ATL: INGRID - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#261 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Sep 11, 2013 11:11 pm

I think we are done with this one. Hopefully we can at least get a few outer rainbands from it, but it may be too far away for even that here. Sigh.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#262 Postby ROCK » Wed Sep 11, 2013 11:14 pm

NAVGEM up next...already started...let see what it has to say....

remember GFS always ridge biased...over cooks them..:lol:
Last edited by ROCK on Wed Sep 11, 2013 11:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#263 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Sep 11, 2013 11:15 pm

NAVGEM = LOL (my new T-shirt).

Someone was super excited about the 0z models earlier. LOL
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#264 Postby HouTXmetro » Wed Sep 11, 2013 11:15 pm

Even though it's inland, can't the remnants still move to the North and sling some rain up?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#265 Postby ROCK » Wed Sep 11, 2013 11:16 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:NAVGEM = LOL (my new T-shirt).

Someone was super excited about the 0z models earlier. LOL



I am still excited but maybe less... :D the GFS hanging this out to dry for 4 days in the BOC seems rather odd to me...
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Re:

#266 Postby ROCK » Wed Sep 11, 2013 11:17 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:Even though it's inland, can't the remnants still move to the North and sling some rain up?



the GFS say NO!! takes this to the EPAC....whats left..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#267 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Sep 11, 2013 11:18 pm

Sure, it does me too....But NAVGem rules! :P
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Re: Re:

#268 Postby HouTXmetro » Wed Sep 11, 2013 11:20 pm

ROCK wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:Even though it's inland, can't the remnants still move to the North and sling some rain up?



the GFS say NO!! takes this to the EPAC....whats left..


:roll: SMH, GFS What a tease. Seems like all the tropical system in this part of the Gulf.
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#269 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Sep 11, 2013 11:21 pm

I remember the good ol days when it was World War 3 around here GFS vs. EURO
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#270 Postby ROCK » Wed Sep 11, 2013 11:24 pm

NAV out 24hrs same as 18Z

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... watl_5.png


18Z didnt start moving until 48hr
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#271 Postby ROCK » Wed Sep 11, 2013 11:27 pm

48hr on the move same as 18z....

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... watl_9.png

the 12z and 0Z go out 180hrs....whereas the 18z and 6Z go out only 144hr....


66hr...http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2013091200/navgem_z500_vort_watl_12.png
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#272 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Sep 11, 2013 11:43 pm

Rock, since GFS has it spinning down there for days, thoughts on your NavGem doing the same thru 84?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#273 Postby ROCK » Wed Sep 11, 2013 11:48 pm

108hr still stuck in the BOC....this looks like the GFS from last night...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_19.png
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#274 Postby ROCK » Wed Sep 11, 2013 11:48 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:Rock, since GFS has it spinning down there for days, thoughts on your NavGem doing the same thru 84?



yeah those are some really really weak steering layers..... :lol:

144hr still down there.....oh brother...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#275 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Sep 11, 2013 11:53 pm

If that thing sits long enough, there's a state(s) EAST of Texas that could deal with it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#276 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 12, 2013 12:00 am

Wx_Warrior wrote:If that thing sits long enough, there's a state(s) EAST of Texas that could deal with it.


yep.....168hr and finally moving north out of BOC hell......


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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#277 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 12, 2013 12:15 am

0Z CMC...this is a weird run...splits a piece of energy off the top portion of 93 and goes into Texas......at 216 it has a TS hitting Freeport area only to back out and go down the coast.... :D

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#278 Postby LaBreeze » Thu Sep 12, 2013 12:40 am

Wx_Warrior wrote:If that thing sits long enough, there's a state(s) EAST of Texas that could deal with it.


No thanks, don't want it, don't need it. I know that you fine folks in Texas need the rain.
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#279 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Sep 12, 2013 1:04 am

Looks like the GFS Ensembles are starting to converge on 93L to be just east of Tampico by Sunday Evening....question is will it continue WNW or NW from there?


0zGFS Ensembles for Sunday Evening..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#280 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Sep 12, 2013 1:20 am

0z Euro is about 12 hours slower and slightly further north than the 12z run, making landfall just north of Tampico in 96 hours.
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