ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[brunota2003]

Yes, it seems 306 returned to base and they switched out with 301. Not sure why, perhaps it was a comms issue (just guessing based off of the major delays in data earlier).

[ROCK]

yep Chantal was just to fast to maintain....looks like she opened up...to me anyway...IMO...those outflow boundaries earlier were a tell tale sign IMO....

[SouthFloridawx]

Radar from PR

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=JUA&loop=yes

[artist]

Radar from PR

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=JUA&loop=yes

may still be closed? It appears it is just on the edge of the radar and at that angle and height of the radar, I don't know how to determine if we are seeing it all properly.

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100455
AF301 0403A CHANTAL HDOB 05 20130710
044600 1634N 06630W 9080 00998 0183 +191 +162 133044 044 033 001 00
044630 1633N 06631W 9080 00997 0181 +195 +156 136044 044 033 000 00
044700 1632N 06632W 9080 00997 0182 +190 +165 134044 044 032 001 00
044730 1631N 06633W 9088 00988 0182 +185 +173 132043 045 033 000 00
044800 1630N 06635W 9076 01000 0181 +190 +168 135045 045 034 001 00
044830 1629N 06636W 9075 01002 0181 +186 +175 133045 046 036 001 00
044900 1627N 06637W 9081 00994 0179 +191 +167 133044 045 033 001 00
044930 1626N 06638W 9080 00996 0178 +200 +156 134039 043 032 000 00
045000 1625N 06639W 9078 00996 0177 +197 +158 134040 041 031 002 00
045030 1624N 06640W 9080 00994 0176 +196 +162 135038 039 030 001 00
045100 1623N 06642W 9080 00995 0176 +196 +165 132037 038 032 000 00
045130 1622N 06643W 9080 00993 0175 +196 +171 130035 037 032 002 00
045200 1621N 06644W 9084 00990 0176 +194 +170 131036 037 032 001 00
045230 1620N 06645W 9080 00994 0177 +194 +172 130036 038 031 001 00
045300 1618N 06646W 9080 00996 0177 +196 +172 129039 040 033 001 00
045330 1617N 06647W 9080 00994 0174 +204 +165 127039 040 032 001 00
045400 1616N 06649W 9079 00994 0174 +200 +177 129038 041 033 000 00
045430 1615N 06650W 9080 00993 0174 +197 +183 131033 036 032 000 00
045500 1614N 06651W 9080 00994 0174 +195 +185 134032 033 033 000 00
045530 1613N 06652W 9080 00993 0173 +196 +186 134032 033 034 000 00
$$
;

[fci]

Nice analysis Chaser!!

I might add (unscientifically) that once the system opened up into a wave it would most likely not regenerate into anything significant. I know that people will look back at somewhat rare examples where my opinion was wrong (Andrew, Jeanne and a few others); but those are pretty rare exceptions and many more times than not; when a system degenerates into a wave, it is history.
That doesn't mean we don't watch it for the possibility.....

[ROCK]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us


120hr....the NAVGEM usually sticks at 120hr for about 10 minutes or so every night....

[fci]

yep Chantal was just to fast to maintain....looks like she opened up...to me anyway...IMO...those outflow boundaries earlier were a tell tale sign IMO....

Plus the warming of the cloud tops and separation of convection from the center......

[ROCK]

Nice analysis Chaser!!

I might add (unscientifically) that once the system opened up into a wave it would most likely not regenerate into anything significant. I know that people will look back at somewhat rare examples where my opinion was wrong (Andrew, Jeanne and a few others); but those are pretty rare exceptions and many more times than not; when a system degenerates into a wave, it is history.
That doesn't mean we don't watch it for the possibility.....

remember Chris? got decapitated and the low level center just remained exposed until it winded down...maybe looking at the same thing....

[artist]

they are flying lower than the last flight.

[Evil Jeremy]

[SapphireSea]

Radar from PR

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=JUA&loop=yes

may still be closed? It appears it is just on the edge of the radar and at that angle and height of the radar, I don't know how to determine if we are seeing it all properly.

Doubt it's closed. I see higher clouds and lower clouds being left behind and just flowing towards the east. Recon is the only real way to tell, but I am pretty confident that they won't find much at the surface. If the convection ball behind the system collapses completely during maxima, I guess Bones can be beamed down as early as a few minutes to couple hours from now.

[chaser1]

...by the way, sorry about the poor grammer & typos . That's what I get to post a long explanation via a cell phone (and using the speech technology for text/typing)

[ROCK]

yep Chantal was just to fast to maintain....looks like she opened up...to me anyway...IMO...those outflow boundaries earlier were a tell tale sign IMO....

Plus the warming of the cloud tops and separation of convection from the center......

yep....the EURO seemed to got on to this possibility more than a few runs ago.....

[AtlanticWind]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

CMC

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100505
AF301 0403A CHANTAL HDOB 06 20130710
045600 1612N 06653W 9080 00991 //// +187 //// 136033 034 034 000 01
045630 1611N 06654W 9080 00992 //// +190 //// 137035 036 033 002 01
045700 1609N 06656W 9079 00992 //// +181 //// 148031 035 033 001 01
045730 1608N 06657W 9079 00989 //// +193 //// 145029 029 033 001 01
045800 1607N 06658W 9079 00989 //// +188 //// 141027 028 035 002 01
045830 1606N 06659W 9074 00994 0175 +193 //// 141025 027 035 007 01
045900 1605N 06700W 9084 00986 //// +193 //// 140027 028 034 003 01
045930 1604N 06701W 9084 00984 //// +195 //// 142029 030 029 000 01
050000 1603N 06702W 9080 00989 0167 +196 +195 139029 029 026 001 00
050030 1602N 06704W 9082 00986 //// +192 //// 140028 029 027 001 01
050100 1601N 06705W 9080 00988 0167 +193 +190 145028 029 027 000 01
050130 1600N 06706W 9080 00987 0166 +195 +186 144029 029 026 000 00
050200 1559N 06707W 9080 00988 0167 +195 +188 148027 029 025 000 00
050230 1558N 06708W 9082 00984 0166 +197 +187 148027 028 025 000 00
050300 1557N 06710W 9080 00987 0166 +195 +188 148026 027 025 000 00
050330 1556N 06711W 9077 00988 0165 +195 +188 149026 027 025 000 00
050400 1555N 06712W 9081 00984 0165 +195 +189 150026 026 025 000 00
050430 1554N 06714W 9080 00986 0165 +195 +189 150024 025 025 000 00
050500 1553N 06715W 9081 00985 0165 +195 +189 147023 024 025 000 00
050530 1553N 06716W 9081 00984 0165 +194 +188 148023 024 024 000 00
$$
;

[SapphireSea]

yep Chantal was just to fast to maintain....looks like she opened up...to me anyway...IMO...those outflow boundaries earlier were a tell tale sign IMO....

Plus the warming of the cloud tops and separation of convection from the center......

yep....the EURO seemed to got on to this possibility more than a few runs ago.....

EURO never really saw anything at the center. Then again, some people said it, and I understand them. EURO is more about synoptics. Unless Chantel got to synoptic scale it might not reflect. I believe EURO closed this off maybe once or twice in the past few days, and lost it.

[Hurricane Alexis]

We'll see with recon if the low is still closed within the next couple of hours. Hopefully they go SW this time.

[Evil Jeremy]

[ROCK]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

either whats left of the center is under PR with that tiny bit of convection or it tried to re-form to the south....that might be just the MLC...decoupled....