSW 6.0 8.0 - - - - 30.01 - 79.9 - - - - -
07 28 10:48 am WSW 6.0 8.9 - - - - 30.01 - 79.5 - - - - -
07 28 10:42 am SW 8.0 8.9 - - - - 30.02 - 78.3 - - - - -
07 28 10:36 am WSW 7.0 9.9 - - - - 30.02 - 78.6 - - - - -
07 28 10:30 am SSW 11.1 12.0 - - - - 30.02 - 78.3 - - - - -
07 28 10:24 am SSW 11.1 15.9 - - - - 30.02 - 78.6


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=bara9


yes keep posting them but you know that could be a land breeze setting up
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Re:

#2132 Postby pgoss11 » Sun Jul 28, 2013 9:59 am

NDG wrote:Westerly winds in Barbuda now for over an hour, should I continue making my point?

07 28 11:24 am W 5.1 6.0 - - - - 30.01 - 81.7 - - - - -
07 28 11:18 am W 6.0 7.0 - - - - 30.01 - 80.6 - - - - -
07 28 11:12 am W 6.0 7.0 - - - - 30.01 - 81.0 - - - - -
07 28 11:06 am W 7.0 8.0 - - - - 30.01 - 79.9 - - - - -
07 28 11:00 am WSW 6.0 7.0 - - - - 30.01 +0.01 80.4 - - - - -
07 28 10:54 am WSW 6.0 8.0 - - - - 30.01 - 79.9 - - - - -
07 28 10:48 am WSW 6.0 8.9 - - - - 30.01 - 79.5 - - - - -
07 28 10:42 am SW 8.0 8.9 - - - - 30.02 - 78.3 - - - - -
07 28 10:36 am WSW 7.0 9.9 - - - - 30.02 - 78.6 - - - - -
07 28 10:30 am SSW 11.1 12.0 - - - - 30.02 - 78.3 - - - - -
07 28 10:24 am SSW 11.1 15.9 - - - - 30.02 - 78.6


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=bara9


Point well taken :cheesy:
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Re:

#2133 Postby ROCK » Sun Jul 28, 2013 9:59 am

NDG wrote:Westerly winds in Barbuda now for over an hour, should I continue making my point?

07 28 11:24 am W 5.1 6.0 - - - - 30.01 - 81.7 - - - - -
07 28 11:18 am W 6.0 7.0 - - - - 30.01 - 80.6 - - - - -
07 28 11:12 am W 6.0 7.0 - - - - 30.01 - 81.0 - - - - -
07 28 11:06 am W 7.0 8.0 - - - - 30.01 - 79.9 - - - - -
07 28 11:00 am WSW 6.0 7.0 - - - - 30.01 +0.01 80.4 - - - - -
07 28 10:54 am WSW 6.0 8.0 - - - - 30.01 - 79.9 - - - - -
07 28 10:48 am WSW 6.0 8.9 - - - - 30.01 - 79.5 - - - - -
07 28 10:42 am SW 8.0 8.9 - - - - 30.02 - 78.3 - - - - -
07 28 10:36 am WSW 7.0 9.9 - - - - 30.02 - 78.6 - - - - -
07 28 10:30 am SSW 11.1 12.0 - - - - 30.02 - 78.3 - - - - -
07 28 10:24 am SSW 11.1 15.9 - - - - 30.02 - 78.6


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=bara9



no please stop...I think some of us get the point. :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#2134 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sun Jul 28, 2013 10:01 am

Dorian seems more likely.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#2135 Postby Canelaw99 » Sun Jul 28, 2013 10:02 am

And this is why it pays to keep an eye on the tropics until a storm is definitely dissipated/deceased and past your area....

I must say this puppy is looking pretty decent this morning, especially compared to yesterday. I'm glad recon is going out to investigate, so we can at least get some real observational data.

Jlaud - I'm with you. We've had a generator since 2008, and I'm not complaining, but we haven't had to put it in use as of yet. I'd like that trend to continue :)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#2136 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sun Jul 28, 2013 10:06 am

Canelaw99 wrote:And this is why it pays to keep an eye on the tropics until a storm is definitely dissipated/deceased and past your area....

I must say this puppy is looking pretty decent this morning, especially compared to yesterday. I'm glad recon is going out to investigate, so we can at least get some real observational data.

Jlaud - I'm with you. We've had a generator since 2008, and I'm not complaining, but we haven't had to put it in use as of yet. I'd like that trend to continue :)


I got a generator after our last big ice storm in Atlanta many years ago...of course we haven't had one since (the unseen power of the generator). I'd have no clue how to hook it up if I did need it anyway
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Re: Re:

#2137 Postby NDG » Sun Jul 28, 2013 10:08 am

jlauderdal wrote:
NDG wrote:Westerly winds in Barbuda now for over an hour, should I continue making my point?

07 28 11:24 am W 5.1 6.0 - - - - 30.01 - 81.7 - - - - -
07 28 11:18 am W 6.0 7.0 - - - - 30.01 - 80.6 - - - - -
07 28 11:12 am W 6.0 7.0 - - - - 30.01 - 81.0 - - - - -
07 28 11:06 am W 7.0 8.0 - - - - 30.01 - 79.9 - - - - -
07 28 11:00 am WSW 6.0 7.0 - - - - 30.01 +0.01 80.4 - - - - -
07 28 10:54 am WSW 6.0 8.0 - - - - 30.01 - 79.9 - - - - -
07 28 10:48 am WSW 6.0 8.9 - - - - 30.01 - 79.5 - - - - -
07 28 10:42 am SW 8.0 8.9 - - - - 30.02 - 78.3 - - - - -
07 28 10:36 am WSW 7.0 9.9 - - - - 30.02 - 78.6 - - - - -
07 28 10:30 am SSW 11.1 12.0 - - - - 30.02 - 78.3 - - - - -
07 28 10:24 am SSW 11.1 15.9 - - - - 30.02 - 78.6


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=bara9


yes keep posting them but you know that could be a land breeze setting up



Barbuda is a very small mostly flat Island, doubt that there is much of a land effect.
BTW, this time yesterday it was reporting nothing but easterly and southeasterly winds all morning long and into the afternoon, you can clearly see the winds starting to switch during the night into the morning as the system was approaching.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#2138 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sun Jul 28, 2013 10:09 am

Will recon be flying out of St Croix on the 12noon mission or from somewhere else?
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Re: Re:

#2139 Postby NDG » Sun Jul 28, 2013 10:10 am

ROCK wrote:
NDG wrote:Westerly winds in Barbuda now for over an hour, should I continue making my point?

07 28 11:24 am W 5.1 6.0 - - - - 30.01 - 81.7 - - - - -
07 28 11:18 am W 6.0 7.0 - - - - 30.01 - 80.6 - - - - -
07 28 11:12 am W 6.0 7.0 - - - - 30.01 - 81.0 - - - - -
07 28 11:06 am W 7.0 8.0 - - - - 30.01 - 79.9 - - - - -
07 28 11:00 am WSW 6.0 7.0 - - - - 30.01 +0.01 80.4 - - - - -
07 28 10:54 am WSW 6.0 8.0 - - - - 30.01 - 79.9 - - - - -
07 28 10:48 am WSW 6.0 8.9 - - - - 30.01 - 79.5 - - - - -
07 28 10:42 am SW 8.0 8.9 - - - - 30.02 - 78.3 - - - - -
07 28 10:36 am WSW 7.0 9.9 - - - - 30.02 - 78.6 - - - - -
07 28 10:30 am SSW 11.1 12.0 - - - - 30.02 - 78.3 - - - - -
07 28 10:24 am SSW 11.1 15.9 - - - - 30.02 - 78.6


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=bara9



no please stop...I think some of us get the point. :lol:



Nah, how about at least one more :D

Conditions at BARA9 as of
(11:30 am ADT)
1430 GMT on 07/28/2013: Unit of Measure: English Metric

Wind Direction (WDIR): W ( 260 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 4.1 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 5.1 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.01 in
Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.0 °F
Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 3.9 kts
Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 5.8 kts
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#2140 Postby tailgater » Sun Jul 28, 2013 10:12 am

Surf's up
11.5 ft seas that getting a little scary.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41044
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