CPAC: FLOSSIE - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=8

Live IR loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=8

Latest

Not done yet by any means.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track at 55kts.

EP, 06, 2013072818, , BEST, 0, 198N, 1477W, 55, 996, TS

[Yellow Evan]

A tad off-topic, but Hawaii my not be out of the woods yet. The GFS does not show it in the run below, but it has shown another tropical system threatening Hawaii.

[Ellsey]

My in-laws live in Honolulu, and I keep trying to get my husband to call and make sure they are keeping up on things. I think they will be though since my father-in-law is a bigtime surfer. I am watching this very carefully though, and I hope our other local members are ready for anything!

[Kingarabian]

28/1800 UTC 19.8N 148.0W T2.5/3.0 FLOSSIE -- Central Pacific

[Kingarabian]

[Yellow Evan]

Continues to impress me. Outflow looks really good for a storm in this environment.

[Alyono]

cannot entirely rule out a hurricane

Maybe CPHC needs to consider a hurricane watch

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 16
Issued: 1100 AM HST SUN JUL 28 2013
Flossie weakens slightly as it continues to move toward the Hawaiian islands
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION: 19.9N 148.5W
ABOUT 430 MI: 690 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 615 MI: 990 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 60 MPH: 95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT: W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH: 32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 MB or 29.41 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
A tropical storm warning warning has been issued for Oahu. A tropical storm watch has been issued for Kauai and Niihau.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR:
*HAWAII COUNTY
*MAUI COUNTY, INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, MOLOKAI, LANAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
*OAHU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
*KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE HONOLULU NWS FORECAST
OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 1100 am HST, 2100 UTC, the center of tropical storm Flossie was located near latitude 19.9 north, longitude 148.5 west. Flossie is moving toward the west near 20 mph, 32 km/h, and this motion is expected to continue through the next 48 hours, with a slight slowing in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph, 95 km/h, with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles, 260 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb, 29.41 inches.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND
Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the Big Island and Maui county Monday morning, and are possible on Oahu Monday night.

RAINFALL
Heavy rainfall is expected to begin as early as Monday morning over Hawaii county and Monday afternoon over Maui county, with heavy rain spreading to Oahu by Monday night. Flossie is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches over the Big Island and Maui county, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible, mainly windward. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are possible over Oahu, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible, mainly windward. This rainfall could cause life- threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in the mountains.

SURF
Dangerously large surf will begin to impact east facing shores of the islands as early as tonight with the largest surf expected on Monday into Tuesday. Be aware that large surf can cause coastal road closures, even before the storm arrives. Please consult the latest hurricane local statement for information specific to your area.

NEXT ADVISORY
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER POWELL

[Alyono]

What in God's name are they doing at CPHC? Lowering the winds?

The latest satellite data indicates HIGHER winds. Multi-platform analysis indicates that winds INCREASED from 51 KT to 57 KT between 12 and 18Z

[Kingarabian]

What in God's name are they doing at CPHC? Lowering the winds?

The latest satellite data indicates HIGHER winds. Multi-platform analysis indicates that winds INCREASED from 51 KT to 57 KT between 12 and 18Z

Maybe because SAB/TAFB dropped to 2.5/3.0?

[Kingarabian]

TPA41 PHFO 282057
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062013
1100 AM HST SUN JUL 28 2013

SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS YIELDS A CONSISTENT 3.0 FOR CURRENT
FLOSSIE INTENSITY FROM PHFO...JTWC AND SAB. WHILE OVERNIGHT PULSING
CONVECTIVE BLOOMS SUGGESTED A STRONGER SYSTEM AT THAT TIME...THE
INITIAL STRENGTH FOR THIS BULLETIN CYCLE WILL BE 50 KT IN DEFERENCE
TO THE DVORAK CONSENSUS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST AT 17 KT.

THE ENVIRONMENT THAT FLOSSIE IS MOVING INTO WILL GRADUALLY CAUSE
SYSTEM WEAKENING. SSTS WARM SLIGHTLY ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH OF
FLOSSIE. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS SYSTEM EMBEDDED
IN AN AREA OF INCREASINGLY DRY AIR ALOFT DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. AS FLOSSIE MOVES WEST...THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO IMPOSE
INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A GRADUAL WEAKENING AND...APART FROM THE
SLIGHTLY LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY...THE FORECAST TREND IS ABOUT THE
SAME AS FROM THE LAST CYCLE. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE.

TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AS FLOSSIE DISTANCES ITSELF
FROM THE SURFACE RIDGE FAR TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND BEGINS TO
FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH NEARLY
ALL THE MODELS SHOWING FLOSSIE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI MONDAY
MORNING...THEN PASSING SOUTH OF OAHU MONDAY NIGHT. ONLY
BAMMS...INTERESTINGLY AS THE RIGHT OUTLIER...TAKES FLOSSIE JUST
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST LIES ALMOST EXACTLY
ALONG THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 19.9N 148.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 20.0N 151.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 20.2N 154.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 20.3N 157.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 20.5N 161.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 20.9N 167.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 21.2N 174.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER POWELL

[hawaiigirl]

Going to pick up some flash lights, and candles... I'm guessing the power will go out. Do you think I would need to board up my windows? Shouldn't be that strong right?

[Yellow Evan]

What in God's name are they doing at CPHC? Lowering the winds?

The latest satellite data indicates HIGHER winds. Multi-platform analysis indicates that winds INCREASED from 51 KT to 57 KT between 12 and 18Z

CPHC is much worse than the NHC. They are usually very conservative or too quick to lower a storm's winds. I would have kept it at 55 knt too. I think this will make landfall with winds of 40 knts in 36 hours.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

Going to pick up some flash lights, and candles... I'm guessing the power will go out. Do you think I would need to board up my windows? Shouldn't be that strong right?

What elevation do you live at? Higher up you go, stronger the winds.

[WeatherGuesser]

Do you think I would need to board up my windows? Shouldn't be that strong right?

Depends on where you are.

[WeatherGuesser]

Track has this thing threading the needle between the islands which could keep it from losing too much intensity. Hawaii and Oahu both have high elevations, but it looks like it will miss all of those.

[Yellow Evan]

Track has this thing threading the needle between the islands which could keep it from losing too much intensity. Hawaii and Oahu both have high elevations, but it looks like it will miss all of those.

Sounds like Gil 83 too me, which passed between Maui and Oahu.

[Portastorm]

Going to pick up some flash lights, and candles... I'm guessing the power will go out. Do you think I would need to board up my windows? Shouldn't be that strong right?

hawaiigirl, I'm going to tell you what we S2K mods tell folks who ask that question when an Atlantic basin cyclone is threatening them. We strongly recommend you follow your local NWS forecast and their recommendations. They're probably issuing special weather statements already and advising island citizens on how to prepare. Please be safe!

[SootyTern]

When do storms in this part of the world get Hawaiian names?