ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical

[Hurricane Andrew]

Whoa! Unexpected for moi!

[Aric Dunn]

Interesting.. rarely they ever upgrade like that..

[Dean4Storms]

Anyone seen obs that showed we definitely have a closed surface circulation? If not, is the NHC guessing?

[Aric Dunn]

Anyone seen obs that showed we definitely have a closed surface circulation? If not, is the NHC guessing?

not many. problem also is there area lot of mountains and that makes it hard to get a clear reading.

[JonathanBelles]

Graphic I made a little bit ago for social media

[cycloneye]

I was here for Hurr Iris which cut right through Placencia but as we are peninsula wasnt classed as landfall wave broke right next to my house according to the chief metrologist for Belize who came to survey that info after storm had passed. As you say winds to NE quad and that means the cayes to North (San Pedro/Caye Caulker) will feel the brunt. Blessing is its moving fast which means rains wont be as bad as they were for Mitch who just sat of coast for days dropping heavy rain and causing major flooding. Not too worried with this one but sure didn't expect something coming here so soon in season. On side note sea temps have been incredibly high for this time of year my husband who is tour guide noted at start of this month that near Larks caye range which is approx 16.35N 88.11W off coast of Placencia sea was like a hot tub all way down to about 10 feet down, really bad for the corals health.
Well about to make run into village so going off line while we have lull in rain

Hi BZSTORM. Here is the web cam from your area.



http://cayecaulkerweather.com/caye-caul ... r-web-cam/

[cycloneye]

No recon today but there will be a few missions at Bay of Campeche.

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1055 AM EDT MON 17 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z JUNE 2013
         TCPOD NUMBER.....13-017

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA -- BAY OF CAMPECHE
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70      FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
       A. 18/2000Z                A. 19/1200Z
       B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST      B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
       C. 18/1645Z                C. 19/0800Z
       D. 19.0N 92.5W             D. 19.5N 94.5W
       E. 18/1900 TO 18/2300Z     E. 19/1100Z TO 19/1500Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT        F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: 12-HRLY FIXES
       IF SYSTEM IS STILL A THREAT.
    3. REMARKS: INVEST IN THE BAY OF HONDURAS FOR
       17/2000Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 17/1230Z.


[cycloneye]

Now that it is official TD2, when is the thread's name going to be changed by the mods?
I guess Luis fell asleep

There were no mods at the time of advisory. I was in a medical appointment.

[cycloneye]

The size, structure and general weak intensity of TD2 makes me think it won't weaken too much over the Yucatan where there are no big mountain chains when it makes landfall later today. The structure is a classic June tropical depression.

[MGC]

Run to Wal Mart and get back to a TD.....thought there was only a 40% chance? Oh well, never try to out guess Mother Nature.....MGC

[thetruesms]

I can't help but feel like this happened because I pooh-pooh'd it until the Bay of Campeche in my morning briefing At least I can console myself with the fact that this thread seems to indicate I wasn't alone.

[Dean4Storms]

Graphic I made a little bit ago for social media.

Strange how they'll use those standards way down there but not with a system out in the middle of the Gulf with much deeper convection and spiraling low level bands and buoys galore showing a broad surface circulation until a Recon gets there and finds a 45mph TS just a couple weeks ago!

[JonathanBelles]

Graphic I made a little bit ago for social media.

Strange how they'll use those standards way down there but not with a system out in the middle of the Gulf with much deeper convection and spiraling low level bands and buoys galore showing a broad surface circulation until a Recon gets there and finds a 45mph TS just a couple weeks ago!

Those standards are opinions on my part. I have not talked to the forecasters in Miami, but retrospectively looking at the data between 9-11am this morning, those 'standards' are what I believe led to their decision.

[Sanibel]

This season could have favorable conditions.

[djones65]

The NHC's mission is to help mitigate damage and personal injury from tropical cyclones. In this case, TD 02L is nearing landfall in Belize. Thus, the decision to upgrade is appropriate in my opinion. However, a depression in the middle Gulf 24 hours or more away from landfall is not an immediate threat and can await confirmation before upgrading. At least in my opinion that is true.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Center of circulation seems to be lifting more north than it was earlier...likely a byproduct of the height falls across and to the north of the region (weakening high pressure). Right on NHC's track so far.

[cycloneye]

Radar from Belize shows the circulation well.

[floridasun78]

looking way been a bit busy in june when we get into late july and aug we could see one system per week and aug maybe three system per week if mjo in our area that could cause area of nw carribbean and by islands of leedwards to be very busy

[Macrocane]

Rainfall expected in northern Central America in the next 48 and 72 hours (according to HWRF):

[Nimbus]

A second named storm in June if the GFS is correct. Not necessarily a harbinger of a busy season but still enough to keep us watching. Hope it doesn't stall too long in the BOC..