ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ROCK]

yep nothing at the surface...just a wave.

but I do think Barbuda has a west wind.... or I have been told that more than a few times today....

[fci]

Only if you want them to be.

[beoumont]

SFLcane

Richard! Talk to me.. Mean looking wave

What Ozonepete and A. Dunn above said is about it. IF upper low weakens and or retreats and squeezes and becomes a weak shear zone before being overtaken by the growing outflow of a newly convective and continuing burst, go team go. If the upper low/ trough stalls, doesn't weaken anymore or expands, the current attempt at re-organization will end.

And yes, it is a well known fact that nighttime satellite pictures can fool-ya, and an optimist such as myself. Happened many times.

[boca]

I wonder if the NHC will keep 91L Dorian at 50%.

[ozonepete]

Another view of that satellite pass, with two images I merged together:

From: http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/data ... TBData.php
Image 1: http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/asca ... MBas88.png
Image 2: http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/asca ... MBas87.png

That pass missed the developing center which is around 20.7N 62.5 W now, and was further east when that pass was made..

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Or on the other side of the spectrum they could be showing multiple storms hitting the gulf coast week after week or lined up in the Atlantic like a bunch of planes waiting for landing at jfk. Just saying.

[CrazyC83]

I wonder if the NHC will keep 91L Dorian at 50%.

I think that is likely reasonable at this time. Maybe 60% but no more.

[ozonepete]

SFLcane

Richard! Talk to me.. Mean looking wave

What Ozonepete and A. Dunn above said is about it. IF upper low weakens and or retreats and squeezes and becomes a weak shear zone before being overtaken by the growing outflow of a newly convective and continuing burst, go team go. If the upper low/ trough stalls, doesn't weaken anymore or expands, the current attempt at re-organization will end.

And yes, it is a well known fact that nighttime satellite pictures can fool-ya, and an optimist such as myself. Happened many times.

That's it in a nutshell. With no upper air obs out there we are forced to just watch. And yes we need to wait for daylight.

[chaser1]

:uarrow: yep nothing at the surface...just a wave.

but I do think Barbuda has a west wind.... or I have been told that more than a few times today....

Holy crap??! Gone for a few hours and just got back and saw a WV loop of this thing.....Everything was looking good, some new bursting over center, recon about to arrive on site.....

Just look at this place? Everything is a mess..... clashing outflow boundries, dry cigar smoke ingested everywhere, let me guess, lowest surface pressure in the area, um 1018mb?? I'm sure there's upwelling too, right??

OK, who did it? Who made a mess of things while I was gone??

[JonathanBelles]

New Blog Post: http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... nd-hawaii/

[psyclone]

It still doesn't look like much to me... a few transient thunderstorms loosely arranged in a circle...just not much there. frankly I wish it would do something or just disappear. this is the tropical equivalent of a hung jury. at this point I'm ready for a verdict.

[FireRat]

ex-Dorian not looking too shabby tonight, still warrants close monitoring IMO. 50% sounds reasonable, maybe up to 70% if it continues improving appearance by morning. Should the convection persist through tomorrow afternoon then we might have Dorian back...we'll really just have to wait and see how the storm behaves over the next 12-18 hrs. Many systems in the past looked like they were coming back, only to just fall apart a few hours later, usually due to shear. It will largely depend on the ULL next to the system.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[FireRat]

Fair enough to say this thing is aiming for the general South Florida and Cuba region, the strength will be the biiig question.

[boca]

Either that I wake up in the morning and that ULL ripped it to shreds or the ULL weakened and filled in and 91L really starts to consolidate

[chaser1]

off topic for a sec........anyone know what time the UK updates??

[caneman]

It still doesn't look like much to me... a few transient thunderstorms loosely arranged in a circle...just not much there. frankly I wish it would do something or just disappear. this is the tropical equivalent of a hung jury. at this point I'm ready for a verdict.

I agree on all points neighbor.

[boca]

.... Or get off the pot,either it goes poof tomorrow for good or redevelops back into Dorian this waiting like like watching paint dry

[chaser1]

Would anyone happen to know what time the 0z UK updates?

[SapphireSea]

One real question that we seem to forget is the strong shortwave that will be approaching the US NE tomorrow. What will this energy do with the ULLs tomorrow is a real wildcard. Will this energy extend down and rip dorian up as well or produce a low shear environment ahead of it while it misses off north? Tomorrow afternoon will be critical it seems.

[Hurricane Alexis]

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...
IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. RECENT
SATELLITE-DERIVED SURFACE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT THIS DISTURBANCE
DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND SURFACE
PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION TO OCCUR
TODAY...BEFORE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THE
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
TODAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE
THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.