ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[fci]

LGEM and SHIPS make this a hurricane in 96 hours, weaken it by 120 hours thanks to landfall in southern Florida. GFDL ensemble mean brings this to 55 knots in 5 days, but many individual ensemble members make this a Category 1 and even Category 2 hurricane.

It's up to Dorian now...whether it meets these projections or not. DMAX should help output more storms => more outflow => more warming of the troposphere => higher heights => a weaker upper-level trough. If it makes too quickly though, it'll outrun its anticyclone (seems unlikely). It has a very vigorous mid-level center that could work down at any time, if it hasn't already.

Ouch!
Not sure that a landfall in South Florida is what we want to be the cause for the weakening of a hurricane!!!
I'll take shear, colder water, governmental regulation........ most anything rather than a landfall to cause weakening especially (selfishly) one in Southern Florida!!

[chaser1]

Rich yeah I agree with you that this thing is looking like it will regenerate. I am sure in the Keys you are closely monitoring this situation as I am in mainland South Florida.

Evening.

Since I live in Miami and own a home on a canal in Key Largo. I guess I need to decide if there is anything to really be concerned with. And if so what to expect and what type of prep to do.[/quote]

Well, being on a canal in the Keys does pose certain issues above and beyond just "getting up and going". No reason to do anything quite yet but keep an ear to the latest. My father in law lives in Key Largo Village and on the water, so I can share your angst.

[Nikki]

If classified again are we looking at Dorian? Or new name?

It will be Dorian, again.

[cycloneye]

If classified again are we looking at Dorian? Or new name?

Dorian.

[fci]

If it does reform the local news in Miami is going into overhype tomorrow. :/

Just curious....what would you suggest that local news in Miami do if Miami is suddenly in the cone for a storm that was left for dead yesterday?

[Miami Storm Tracker]

If classified again are we looking at Dorian? Or new name?

Not for sure but think it would remain the same name. The floater had Dorian listed on it earlier today,

[gatorcane]

NWS Miami graphic, posted 1 hour 20 min ago:

[bahamaswx]

Still no very deep convection firing, but looking for it to happen soon.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

LGEM and SHIPS make this a hurricane in 96 hours, weaken it by 120 hours thanks to landfall in southern Florida. GFDL ensemble mean brings this to 55 knots in 5 days, but many individual ensemble members make this a Category 1 and even Category 2 hurricane.

It's up to Dorian now...whether it meets these projections or not. DMAX should help output more storms => more outflow => more warming of the troposphere => higher heights => a weaker upper-level trough. If it makes too quickly though, it'll outrun its anticyclone (seems unlikely). It has a very vigorous mid-level center that could work down at any time, if it hasn't already.

Ouch!
Not sure that a landfall in South Florida is what we want to be the cause for the weakening of a hurricane!!!
I'll take shear, colder water, governmental regulation........ most anything rather than a landfall to cause weakening especially (selfishly) one in Southern Florida!!

Would you have a link for that ?

[tgenius]

If it does reform the local news in Miami is going into overhype tomorrow. :/

Just curious....what would you suggest that local news in Miami do if Miami is suddenly in the cone for a storm that was left for dead yesterday?

I'm not saying its wrong to go in and let the general public know , just saying the news will broadcast from every gas station publix and Home Depot. That's all.

[Blown Away]

00z models...

LGEM/SHIP/DSHP weaken Dorian at 120 b/c of Florida...I think...

[CourierPR]

If it does reform the local news in Miami is going into overhype tomorrow. :/

Just curious....what would you suggest that local news in Miami do if Miami is suddenly in the cone for a storm that was left for dead yesterday?

fci, you are quite correct. There is a distinction between hype and prudent warning regarding a tropical cyclone that develops quickly and close to land.

[ozonepete]

Aric i see ur on..

Actually he's away but checking by phone. Gotta believe he'll have a lot to say when he comes back.

[ozonepete]

If it does reform the local news in Miami is going into overhype tomorrow. :/

Just curious....what would you suggest that local news in Miami do if Miami is suddenly in the cone for a storm that was left for dead yesterday?

I'm not saying its wrong to go in and let the general public know , just saying the news will broadcast from every gas station publix and Home Depot. That's all.

Imho they should. Don't like the way this is trending... It's in the area where Andrew got sheared and was left for dead.

Definitely not saying it has that potential, but it does have potential to strengthen before it reaches Florida. That's all.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Rich yeah I agree with you that this thing is looking like it will regenerate. I am sure in the Keys you are closely monitoring this situation as I am in mainland South Florida.

Evening.

Since I live in Miami and own a home on a canal in Key Largo. I guess I need to decide if there is anything to really be concerned with. And if so what to expect and what type of prep to do.

Well, being on a canal in the Keys does pose certain issues above and beyond just "getting up and going". No reason to do anything quite yet but keep an ear to the latest. My father in law lives in Key Largo Village and on the water, so I can share your angst.[/quote]
Thanks Chaser,

on stilts but sill have to worry about down stairs securing the boat. Now some are talking possible hurricane. I am just up the road from your father, lake surprise.

[blp]

It looks good tonight, but I am not buying it just yet. Seen to many cases were it turns out to be mid level circ. With that said it won't take much time to work to the surface. I think the slowdown in forward speed today has helped tremendously. It looks to be around 15knots.

[gatorcane]

Imho they should. Don't like the way this is trending... It's in the area where Andrew got sheared and was left for dead.

Definitely not saying it has that potential, but it does have potential to strengthen before it reaches Florida. That's all.

Yeah I don't like the way this is trending either. This has the "look" it is about to make a big comeback.

[perk]

If it does reform the local news in Miami is going into overhype tomorrow. :/

Just curious....what would you suggest that local news in Miami do if Miami is suddenly in the cone for a storm that was left for dead yesterday?

That's still no reason to overhype a storm.

[tolakram]

Imho they should. Don't like the way this is trending... It's in the area where Andrew got sheared and was left for dead.

Definitely not saying it has that potential, but it does have potential to strengthen before it reaches Florida. That's all.

I asked above, I'll ask again. What was the most recent occurrence of a significant storm developing that had no model support? I put the limit at 5 years, but longer is ok. I honestly don't know, but in this day and age it seems like this would be something unheard of. Not even the Canadian develops this.

[Tyler Penland]

Imho they should. Don't like the way this is trending... It's in the area where Andrew got sheared and was left for dead.

Definitely not saying it has that potential, but it does have potential to strengthen before it reaches Florida. That's all.

I asked above, I'll ask again. What was the most recent occurrence of a significant storm developing that had no model support? I put the limit at 5 years, but longer is ok. I honestly don't know, but in this day and age it seems like this would be something unheard of. Not even the Canadian develops this.

It didn't develop it a week ago either, and we see how that panned out.
Neither did the Euro, or the Ukie (though it did kind of pick up on it eventually).