ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Stacy!! 8pm TWO 50%

There are the results of that CBS4 tweet.

I spoke to Stacy early today Luis and he seemed rather concerned with ex Dorian once it slows to less the 10kts in the Bahamas he mentioned the very deep Gulf Stream waters. Recon later 1030 correct? should be interesting especially if they relocated the possible developing llc were storms are currently fireing.

Noticed in the 18z models after 72 hours there was a slow down and ultimate recurve...

[Dean4Storms]

The TCHP really increases once you get in the Bahamas.

[chaser1]

Live IR: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Live IR with map: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

WV: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

WOW, just looked at the WV loop link directly above..... Two things I noticed that were interesting. One, yet "another" dry slot of air rapidly dropping south. Some of this air may too be ingested into Dorian's fragile circulation, though Dorian is moving away from it, plus the air directly to its south is far worse. Of greater interest however, is take a look at that diving trough just to the east of Dorian. What an outflow jet if Dorian can really start to muster up some serious convection.

The hourly and daily changing conditions and multiple adverse conditions that this storm has maintained itself through is really been fascinating AND unpredictable.

[Bocadude85]

18z...The initial point was based off the postion that is farther W than where the suspect LLC may be...Guessing there will be some adjustment to these tracks

Yea if a new center does form further east I would assume the system would recurve over Florida instead of over the E Gulf.

[jlauderdal]

Stacy!! 8pm TWO 50%

Levi cowan said it was dead and Stewart goes to 50,

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[pgoss11]

Got to admit..Dorian has been a challenging but fun storm to follow this early in the season. It's certainly unpredictable!

[TheStormExpert]

What about shear? Isn't shear still going to be an issue starting tonight or tomorrow?

[perk]

Stacy!! 8pm TWO 50%

Levi cowan said it was dead and Stewart goes to 50,

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I'll take Stewart any day.

[TheStormExpert]

Stacy!! 8pm TWO 50%

Levi cowan said it was dead and Stewart goes to 50,

Sent Using Tapatalk2

It seems like we have two different camps! One for it redeveloping and one for it being game over!

[Blown Away]

Based on the graphic, very clear the NHC moved their area of suspicion ENE from the 18z position...

[cycloneye]

Ok folks,let's not focus on individuals but on 91L/Ex Dorian,thanks.

[chaser1]

I spoke to Stacy early today Luis and he seemed rather concerned with ex Dorian once it slows to less the 10kts in the Bahamas.....[/quote]

Does anyone happen to know (or maybe was discussed earlier) what speed Dorian has been moving lately, say for the last 12 hours????? All day looking at this system, and have been think that it seems to be moving distinctly slower this afternoon.

[Evil Jeremy]

IMO Dorian looks better right now than he did 10 hours ago. There was more intense convection this morning, but it was lacking structure, which developed nicely throughout the day. In fact, the outflow looks beautiful from all angles. Most storms can only dream of having this nice of an outflow. A very rare example of a TUTT helping a storm.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I'll let you know in the next half hour when the 0z ATCF update comes out.

[chaser1]

What about shear? Isn't shear still going to be an issue starting tonight or tomorrow?

I'm not entirely shear about that Sorry, couldn't help myself
Though the models seem to be vacillating, I still get the impression that an upper high more or less forms over the system; of course it'll need convection to maintain it, while moving WNW. Either way, for the moment...shear is not the primary issue.

[WeatherEmperor]

What about shear? Isn't shear still going to be an issue starting tonight or tomorrow?

I'm not entirely shear about that Sorry, couldn't help myself
Though the models seem to be vacillating, I still get the impression that an upper high more or less forms over the system; of course it'll need convection to maintain it, while moving WNW. Either way, for the moment...shear is not the primary issue.

Ok. So would you say that dry air would be the biggest problem? Clearly sea surface temperatures are plenty warm and Ships is forecasting lowers shear up ahead so it must be something....like dry air perhaps?

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[bahamaswx]

What about shear? Isn't shear still going to be an issue starting tonight or tomorrow?

Shear has supposed to have been an issue all day, and the pocket of high shear is immediately to his west, but is pretty much moving west in tandem with ex-Dorian.

[chaser1]

What about shear? Isn't shear still going to be an issue starting tonight or tomorrow?

Ok. So would you say that dry air would be the biggest problem? Clearly sea surface temperatures are plenty warm and Ships is forecasting lowers shear up ahead so it must be something....like dry air perhaps?

Bingo!

[Blown Away]

What about shear? Isn't shear still going to be an issue starting tonight or tomorrow?

Shear has supposed to have been an issue all day, and the pocket of high shear is immediately to his west, but is pretty much moving west in tandem with ex-Dorian.

ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* DORIAN AL912013 07/28/13 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
SHEAR (KT) 14 16 19 16 14 14 9 15 9 8 9 7 9


VERY LOW COMPARED TO PREDICTIONS OVER PAST FEW DAYS...

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

AL, 91, 2013072900, , BEST, 0, 204N, 620W, 35, 1011, WV, 34, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 40, 1015, 100, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DORIAN, M,