CPAC: FLOSSIE - Post-Tropical

[CrazyC83]

Do any members here live in Hawaii?

That strengthening was a surprise given the cooler waters. No models forecast it to become a hurricane though...

[galaxy401]

Well this is a surprise. Hope it starts to weaken again soon. I'm surprised there is no recon for this...

[Yellow Evan]

Flossie does not look all that great on satellite, which is good for Hawaii.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CrazyC83]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Here is my impact estimate for Hawaii at this time (primary threat is freshwater flooding):

Orange - Significant impact. Major freshwater flooding possible, especially in valleys. Minor to moderate wind damage possible - some trees down and power outages. Sustained winds 30 to 40 mph and gusts 50 to 65 mph, highest in vulnerable areas such as high terrain locations (possibly hurricane force on the highest peaks) and windward-facing coastal locations in an onshore flow.

Yellow - Modest impact. Scattered freshwater flooding possible in saturated valleys. Isolated wind damage possible with some trees and branches down and a few power outages. Sustained winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts 35 to 55 mph, highest in vulnerable areas such as high terrain locations and windward-facing coastal locations in an onshore flow.

[Alyono]

Flossie does not look all that great on satellite, which is good for Hawaii.

Huh? Thing looks close to hurricane intensity

[Kingarabian]

Do any members here live in Hawaii?

That strengthening was a surprise given the cooler waters. No models forecast it to become a hurricane though...

Right here!!!

[Yellow Evan]

Flossie does not look all that great on satellite, which is good for Hawaii.

Huh? Thing looks close to hurricane intensity

Well, the cloud tops are not that cold.

[supercane4867]

Early TRMM this mornig shows an eyewall

[Blown Away]

12z...

[Kingarabian]

WTPA41 PHFO 281453
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062013
500 AM HST SUN JUL 28 2013

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT FLOSSIE GRADUALLY INTENSIFIED
OVERNIGHT...BUT THAT TREND APPEARS TO HAVE ABATED SOMEWHAT IN THE
LAST HOUR OR TWO...WITH THE CENTER ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. A TRMM PASS AT 0733Z SHOWED THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AN EYE FEATURE...AND HINTS OF THAT FEATURE WERE APPARENT IN
EARLIER INFRARED GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES. A 0630Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWED WINDS AS HIGH AS 45 KT IN THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE...BUT GIVEN
THE APPARENT IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT...AND THE
TENDENCY FOR ASCAT TO UNDERESTIMATE WIND SPEEDS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 55 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
TOWARD 275 DEGREES AT 17 KT.

ALTHOUGH SSTS WARM SLIGHTLY ALONG FLOSSIE/S PROJECTED PATH...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FLOSSIE EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF INCREASINGLY DRY
AIR ALOFT...DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY
STATIONARY RIDGE ALOFT JUST WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AS
FLOSSIE MOVES WEST...THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO IMPART INCREASING
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...AND INTENSITY MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A GRADUAL WEAKENING...BUT AT A SLOWER RATE THAN
EARLIER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS THUS BEEN NUDGED UPWARD THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST...AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FLOSSIE/S
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AS IT DISTANCES ITSELF
FROM THE SURFACE RIDGE FAR TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND BEGINS TO
FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH NEARLY ALL
THE MODELS SHOWING FLOSSIE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI MONDAY
MORNING...PASSING SOUTH OF OAHU MONDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST TRACK
FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES NEAR
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 19.8N 146.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 20.1N 149.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 20.2N 152.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 20.3N 156.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 20.5N 159.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 20.9N 166.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 21.2N 173.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD

[Kingarabian]

My eyes could be deceiving me since it's 5 AM, but is that a pinhole eye?

[Yellow Evan]

My eyes could be deceiving me since it's 5 AM, but is that a pinhole eye?

A hint of one sorta.

[Kingarabian]

It's beyond pathetic that we are not getting any Recon.

[WeatherGuesser]

Expected to be TS at landfall? Or drop to TD by then?

[Yellow Evan]

It's beyond pathetic that we are not getting any Recon.

I agree, IIRC the CPHC could request it but has not apparently. They are really downplaying this storm. I think if there was recon, we'd find the Flossie is a hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

Expected to be TS at landfall? Or drop to TD by then?

It's a lock for TS status at landfall IMO.

[Senobia]

Do any members here live in Hawaii?

That strengthening was a surprise given the cooler waters. No models forecast it to become a hurricane though...

My daughter does. Even tho she's been in hurricanes here in Texas, this will be her first storm while living there. She's not scared, but I am.

She lives on Oahu in Kaneohe, if anyone has any thoughts on what that area can expect.

[WeatherGuesser]

^^ Depends on which side of the island. Northwest coast may not be affected as much as the southeast coast.

Edit: OK, I see it now. Kaneohe needs to be paying close attention.

[Kingarabian]

Do any members here live in Hawaii?

That strengthening was a surprise given the cooler waters. No models forecast it to become a hurricane though...

My daughter does. Even tho she's been in hurricanes here in Texas, this will be her first storm while living there. She's not scared, but I am.

She lives on Oahu in Kaneohe, if anyone has any thoughts on what that area can expect.

Should get drenched. Kaneohe/Kailua is a pretty wet area here in Oahu.

[Kingarabian]