ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[floridasun78]

it look like plane going home

[Dave]

Sounds good King...we've got a good chance of severe weather in my area tomorrow, not sure on the timing yet but looked like afternoon which will pull me off this and onto local wx if it develops.

Get it wherever you can, lol. Enjoy the "chase"...

LOL Pete...still waiting on obs 22......and waiting...

[CrazyC83]

They probably won't kill it off immediately, but make note. Maybe the center might reform.

[ozonepete]

They probably won't kill it off immediately, but make note. Maybe the center might reform.

Anyone expecting a death sentence from the NHC will probably be pretty surprised...

[floridasun78]

tonight when CHANTAL die we see you next few years

[brunota2003]

"After considerable and sometimes animated in-house discussion of whether Chantal meets the definition of a tropical cyclone..." Are we going to get one of those discussions tonight?

[artist]

anyone watched the program Hurricane Hunters yet?
What they have to go through sometimes is crazy, from bad sondes, down communications, to delays getting off the ground, whether due to fog, birds, etc.

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree, looking absolutely horrible now. Not sure if it's an open wave let though that some are suggesting, but wouldn't be shocked if it is.....Seems to get worse with every frame.............It's early in the season though so this isn't a surprise.

[floridasun78]

we seen plane report pressure of center by now getting close to 11pm

[brunota2003]

I have! There was one they said it took them an hour and a half to get off the ground due to something, I didn't catch what though.

[ozonepete]

"After considerable and sometimes animated in-house discussion of whether Chantal meets the definition of a tropical cyclone..." Are we going to get one of those discussions tonight?

I hope not, lol. I'm tired. I'm about to cash it in for the night no matter what the NHC says. And we haven't even gotten to wobble watching yet.

[kat61]

wow..never been on this or even inquiring before August...is there an anomily this year with weather patterns...just seems real early for eastern CONUS to be having a possibility...

[Dave]

we seen plane report pressure of center by now getting close to 11pm

Could be transmitter trouble..no recco's have been sent either and normally they send them if they can. Waiting..seen it before will see it again I'm sure. You learn patience real fast on recon.

[Steve H.]

I disagree. There is a new hot tower showing up near the center. It is not dead yet Jim!

[floridasun78]

we seen plane report pressure of center by now getting close to 11pm

Could be transmitter trouble..no recco's have been sent either and normally they send them if they can. Waiting..seen it before will see it again I'm sure.

have their report issue?

[Evil Jeremy]

:crying: tonight when CHANTAL die we see you next few years

Chantal isn't dead yet and isn't dying tonight.

[Aric Dunn]

more recon !!

[jinftl]

And not a good harbinger of the season ahead - excerpt from Dr. Jeff Masters blog...


Chantal's formation on July 8 is an usually early date for formation of the season's third storm, which usually occurs on August 13. A large number of early-season named storms is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season, unless one or more of these storms form in the deep tropics, south of 23.5°N. According to Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, leaders of Colorado State's seasonal hurricane forecasting team,

"Most years do not have named storm formations in June and July in the tropical Atlantic (south of 23.5°N); however, if tropical formations do occur, it indicates that a very active hurricane season is likely. For example, the seven years with the most named storm days in the deep tropics in June and July (since 1949) are 1966, 1969, 1995, 1996, 1998, 2005, and 2008. All seven of these seasons were very active. When storms form in the deep tropics in the early part of the hurricane season, it indicates that conditions are already very favorable for TC development. In general, the start of the hurricane season is restricted by thermodynamics (warm SSTs, unstable lapse rates), and therefore deep tropical activity early in the hurricane season implies that the thermodynamics are already quite favorable for tropical cyclone (TC) development."

Two of this season's three storms have formed in the deep tropics--Tropical Storm Barry, which formed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche at a latitude of 19.6°N, and now Tropical Storm Chantal, which formed at a latitude of 9.8°N. With recent runs of the GFS model predicting formation of yet another tropical storm southwest of the Cape Verde Islands early next week, it appears that the Atlantic is primed for an active hurricane season in 2013.

Jeff Masters

:roll: wow..never been on this or even inquiring before August...is there an anomily this year with weather patterns...just seems real early for eastern CONUS to be having a possibility...

[HURAKAN]

has wxman57 talked to Jim? lol

[Dave]

Coming in again...

000
URNT15 KNHC 100240
AF306 0303A CHANTAL HDOB 22 20130710
020800 1531N 06621W 8431 01607 0140 +170 +163 141020 020 019 000 00
020830 1532N 06622W 8431 01606 0139 +170 +162 139019 020 018 000 00
020900 1532N 06624W 8428 01612 0145 +165 +158 140018 019 017 000 03
020930 1534N 06625W 8426 01614 0144 +165 +161 141017 018 /// /// 03
021000 1535N 06624W 8429 01606 0141 +164 +162 146016 017 024 001 00
021030 1537N 06623W 8433 01602 //// +165 //// 148017 020 023 001 01
021100 1538N 06622W 8429 01606 0138 +169 +161 154019 020 022 000 00
021130 1540N 06621W 8429 01608 0136 +171 +166 151019 019 021 000 00
021200 1541N 06620W 8428 01610 0135 +172 +166 150020 021 020 000 01
021230 1542N 06619W 8430 01607 0137 +172 +163 143023 024 020 000 00
021300 1544N 06618W 8430 01606 0136 +172 +161 144026 028 020 000 00
021330 1545N 06617W 8429 01608 0135 +175 +157 145027 028 024 000 00
021400 1547N 06616W 8429 01607 0132 +178 +155 148028 029 024 001 00
021430 1548N 06616W 8429 01605 0132 +180 +153 148029 029 026 000 00
021500 1550N 06615W 8433 01603 0130 +182 +153 150029 030 027 000 00
021530 1552N 06614W 8263 01778 0130 +173 +145 146028 029 028 000 03
021600 1554N 06614W 7968 02092 0134 +155 +130 142029 029 /// /// 03
021630 1555N 06613W 7681 02396 0130 +136 +112 142029 031 /// /// 03
021700 1557N 06613W 7405 02707 0129 +117 +101 133034 036 /// /// 03
021730 1559N 06612W 7141 03015 0123 +107 +080 133031 036 /// /// 03
$$
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