ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

So out of curiosity, in recent times (say the last 5 years), have we had a significant storm without any model support?

I remember Hurricane Dean in 2007 that GFS had with 1007 mbs.

[Bocadude85]

Imho they should. Don't like the way this is trending... It's in the area where Andrew got sheared and was left for dead.

Definitely not saying it has that potential, but it does have potential to strengthen before it reaches Florida. That's all.

I asked above, I'll ask again. What was the most recent occurrence of a significant storm developing that had no model support? I put the limit at 5 years, but longer is ok. I honestly don't know, but in this day and age it seems like this would be something unheard of. Not even the Canadian develops this.

That is a good question and I would like to know the answer also.. but to be fair no model forecasted this to be doing what its doing right now.. so if the NHC does pull the trigger and make this Dorian again then all the models will have busted.

[Bocadude85]

So out of curiosity, in recent times (say the last 5 years), have we had a significant storm without any model support?

I remember Hurricane Dean in 2007 that GFS had with 1007 mbs.

I think the models had a issue with Hurricane Felix also no?

[WYNweather]

If it does reform the local news in Miami is going into overhype tomorrow. :/

Just curious....what would you suggest that local news in Miami do if Miami is suddenly in the cone for a storm that was left for dead yesterday?

Lowe's CEO Robert Niblock and Home Depot's COO Fred Wacker calling the local South Florida news now. You can just picture the news trucks in front of the stores. "next at 5:00 local stores seeing a run on batteries etc etc

[gatorcane]

Snippet from Sun-Sentinel article which was posted at 3:38pm today. How quickly things have changed since this article was written.

Should I say "HAVE" us on edge?!?

By Ken Kaye, Sun Sentinel
3:50 p.m. EDT, July 28, 2013

Rees/ Redirect: Get the latest storm updates from Ken Kaye. SunSentinel.com/stormcenter

The heart of hurricane season is about two weeks away yet we've already felt the remnants of Tropical Storm Chantal earlier this month and for awhile Tropical Storm Dorian had us on edge.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/browar ... 2371.story

[tolakram]

It didn't develop it a week ago either, and we see how that panned out.
Neither did the Euro, or the Ukie (though it did kind of pick up on it eventually).

GFS developed it a week ago, check your sources. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

You can use this page to access recent model runs: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

I can understand only one model developing something, but to have every major model, including both reliable models, showing nothing but a dissipating system? I have no idea what will happen, but this will be something if it redevelops IMO.

[tolakram]

So out of curiosity, in recent times (say the last 5 years), have we had a significant storm without any model support?

I remember Hurricane Dean in 2007 that GFS had with 1007 mbs.

I think the models had a issue with Hurricane Felix also no?

I think they still do in the deep tropics. Not sure if that applies this far north.

[ROCK]

18Z ensembles



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[blp]

Imho they should. Don't like the way this is trending... It's in the area where Andrew got sheared and was left for dead.

Definitely not saying it has that potential, but it does have potential to strengthen before it reaches Florida. That's all.

I asked above, I'll ask again. What was the most recent occurrence of a significant storm developing that had no model support? I put the limit at 5 years, but longer is ok. I honestly don't know, but in this day and age it seems like this would be something unheard of. Not even the Canadian develops this.

I don't remember the year but Humberto that formed off Texas coast was one that caught everyone off guard. There are other cases I need to go back but smaller systems tend to give models problems. I believe Marco which was one of the smallest storms ever and formed in BOC might have also been missed I can't remember. I will look back later.

[Bocadude85]

Convection developing on the south side of the circulation now

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/imagery/rb_lalo-animated.gif

[Dean4Storms]

I've got what appears to be low level circulation near 62W and 20.5N moving slightly south of due west. Notice convection now firing around or just south of the center.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[weatherwindow]

Evening.

Since I live in Miami and own a home on a canal in Key Largo. I guess I need to decide if there is anything to really be concerned with. And if so what to expect and what type of prep to do.[/quote]

Well, being on a canal in the Keys does pose certain issues above and beyond just "getting up and going". No reason to do anything quite yet but keep an ear to the latest. My father in law lives in Key Largo Village and on the water, so I can share your angst.[/quote]
Thanks Chaser,

on stilts but sill have to worry about down stairs securing the boat. Now some are talking possible hurricane. I am just up the road from your father, lake surprise.[/quote]

Hello, MST...Fyi, assume you are familiar with a 6 point tie-off for canal moored craft?...If not, several publications lay it out in detail. If you have any questions, feel free to PM me..Conchs have to stick together

http://www.aicw.org/pdfs/hurricane-manual.pdf

[gatorcane]

Latest IR Rainbow Floater frame showing convection continues popping: Saved Image:

[ozonepete]

Imho they should. Don't like the way this is trending... It's in the area where Andrew got sheared and was left for dead.

Definitely not saying it has that potential, but it does have potential to strengthen before it reaches Florida. That's all.

I asked above, I'll ask again. What was the most recent occurrence of a significant storm developing that had no model support? I put the limit at 5 years, but longer is ok. I honestly don't know, but in this day and age it seems like this would be something unheard of. Not even the Canadian develops this.

I don't remember the year but Humberto that formed off Texas coast was one that caught everyone off guard. There are other cases I need to go back but smaller systems tend to give models problems. I believe Marco which was one of the smallest storms ever and formed in BOC might have also been missed I can't remember. I will look back later.

That's a good example and your point about small systems is very well taken. The way I see it, developing systems in questionable environments are always a problem for the models. This was bound to happen again and it won't be the last time, even if the models do well with most developing systems in less difficult environments.

[Dean4Storms]

Can we stay on the Storm and not the personal prep. situations?

[fci]

If it does reform the local news in Miami is going into overhype tomorrow. :/

Just curious....what would you suggest that local news in Miami do if Miami is suddenly in the cone for a storm that was left for dead yesterday?

That's still no reason to overhype a storm.

I made my comment regarding the media because the word "overhype" was used.
It seems that each time there is a threat there are people who find fault with the media.
"They are not covering the situation well enough"
"Overhype"
The media has a responsibility to inform and how they do that isn't going to please everyone
Some will crucify the local media for hourly updates while others will say that isn't enough.
Some complain that sending reporters to Home Depot is overhype while others will say the media isn't providing enough information.
A storm is NEWS and the media has a civic responsibility to keep people informed.
Why do some choose to immediately presume "overhype".
They are just doing their job.
Off my soapbox and let's hope that Dorian doesn't threaten us so the whole discussion here is a moot point.
Good luck to all!

[HURAKAN]

btw, Humberto did intensify rapidly but it had been an invest for about a week or so, it didn't just pop out of no-where before landfall.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL092007_Humberto.pdf

"The genesis of Humberto can be traced to the remnants of a frontal trough (the same front that spawned Gabrielle) that moved offshore of south Florida in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on 5 September. This trough remained nearly stationary for a couple of days, then moved slowly west-northwestward for almost a week as high pressure built over the southeastern United States. The trough was located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on 11 September, and convection increased markedly near the trough axis on that day a couple hundred miles south of Galveston, Texas. Although thunderstorms diminished that night, a weak surface low had formed along the trough. Convection re-fired near the low early on 12 September, and was organized enough by 0900 UTC to estimate that a tropical depression had formed about 120 miles south of Galveston, Texas."

[perk]

18Z ensembles

http://img547.imageshack.us/img547/3681/9d8m.png

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Rock any thoughts on where Dorian might end up.

[northjaxpro]

Imho they should. Don't like the way this is trending... It's in the area where Andrew got sheared and was left for dead.

Definitely not saying it has that potential, but it does have potential to strengthen before it reaches Florida. That's all.

I asked above, I'll ask again. What was the most recent occurrence of a significant storm developing that had no model support? I put the limit at 5 years, but longer is ok. I honestly don't know, but in this day and age it seems like this would be something unheard of. Not even the Canadian develops this.

I don't remember the year but Humberto that formed off Texas coast was one that caught everyone off guard. There are other cases I need to go back but smaller systems tend to give models problems. I believe Marco which was one of the smallest storms ever and formed in BOC might have also been missed I can't remember. I will look back later.

Humberto was 1996. That storm is one my favorite systems to go back in the analog and study. Fascinating small but potent tropicall cyclone which set a record as the fastest intensifying system before landfall within 24 hours. I often find these small cyclones rather fascinating because as we again have seen with Dorian, the models have had an extremely difficult time trying to get a handle on this system.

[Canelaw99]

What image does wxman57 have in the event of regeneration

Yes, we need to find a funny/creative image for this situation....

I can't help but think of Monty Python and "I'm not quite dead yet" and "It's only a flesh wound."