ATL: ANDREA - Post-Tropical

[NDG]

X is the naked low level circulation that is evident on satellite and that the NHC placed as the best track position, it is moving westward.
The circled area is where we may see a new LLC form closer to the convection, IMO.

[GCANE]

IMHO, it looks like the swirl is moving to the west.

The more west it moves, the more it gets away from the 200mb PV anomaly over it.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8vor1.GIF

Basically, that is what is putting a lid on convection since it is pushing down on parcel ascent.

Maybe then, LL convergence can kick in and fire off convection.

Need to wait and see.

[jlauderdal]

Why Jlauderdale? Because of dry air? Confused.....

plenty of moisture to work with just not much lift to make it an efficient rain producer, lets see what happens later today and tomorrow, looks better each day as the low finally pulls out and the front gets closer...not much was supposed to happen until weds anyway so we are right ons chedule

[adam0983]

This invest 91L is very impressive for an Invest because of how far the Rainfield extends with this Invest. It extends from Cozumel all the way to Port Saint Lucie Florida. That's Impressive.

[wxman57]

IMHO, it looks like the swirl is moving to the west.

The more west it moves, the more it gets away from the 200mb PV anomaly over it.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8vor1.GIF

Basically, that is what is putting a lid on convection since it is pushing down on parcel ascent.

Maybe then, LL convergence can kick in and fire off convection.

Need to wait and see.

We can ignore that swirl. It IS heading off to the west away from all low-level convergence. Will probably start rotating SW soon and/or die out. Look just north of the Yucatan where low-level convergence has been increasing.

[jlauderdal]

This invest 91L is very impressive for an Invest because of how far the Rainfield extends with this Invest. It extends from Cozumel all the way to Port Saint Lucie Florida. That's Impressive.

weak systems can be very large in size and rain for days, think of noname system back in 2002 or so in sofla, huge rain producer

[MGC]

Naked circulation has little chance....low would have to reform near convection for anything to get going. Lots of dry air and shear still....MGC

[Miami Storm Tracker]

[quote="NDG"]X is the naked low level circulation that is evident on satellite and that the NHC placed as the best track position, it is moving westward.
The circled area is where we may see a new LLC form closer to the convection, IMO.

NDG,

Any chance a new circulation could form further south east under that big ball of storms blowing up.


[/quot

[tolakram]

I don't think that swirl was identified as the center, I think it was the area south of it that the swirl is rotating around.

10 frame loop. Speed it up, but it won't really help. http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[NDG]

Tampa area NWS office is right about talking about the possibility of severe weather for tomorrow and especially on Thursday, IMO.
GFS continues to show a strong low level jet developing.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
510 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
MAY NEED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...BUT STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO ISSUE AS THE SYSTEM HAS GOT A
LONG WAY TO GO. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE THE
SITUATION TO SEE IF A FLOOD WATCH NEEDS TO BE ISSUED. ANOTHER
PARAMETER THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WATERSPOUTS/WEAK TORNADOES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE OVERALL INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED THANKS TO THE CLOUDS AND
RAINFALL...BUT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY AND SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
WATERSPOUTS/WEAK TORNADOES.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[Evil Jeremy]

That LLC is far seperated from the rest of 91L. Looks like the invest spit it out. I wouldn't be surprised to see a new LLC form today in the convection ball west of Cozumel.

[NDG]

X is the naked low level circulation that is evident on satellite and that the NHC placed as the best track position, it is moving westward.
The circled area is where we may see a new LLC form closer to the convection, IMO.

NDG,

Any chance a new circulation could form further south east under that big ball of storms blowing up.


http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 7e9d6d.jpg[/quot

I don't see that, if anything the convection is moving closer to the circled area.

[GCANE]

IMHO, it looks like the swirl is moving to the west.

The more west it moves, the more it gets away from the 200mb PV anomaly over it.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8vor1.GIF

Basically, that is what is putting a lid on convection since it is pushing down on parcel ascent.

Maybe then, LL convergence can kick in and fire off convection.

Need to wait and see.

We can ignore that swirl. It IS heading off to the west away from all low-level convergence. Will probably start rotating SW soon and/or die out. Look just north of the Yucatan where low-level convergence has been increasing.

That swirl has been there for a good 24 hours.

If RAP is right, which is showing strong 500mb theta-e convergence this afternoon maybe from that convective debris, WV Sat presentation should get moist looking quickly.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... 500_MB.png

I am rootin for the swirl - Go Swirl!

[jlauderdal]

Why Jlauderdale? Because of dry air? Confused.....

here you go, if we could get any kind of heating today then maybe something can get established but right now it looks like a damp cloudy day in sofla and not much more then light to moderate rain...weds, thurs, fri should be more active



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1050 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013

UPDATE

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS WITH RECENT RADAR RETURNS
INDICATING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. AS INDICATED
BY THE RECENT MESO-SCALE MODEL GUIDANCE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY HAMPER DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA
TODAY. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...ONCE AGAIN CONSIDERED DROPPING THE
SHORT TERM POP'S AND REMOVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING.
HOWEVER...WITH PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARIES AND OTHER FACTORS THERE
STILL IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ISOLATED
LOCATIONS.

[Aric Dunn]

IMHO, it looks like the swirl is moving to the west.

The more west it moves, the more it gets away from the 200mb PV anomaly over it.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8vor1.GIF

Basically, that is what is putting a lid on convection since it is pushing down on parcel ascent.

Maybe then, LL convergence can kick in and fire off convection.

Need to wait and see.

We can ignore that swirl. It IS heading off to the west away from all low-level convergence. Will probably start rotating SW soon and/or die out. Look just north of the Yucatan where low-level convergence has been increasing.

yeah that area just off the Yucatan appears to have quite a bit more rotational energy associated with it. once it a solid llc can develop it will likely organize quite rapidly then just maintain TD or weak Ts for the remainder of its life.

[Dean4Storms]

We're dry over here as well. We need the rain!

[Dave]

WEDNESDAY JUNE 5 & THURSDAY JUNE 6

000
NOUS42 KNHC 041516
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT TUE 04 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JUNE 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-004

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- GULF OG MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 05/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 05/1730Z
D. 24.0N 89.0W
E. 05/1830Z TO 05/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 06/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 06/0415Z
D. 25.5N 88.0W
E. 06/0530 TO 06/1000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL FIX MISSION
NEAR 27.0N AND 86.0W AT 06/1800Z

3. REMARKS: THE IVEST SCHEDULED FOR 04/1900Z WAS CANX
BY NHC AT 04/1300Z.

[Dave]

THE INVEST SCHEDULED FOR 04/1900Z WAS CANX BY NHC AT 04/1300Z.

SUSPECT AREA -- GULF OF MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 05/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 05/1730Z
D. 24.0N 89.0W
E. 05/1830Z TO 05/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

A mission for Wednesday & one for Thursday have been scheduled if necessary.

[jlauderdal]

Why Jlauderdale? Because of dry air? Confused.....

here you go, if we could get any kind of heating today then maybe something can get established but right now it looks like a damp cloudy day in sofla and not much more then light to moderate rain...weds, thurs, fri should be more active



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1050 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013

UPDATE

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS WITH RECENT RADAR RETURNS
INDICATING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. AS INDICATED
BY THE RECENT MESO-SCALE MODEL GUIDANCE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY HAMPER DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA
TODAY. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...ONCE AGAIN CONSIDERED DROPPING THE
SHORT TERM POP'S AND REMOVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING.
HOWEVER...WITH PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARIES AND OTHER FACTORS THERE
STILL IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ISOLATED
LOCATIONS.

an hour later and we have some tstorms developing

[Dean4Storms]

RPM into Appalachicola.....


https://twitter.com/spann/status/341939 ... 13/photo/1