ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 281724
AF301 0104A DORIAN HDOB 09 20130728
171500 2104N 06305W 9770 00351 0169 +237 +209 080031 033 /// /// 03
171530 2106N 06304W 9766 00355 0169 +240 +209 080032 033 /// /// 03
171600 2107N 06303W 9772 00350 0169 +238 +208 079028 031 /// /// 03
171630 2108N 06302W 9771 00351 0170 +235 +212 080028 029 /// /// 03
171700 2109N 06300W 9771 00352 0171 +232 +219 077026 027 /// /// 03
171730 2110N 06259W 9767 00355 0171 +234 +217 077027 029 /// /// 03
171800 2111N 06257W 9772 00351 0171 +235 +217 073028 028 /// /// 03
171830 2111N 06256W 9771 00352 0171 +235 +217 073029 029 /// /// 03
171900 2112N 06254W 9769 00354 0171 +234 +219 076027 028 /// /// 03
171930 2113N 06253W 9772 00351 0170 +235 +219 073026 027 /// /// 03
172000 2114N 06251W 9769 00353 0170 +235 +219 074026 027 /// /// 03
172030 2115N 06250W 9771 00351 0170 +235 +222 075023 026 /// /// 03
172100 2115N 06248W 9771 00351 0170 +235 +222 075024 024 029 000 03
172130 2115N 06247W 9770 00352 0169 +235 +223 073023 024 031 001 00
172200 2115N 06245W 9771 00351 0169 +236 +223 074023 024 032 000 00
172230 2116N 06243W 9772 00350 0169 +238 +219 076024 024 030 000 03
172300 2116N 06241W 9770 00352 0168 +239 +216 079022 023 030 001 03
172330 2116N 06240W 9770 00352 0169 +239 +215 080022 023 031 000 00
172400 2116N 06238W 9770 00350 0169 +235 +220 079022 023 031 001 03
172430 2116N 06236W 9768 00354 0169 +235 +222 075022 023 032 001 03
$$
;

At operational level now...

[HURAKAN]

[Dave]

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 17:23Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dorian (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 04

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Sunday, 17:22Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 21.3N 62.7W
Location: 296 miles (477 km) to the NE (48°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 310 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 70° at 23 knots (From the ENE at ~ 26.4 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 24°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 24°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Overcast / Undercast
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1017 mb (extrapolated)

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 60° at 30 knots (From the ENE at ~ 34.5 mph)

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 30 knots (~ 34.5mph)

[NDG]

Recon finding TD force winds so far in the NW quadrant.

[HURAKAN]

[floridasun78]

wow dorian was buried last night by few here dorian came out say i not dead you sucker i back

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 281734
AF301 0104A DORIAN HDOB 10 20130728
172500 2116N 06234W 9770 00350 0168 +235 +221 077023 024 031 000 00
172530 2116N 06233W 9769 00351 0168 +235 +222 075023 024 031 000 00
172600 2116N 06231W 9771 00351 0168 +235 +224 075023 024 031 001 03
172630 2116N 06229W 9775 00345 0167 +235 +223 075024 025 032 000 03
172700 2117N 06228W 9769 00350 0167 +235 +224 075024 025 033 000 00
172730 2117N 06226W 9770 00349 0167 +235 +224 076023 025 032 000 03
172800 2117N 06224W 9773 00347 0167 +236 +224 078024 024 032 001 03
172830 2117N 06222W 9769 00351 0167 +236 +224 079023 025 032 001 03
172900 2117N 06221W 9772 00349 0167 +240 +214 088025 026 034 000 00
172930 2117N 06219W 9770 00350 0167 +238 +214 088024 025 034 000 03
173000 2117N 06217W 9770 00350 0167 +240 +209 088025 026 033 000 03
173030 2117N 06216W 9772 00348 0167 +237 +212 089025 026 033 000 03
173100 2117N 06214W 9772 00349 0168 +239 +210 091026 026 033 000 00
173130 2118N 06212W 9771 00350 0168 +236 +214 088027 027 033 000 00
173200 2118N 06210W 9768 00351 0168 +236 +215 086027 028 033 000 00
173230 2118N 06209W 9770 00352 0168 +235 +219 085024 026 033 000 03
173300 2118N 06207W 9771 00350 0168 +235 +219 087025 026 034 001 03
173330 2118N 06205W 9770 00352 0168 +235 +218 085024 025 033 000 03
173400 2118N 06204W 9771 00350 0168 +235 +218 083023 024 031 001 03
173430 2118N 06202W 9771 00350 0168 +235 +224 080022 024 032 001 00
$$
;

[gatorcane]

Could the LLC or center be here?

Loop to judge for yourself:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
~~~~~~~
I place a possible circulation center at about 20.5n 60.0w. If recon finds it at the lower levels this is where I think it will be.

[HURAKAN]

[gatorcane]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/flash-rgb-long.html
~~~~~~~
I place a possible circulation center at about 20.5n 60.0w. If recon finds it at the lower levels this is where I think it will be.

Yeah that is where I have it. The graphic I posted above your post is where I think it could be trying to form. Could be only mid-level "ephemeral" vorts though. We will see...

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 281744
AF301 0104A DORIAN HDOB 11 20130728
173500 2118N 06200W 9772 00347 0166 +238 +217 086022 022 033 000 00
173530 2118N 06158W 9772 00348 0166 +240 +211 087022 022 032 000 00
173600 2118N 06157W 9769 00350 0166 +240 +208 095022 022 032 001 03
173630 2119N 06155W 9772 00347 0165 +245 +196 097021 022 031 000 00
173700 2119N 06153W 9770 00349 0166 +243 +199 098022 022 031 000 03
173730 2119N 06151W 9769 00350 0166 +240 +206 100023 023 030 000 00
173800 2119N 06150W 9772 00348 0166 +237 +211 102021 023 031 000 00
173830 2119N 06148W 9770 00350 0167 +240 +210 104022 023 032 000 00
173900 2119N 06146W 9773 00347 0167 +236 +215 103024 024 031 000 03
173930 2119N 06144W 9770 00351 0168 +233 +217 102024 025 029 001 03
174000 2119N 06143W 9768 00352 0168 +234 +218 103024 025 029 000 00
174030 2119N 06141W 9768 00351 0167 +233 +220 103025 025 030 002 03
174100 2120N 06139W 9772 00347 0166 +233 +220 104026 026 031 001 00
174130 2120N 06138W 9770 00349 0167 +231 +221 102026 026 032 000 03
174200 2120N 06136W 9772 00348 0167 +231 +221 101026 026 031 001 03
174230 2120N 06134W 9771 00348 0167 +234 +217 104026 026 031 002 03
174300 2120N 06132W 9772 00348 0167 +235 +213 104025 026 032 001 03
174330 2120N 06131W 9770 00350 0168 +233 +220 102024 025 029 001 00
174400 2120N 06129W 9771 00349 0167 +231 +224 100025 026 030 001 00
174430 2120N 06127W 9769 00352 0167 +233 +224 099025 025 029 001 00
$$
;

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/flash-rgb-long.html
~~~~~~~
I place a possible circulation center at about 20.5n 60.0w. If recon finds it at the lower levels this is where I think it will be.

Yeah that is where I have it. The graphic I posted above your post is where I think it could be trying to form. Could be only mid-level "ephemeral" vorts though. We will see...

Recon seems to be finding consistant 30 mph winds still far from the center. I have very little doubt it's not back to a depression.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...
IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS
WINDS TO GALE FORCE...A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM TO DETERMINE IF A CLOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND A WELL-DEFINED CENTER HAVE REDEVELOPED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
REGENERATION...BUT ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD LEAD
TO THE REFORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH...PASSING NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY
AND MONDAY...AND MOVING OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Blown Away]

Interesting from 2pm:
Moving WNW not W
Slowed down to 15-20
If Dorian reforms, Bahamas/SFL very likely to be in error cone

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 281754
AF301 0104A DORIAN HDOB 12 20130728
174500 2120N 06126W 9773 00349 0168 +235 +222 103024 026 031 001 03
174530 2120N 06124W 9772 00350 0169 +234 +221 102024 025 031 000 03
174600 2121N 06122W 9770 00352 0170 +234 +222 100023 023 030 001 03
174630 2121N 06120W 9771 00352 0170 +234 +224 103023 023 031 001 00
174700 2121N 06119W 9770 00353 0170 +233 +221 101023 024 031 001 03
174730 2121N 06117W 9772 00351 0171 +231 +220 101024 024 030 001 03
174800 2121N 06115W 9772 00352 0171 +232 +217 106025 025 030 001 03
174830 2121N 06114W 9769 00354 0171 +234 +211 110025 025 031 000 03
174900 2121N 06112W 9772 00351 0171 +235 +212 107025 026 030 000 00
174930 2121N 06110W 9772 00351 0171 +231 +217 106024 024 029 000 03
175000 2121N 06108W 9770 00354 0172 +231 +217 104023 024 029 000 00
175030 2121N 06107W 9769 00354 0172 +232 +213 106022 023 029 000 00
175100 2122N 06105W 9769 00355 0171 +231 +213 106021 022 029 000 03
175130 2122N 06103W 9771 00352 0171 +230 +214 106023 024 029 000 03
175200 2122N 06101W 9769 00354 0171 +230 +215 107022 022 028 002 03
175230 2121N 06100W 9769 00351 0169 +234 +209 103021 021 /// /// 03
175300 2120N 06100W 9770 00351 0169 +234 +209 093021 022 028 001 00
175330 2118N 06102W 9772 00349 0169 +231 +214 088022 022 027 000 00
175400 2117N 06103W 9770 00352 0170 +232 +215 087021 022 028 000 00
175430 2116N 06105W 9772 00349 0169 +235 +215 089022 022 028 000 00
$$
;

[CalmBeforeStorm]

BUT ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD LEAD
TO THE REFORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS

That's strange wording. A cyclone could form at any time but there's only a 30% chance?

[wxman57]

It takes more than 20-30kt easterly winds to classify a depression. Normal tradewinds are 15-25 kts. Pressure near Dorian appears to be 1018-1019mb with pressure in the NE Caribbean 1017mb. That's quite high. No evidence of surface circulation, only mid-level. Still no global model support of redevelopment, only statistical.

Here's a very high-res shot of Caribbean & Dorian:

http://models.weatherbell.com/goes/gif/ ... urrent.gif

[HURAKAN]